Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
612 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front to the south of the region should dissipate
today. By mid to late week, surface high pressure will shift
into the Atlantic, while weak troughing forms inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The upper-level anticyclone that has been positioned well
offshore of the Southeast U.S. for the past several days will
begin to build west today and replace the mid-level weakness
that has been in place since last Friday. The atmosphere will
remain modestly unstable through the afternoon with a plume
rich, tropical moisture featuring PWATs holding in the
2.30-2.65". Similar to the past few days, passing bits of
vorticity propagating along the western periphery of the upper
high will bring several more bands/waves to showers/tstms to the
area. Pops today peak 70-90% with 30-50% tonight. Models have
been struggling on the exact timing, coverage and placement of
these convective clusters which is impacting the ability to pin
down where the corridors of heaviest rainfall will set up.

The highest rain totals since Friday have been mostly confined
to the coastal counties which should continue again today. Some
areas have seen as much as foot of rain over the past several
days alone which is downright incredible for August outside of a
tropical cyclone. Although the net QPF will feature lower
overall values through the afternoon with an overall more
progressive convective pattern, HREF neighborhood probabilities
still support localized amounts >4" where pockets of convective
training occur. The risk for flash flooding will remain
elevated as a result, especially in the more urbanized areas
around Charleston, Beaufort, Savannah and Hinesville. The Flood
Watch for the coastal counties has therefore been extended
until 6 PM. This may be a bit long for parts of the Georgia
coast where much of the convection may push north of there by
late morning/early afternoon, so parts of the watch may need to
be cleared early. The risk for heavy rainfall/flooding will
linger along the lower South Carolina coast until mid-late
afternoon. Convection may very well well redevelop over the
Atlantic overnight into the early morning hours Tuesday, but
current indications suggest coverage will be considerably less
than the past several nights.

Highs today will range from the lower-mid 80s across the South
Carolina Lowcountry with mid-upper 80s across Southeast
Georgia. Even a few spots near the Altamaha River could reach 90
with heat indices of 100-103. Overnight lows will range from
the lower 70s well inland to the upper 70s/near 80 at the
beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure aloft centered over the western Atlantic will
extend into the southeastern states on Tuesday, with the center
slowly shifting westward towards the coastline through Thursday.
Similarly, high pressure will prevail at the surface. This
pattern will support a return to a more typical summertime
pattern of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms and hot
and humid conditions. Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon, with CAPE values around 2000
J/kg. There is also the threat of locally heavy rainfall, with
PWAT values around 2". Heat index values are forecast to reach
triple digits across portions of the region through the period,
however the current forecast keeps conditions shy of Heat
Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will dominate at the surface and aloft into the
weekend. This pattern should yield a typical summer-time pattern
with afternoon thunderstorms and hot and humid conditions. Heat
index values will reach triple digits, with 100-105F in the
forecast, shy of Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
11/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Unsettled conditions will persist at the
terminals today with bands of showers/tstms poised to cross the
area. Conditions look to remain largely VFR, except MVFR during
periods of rain. Bulk of shower/tstm activity looks to clear
KSAV by mid-morning and mid-afternoon at KCHS/KJZI. Various
TEMPO groups were used to highlight MVFR conditions in RA during
these times. Risk for tstms is there, but probabilities are too
low to mention at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be
possible due to afternoon showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: No concerns. East/southeast winds 15 kt or less
will prevail with seas 2-4 ft. Vsbys could drop below 1 NM at
times in pockets of heavy rainfall.

Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will prevail over the local
waters through the week. The forecast features winds SE/S around 10
to 15 knots. Some gusts could approach 20 knots along the coastline
due to the afternoon sea breeze. Seas should average 2 to 3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ116>119-138>141.
SC...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
601 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-121015-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
601 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

See the Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook for more information
about the following possible hazardous weather:

- Excessive Rainfall

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

&&

The Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo/?wfo=chs

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1102 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     Flash Flood      2 NNW Charleston        32.81N  79.95W
08/11/2025                   Charleston         SC   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reported Rutledge Ave closed due to
            flooding between Peachtree St and Grove St.

&&

Event Number CHS2500879

DAK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1106 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Charleston        32.80N  79.94W
08/11/2025                   Charleston         SC   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reports roads closed due to flooding
            at intersection of Huger St and Meeting St.

&&

Event Number CHS2500880

DAK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1108 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 AM     Flash Flood      1 W Charleston          32.78N  79.95W
08/11/2025                   Charleston         SC   County Official

            Online scanner broadcast indicated that an occupied
            ambulance on Johnathan Lucas Street was flooded.

&&

Event Number CHS2500881

NED

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