Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
256 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will linger near or just south of the area this week,
while high pressure remains centered well to the north. Low
pressure could develop off the Southeast U.S. coast on Thursday
and persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rest of Today: The synoptic pattern is ushering deep moisture
into our area (PWATS 2-2.25"). Combined with lift from a front
to our south and some mid-level forcing, will generate plenty of
convection this afternoon. While there is modest instability,
shear will remain weak. So the risk of widespread severe
thunderstorms is low. But a few stronger ones are possible. The
main concern will be the heavy downpours due to the high PWATs
and relatively slow storm motions. Some spots could get a quick
1-2" of rain. This is backed up by the hi-res models and the
HREF. So flooding of low-lying and poorly drained areas will
need to be monitored, along with the potential for pockets of
flash flooding. At this typing, WPC has our area in a Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall.

Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of a trough across the
Midwest, with an axis extending into the Deep South. At the
surface, our area will remain between a stationary front to our
south and High pressure to our north. Convection could persist
overnight over land areas. Though, it should be isolated to
scattered in coverage. Otherwise, the bulk of the convection is
expected to remain offshore. Some could brush along the
immediate coast. Lows will be in the upper 60s well inland to
the mid 70s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short term guidance indicates a H5 trough advancing across the
Southeast U.S. on Wednesday. At the sfc, a ridge should remain
centered over the western Carolinas, with a wavy stationary front
along the coast. SBCAPE is forecast to increase between 2000-3000
J/kg along the coast, especially if a coastal trough develops.
Latest run of the HREF and HRRR, thunderstorms should develop in the
afternoon along the sea breeze, especially along the SC coast.
During the rest of the afternoon and evening, numerous to widespread
showers and thunderstorms should advance inland. High temperatures
are forecast to range from the upper 80s along the coast the mid 80s
inland.

Thursday and Friday, the forecast area is forecast to remain in a
weakness, between a ridge over the western Atlantic and another
ridge centered over Southern Plains. Each afternoon, a weak sea
breeze should develop during the afternoon, pushing inland through
the evening. In addition, NHC has highlighted the Southeast U.S.
Atlantic waters with a 40 percent chance of tropical cyclone
formation over the next 7-days. WPC sfc pressure maps indicate that
the spot the low is expected to remain off shore off the GA/SC
coast. High temperatures are forecast to range in the mid to upper
80s. Low temperatures should favor values in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This weekend, uncertainty remain high, but the low off the coast
should track to the north. The forecast area should remain under
deep moisture, PW values around 2 inches. Starting early next week,
H5 ridging should increase across the region, with 595 dm H5 heights
across the region by Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. Temperatures
should gradually warm through the period, with highs ranging in the
90s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convection may cause TEMPO MVFR visibilities at CHS and SAV for
the next few hours, with VCTS or VCSH persisting through the
evening. Convection should dissipate late in the evening and
overnight. MVFR ceilings are then expected overnight through
early Wednesday morning, followed by improving conditions.

Extended Aviation Forecast: As a front stalls nearby this weekend,
brief flight restrictions will be possible as showers and/or
thunderstorms develop along this boundary through early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of Today and Tonight: Our coastal waters remain sandwiched
between a stationary front to our south and High pressure to
our north. This will support E to NE winds sustained at 5-10 kt,
easing late tonight. Seas will be 2-4 ft this evening, subsiding
to 1-3 ft overnight.

Wednesday through Sunday: The sfc pattern will support steady
northeast winds between 10-15 kts, with occasional gusts to 20 kts.
Wave heights should generally range between 2 to 3 ft. In addition,
NHC has highlighted the Southeast U.S. Atlantic waters with a 40
percent chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7-days.
WPC sfc pressure maps indicate that the spot the low is expected to
remain off shore off the GA/SC coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As we approach Full Moon on August 9th, the evening high tide
will be rising above/near 6.5 ft MLLW (action stage) at the
Charleston tide gauge, while remaining well below action stage at
the Fort Pulaski tide gauge. Minor coastal flooding may be possible
on Thursday and Friday along the Charleston coastline.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
330 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-061930-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
330 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

See the Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook for more information
about the following possible hazardous weather:

- Excessive Rainfall

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

See the Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook for more information
about the following possible hazardous weather:

- Coastal Flood

&&

The Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo/?wfo=chs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

SCZ040-042-052130-
Allendale SC-Hampton SC-
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALLENDALE AND HAMPTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fairfax, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Allendale, Hampton, Lake Warren State Park, Varnville, Estill,
  Fairfax, Brunson, Gifford, Sycamore and Luray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 8151 3312 8119 3301 8107 3290 8098
      3269 8140 3273 8142 3275 8141 3277 8143
      3278 8142 3278 8143 3279 8142 3283 8143
      3283 8142 3285 8144 3284 8146 3285 8146
      3287 8145 3288 8148 3290 8146 3290 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 259DEG 10KT 3292 8123

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

NED

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