Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
639 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The next strong low pressure system/cold front brings
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms through this
morning, which could produce damaging winds and an isolated
tornado, mainly in the Eastern Midlands. Outside of this line,
strong winds gusting to over 40 mph are expected with a Wind
Advisory in effect today. Dry conditions to return for the end
of the week, with the next potential for rain coming again this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning.

- Risk for severe storms mainly in Eastern Midlands.

- Strong winds ahead of and behind line with Wind Advisory in
  effect until 7pm tonight.

The line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold
front is now entering eastern GA this morning as southeasterly
winds have begun to pick up to 10-15 mph with gusts toward 20-25
mph being seen. The environment ahead of this line is
characterized by 60-70 kts of southerly flow around 1k feet as
a very robust low level jet is in place and a mid level trough
that has become more negatively titled. This has brought very
impressive hodographs across GA where the 6z VAD profile at JGX
showed sfc-1km storm relative helicity on the order of 870
m^2/s^2 with strong low level curvature. There continues to be a
lack of instability with this line and thus this is being
driven by the strong cold front behind it, impressive shear, and
a strong low level jet. As the low toward the Upper Great Lakes
has continued to occlude the line has generally slowed down as
the frontal forcing has weakened some but current thinking has
the line of showers and possible thunderstorms entering the CSRA
around 11-13Z, the central Midlands around 12-14Z, and down
into the eastern Midlands around 14-16Z. Upstream observations
have shown some of the strongest gusts are just ahead of the
line where gusts upwards of 40-50 mph have been seen where
isolated near 50-60 mph are still possible, but gusts have
recently down trended slightly into parts of GA. The SPC still
has most of the CWA in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms (2
of out 5) with the far eastern Midlands in an enhanced risk (3
out of 5). As the line passes, expect the strong gusts discussed
above, moderate to heavy rain for an hour or so, and the still
very slight chance of an isolated spin up tornado. This tornado
risk is mainly confined toward the far eastern Midlands where
model guidance shows some instability building ahead of the line
due to day time heating. This line quickly moves out of the
region by 18-20z with QPF amounts between 0.50" to 0.75"
expected.

Behind the line, strong 15-20 mph winds turn out of the
southwest and eventually west with gusts to 30-40 mph possible
with a strong pressure gradient and cold advection setting in
behind the initial front as a Wind Advisory is in effect until
7pm this evening. Some high res guidance has suggested enough
moisture may linger into the afternoon and early evening for a
couple light showers but moisture seems very shallow and no
accumulation seems likely from this so have trended the region
mostly dry. Afternoon highs should still reach into the low 70s
for most as the secondary cold front does not pass until this
evening where even stronger cold advection then moves in and
overnight temperatures then fall into the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry conditions through Friday, with elevated fire weather
  concerns through the end of the week.

Behind the cold front, a return to a drier airmass will occur
through Friday. Pwat values are expected to remain below a half
an inch through Friday, then begin rising once again to around
an inch Friday night ahead of the next approaching system. With
winds expected to remain strong through Thursday, do expect to
see elevated fire weather concerns once again through the end of
the week. Winds will diminish into Thursday night, then pick
back up again through the day Friday. As for temperatures,
cooler readings on Thursday behind the front, with highs mainly
in the mid to upper 50s. Thursday will see temperatures moderate
back into the middle 60s, which is very close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Rain chances increase again over the weekend.
- Dry and turning warmer to start off next week.

Another area of low pressure will move across the southeastern
States Saturday night through Sunday. This will lead to
additional increase in moisture Saturday, then a reintroduction
of rain chances Saturday night into Sunday as the system moves
through the area. High pressure then builds in to start off the
work week. Temperatures will begin to moderate through the
middle of the week, with highs back into the middle 70s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR conditions expected as line of showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm moves through this morning with a chance of IFR
conditions with passage of the line. Return to VFR expected
during afternoon and into evening.

The line of strong showers is moving into the CSRA right now
and near AGS/DNL as ceilings have reached MVFR at all sites.
Southeasterly to southerly winds have picked up with gusts up to
30-35 kts being noted ahead of the line as winds near 1,000 ft
are 60-65 kts from the CAE VAD profile. As the line of showers
moves through, ceilings may briefly lower near 700-800 ft with
visibilities between 1-3 miles and thus a brief period of IFR
conditions could be possible with isolated gusts near 40 kts,
but after the line passes, a return to MVFR conditions then VFR
conditions are expected as we head toward the afternoon. The
line should impact CAE/CUB by 12-14z and OGB by 13-15z before
moving out of the region after 17-19z where a brief lightening
of winds maybe possible. The biggest challenge is thunderstorm
potential mainly near OGB as no lightning is being noted at the
moment but as the line nears the eastern Midlands, model
guidance suggests some intensification will be possible with
more instability moving in. Current thinking is this
intensification and thus thunderstorm potential will not fully
materialize until east of OGB. The rest of the day sees gusty
15-20 kt winds from the southwest and then the west by the end
of the period with gusts to 25-35 kts likely as the region
likely stays mostly dry except for maybe a couple stray showers
and some lingering clouds near 5,000 ft.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry and breezy Thursday followed by
moisture increasing by the weekend leading to the potential for
additional restrictions late Saturday and into Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Depending on the amount of rain received today, elevated fire
concerns will continue through Thursday and possibly Friday with
gusty winds expected behind the cold front along with drier
air. The South Carolina Forest Commission continues a Burn Ban
for the entire state of South Carolina until further notice.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

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