Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
150 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather potential increases somewhat starting today,
with additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
both Sunday and Monday as an active weather pattern develops.
Conditions are favorable for showers and thunderstorms to push
through the Southeast US during the next seven days, though we
should transition to less organized summertime pulse convection
by late next week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Severe thunderstorms possible this evening
- Damaging winds are the primary threat
- It will likely be the hottest day of 2025 so far

Overview: A line of strong thunderstorms will race across the
Deep South today and could push into eastern GA and central SC
this evening, likely after 6pm. The line may be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area but could still create swaths of
damaging winds and power outages. Confidence is highest in
severe weather in the CSRA and south of I-20 where moisture and
instability are greater.

Discussion: Ongoing convection to our west is associated with a
shortwave trough which will cut across the Deep South today. A
hot, moist air mass preceding the line of storms will support
strengthening as the MCS moves across the northern/central
portions of the Gulf Coast States. High temperatures in the mid
90s today and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will drive
mlCAPE values to near or over 2000 J/kg. A slot of dry air in WV
imagery can be seen in the SC Upstate into the Piedmont. This
may help steer the MCS further south towards the higher theta-e
air in the CSRA and southern SC/GA this evening. Timing is
commonly something that CAMs struggle with in cold-pool driven
events and this seems to be no exception with the 12Z HRRR at
least an hour or two too slow compared to obs. That said, while
CAMs currently show a weakening MCS entering the FA from the
west, well after peak heating, in reality we may see storms roll
in prior to the near-surface layer completely stabilizing. So
for now we can expect the threat of damaging winds to remain in
place for central SC and the CSRA with higher confidence in the
southern half. Wind damage from the line of storms will be the
primary hazard type with low-level helicity and shear
unfavorable for tornadoes. The line of storms will continue
eastward through the evening but new storms could redevelop
overnight so we kept a chance of thunder in through early Sunday
morning. The severe threat with storms that redevelop overnight
is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Severe weather possible again on Sunday and Monday.

- The primary severe hazard both days will be damaging wind
  gusts.

A series of shortwaves will likely trigger the development of
strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the forecast
area during the short term. The entire CWA remains in a Slight
(2/5) risk for severe weather on Day 2 (Sunday) and Day 3
(Monday) with damaging wind gusts being identified as the
primary severe weather risk. While confidence in exact timing of
the convection remains low, latest guidance shows the passage of
the aforementioned shortwaves Sunday afternoon and evening and
again Monday evening into early Monday night. The second
shortwave will be further supported by the approach of a larger
trough moving into the Great Lakes region. This would suggest
that while the lift may be stronger on Monday, the timing of the
shortwave on Sunday may be more favorable for severe weather.
CAMs indicate that the greatest risk for thunderstorms on
Sunday will be along and south/east of I-20 but any lingering
mesoscale boundaries from today's weather could aid in
convective development, so the entire region should remain
weather aware both Sunday and Monday. There should be more
clouds around during the short term, especially Sunday, which
may play a role in thunderstorm development in addition to
daytime temperatures, which will likely be cooler than today,
especially in the northern and western CWA. Winds may be gusty
at times on Sunday, especially on Lake Murray but a Lake Wind
Advisory does not appear to be needed at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the extended
  period as the overall pattern becomes increasingly summer
  like.

An upper trough passes to our north Tuesday into Tuesday night,
being replaced by upper ridging for the remainder of the long
term. With the extra support in place, Tuesday may be another
day favorable for organized showers and thunderstorms. Beyond
this, temperatures should gradually climb or hold steady with
more summer like heat and humidity. With an upper ridge moving
overhead, any convection will likely be disorganized and limited
in aerial coverage, especially late in the extended. A front
may stall somewhere across the region for the mid to late week
period, which would aid in convective development. With hot
temperatures inland, the sea breeze may also trigger a few
showers and thunderstorms, especially near the lingering frontal
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the afternoon before
thunderstorms move across the region this evening.

VFR conditions continue this afternoon with only some fair
weather cumulus. Gusty winds out of the southwest are expected
as well with some gusts to around 25 knots likely. Conditions
deteriorate this evening as a strong line of storms pushes
towards the area from the west. A prob30 group for TSRA is
included for now as timing confidence is relatively low.
Overall, confidence is higher in impacts at AGS and DNL compared
to the other TAF sites. Outflow boundaries and shortwave
activity may also allow thunderstorms to redevelop late tonight
and early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will pick back up around
15Z Sunday out of the SW with gusts around 25 kts in the
afternoon and more thunderstorms possibly, especially in the
eastern FA near OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in place
through mid-week, leading to potential early morning
restrictions and diurnal convection each day. Thunderstorms over
the weekend may also bring restrictions along with gusty and
erratic winds.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&