Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

910 
WWUS41 KBUF 100612
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
112 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

NYZ006>008-102015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.251210T0900Z-251211T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
112 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations 8 to 16 
  inches across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and 
  western foothills of the Adirondacks, with 3 to 6 inches in the 
  surrounding lower elevations.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest 
  accumulations will be across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill 
  Plateau and western Adirondacks.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-101500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251210T1500Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
112 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-102015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251212T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
112 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Localized lake effect snow tonight through Thursday 
  night. Total snow accumulations over two days of 7 to 14 inches, 
  snow accumulation coming in a number of different batches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow, 
  mainly later Wednesday night through Thursday.

* WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western 
  Southern Tier.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  will impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will transition to plain rain and 
  drizzle this morning, first across the lower terrain near Lake 
  Erie, and with increasing temperatures, across inland lower 
  elevations during the day. Hill tops may remain as a wet snow 
  through the event, until the early evening when a colder airmass 
  transitions precipitation to a fluffier snow for all locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-102015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0015.251211T0600Z-251212T1200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
112 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations 
  of 7 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows. 
  Winds could gust as high as 35 mph producing blowing and drifting 
  snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could bring rapidly changing road 
conditions and visibilities. Localized travel problems will be 
possible.

&&

$$

Thomas

570 
WWUS41 KBUF 101506
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1006 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

NYZ001-002-010-011-101615-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251210T1500Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
1006 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Snow has begun to mix with rain and will continue to change over to 
rain through early this afternoon...with any additional accumulation 
through late afternoon expected to be minimal. For this reason...the 
advisory has been allowed to expire.

$$

NYZ006>008-110315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-251211T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1006 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations 8 to 16 
  inches across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and 
  western foothills of the Adirondacks, with 3 to 6 inches in the 
  surrounding lower elevations.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest 
  accumulations will be across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill 
  Plateau and western Adirondacks.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-110315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251212T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
1006 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Localized lake effect snow tonight through Thursday 
  night. Total snow accumulations over two days of 7 to 14 inches, 
  snow accumulation coming in a number of different batches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow, 
  mainly later Wednesday night through Thursday.

* WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western 
  Southern Tier.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will transition to plain rain and 
  drizzle this morning, first across the lower terrain near Lake 
  Erie, and with increasing temperatures, across inland lower 
  elevations during the day. Hill tops may remain as a wet snow 
  through the event, until the early evening when a colder airmass 
  transitions precipitation to a fluffier snow for all locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-110315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0015.251211T0600Z-251212T1200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1006 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations 
  of 7 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows. 
  Winds could gust as high as 35 mph producing blowing and drifting 
  snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could bring rapidly changing road 
conditions and visibilities. Localized travel problems will be 
possible.

&&

$$

JJR

083 
WWUS41 KBUF 101749
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1249 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

NYZ004-005-110915-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0015.251211T0600Z-251212T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0011.251211T0600Z-251212T1200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1249 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 5 
  to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. Areas of blowing snow will 
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will 
  impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-110915-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-251211T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1249 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches 
  across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western 
  Adirondack foothills, with 2 to 4 inches in the surrounding lower 
  elevations. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest 
  accumulations will be across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill 
  Plateau and western Adirondacks.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will 
  impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-110915-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251212T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
1249 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, then localized lake effect snow tonight through 
  Thursday night. Additional snow accumulations over two days of 6 
  to 12 inches, with the snow accumulation coming in a number of 
  different batches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce 
  areas of blowing and drifting snow, mainly later tonight through 
  Thursday.

* WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western 
  Southern Tier.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of rain and snow across the lower 
  elevations and snow across the higher terrain this afternoon will 
  transition back to all snow early this evening, with a fluffier 
  snow then expected thereafter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JJR

822 
WWUS41 KBUF 110630
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

NYZ019-020-085-111900-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251212T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-251212T0900Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and
Springville
130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 
  10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high 
  as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and far Southern Erie Counties. 
  The greatest accumulations will be across the higher terrain 
  inland from Lake Erie and well south of the Buffalo Southtowns.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday 
  morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-111900-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-251212T1200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 
  10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high 
  as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties. The greatest 
  accumulations will focus across far eastern Wayne and northern 
  Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday 
  morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-111800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-251211T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches, greatest 
  across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  produce blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest additional 
  accumulations will focus across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill 
  Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Thursday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-111900-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251212T1200Z/
Monroe-
Including the cities of Rochester
130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Snow accumulations 2 to 5 inches in the 
  most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Monroe County. The greatest accumulations will likely be 
  along the Route 104 corridor, especially east of Rochester.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult at times with snow covered 
  roads and reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-021-111900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251212T0900Z/
Wyoming-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw and Wellsville
130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 4 to 7 
  inches in the most persistent bands. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph will produce blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

834 
WWUS41 KBUF 111500
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1000 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

NYZ006>008-111600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-251211T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1000 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

While some light snow showers will linger across the higher terrain 
into this afternoon, significant accumulations are no longer 
expected, therefore the Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled.

$$

NYZ004-005-120300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-251212T1200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1000 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 4 to 
  8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high 
  as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties. The greatest 
  accumulations will focus across far eastern Wayne and northern 
  Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday 
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-085-120300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-251212T0900Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and
Springville
1000 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 4 to 
  8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high 
  as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and far Southern Erie Counties. 
  The greatest accumulations will be across the higher terrain 
  inland from Lake Erie and well south of the Buffalo Southtowns.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday 
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-120300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251212T1200Z/
Monroe-
Including the cities of Rochester
1000 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 4 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 
  35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Monroe County. The greatest accumulations will likely be 
  along the Route 104 corridor, especially east of Rochester.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult at times with snow covered 
  roads and reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  the Thursday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-021-120300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-251212T0900Z/
Wyoming-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw and Wellsville
1000 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 3 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent bands. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph will produce blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Thursday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
707 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Two waves of low pressure will pass by our region, with the first to
arrive this afternoon in the form of widespread, but light, synoptic
snow. Southwest winds behind this wave will deposit several inches
of lake effect snow downwind of Lake Erie on a southwest flow this
evening and into tonight, with a few inches of snow also falling
through the Saint Lawrence Valley off Lake Ontario tonight. A more
potent storm system will arrive later tonight, with snow and gusty
winds, with this snow mixing with rain late tonight and Wednesday
across lower terrain, while hills tops may remain as just snow
through the event, with this snow heavy at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radars this early morning display light lake effect snow,
on a low level wind convergent boundary, with this activity expected
to drift northward through the morning as deeper southerly flow
develops. Accumulations will be a fresh coating of snow. Otherwise a
cold start to the day with many locations in the single digits, to
double digits below zero east of Lake Ontario.

Attention then turns to the west where a shortwave trough is passing
across the Western Great Lakes. This feature will being widespread,
but light, snow across our region this afternoon. Considering the
better low level lift will remain well to our west along the track
of the surface low through the Central Great Lakes and the
progressive nature of this shortwave trough, just a 3-4 hour window
of light to moderate snow is expected for our region, with just an
inch or two of snow accumulation.

The exceptions will be northeast of the eastern Great Lakes where a
southwest flow this late afternoon and through the evening, combined
with 850 hPa temperatures around -8C and lake induced equilibrium
levels around 5K will bring a band of lake effect snow. This snow
may be slow to develop off Lake Erie, with plenty of dry air in the
snow DGZ, but a return of ambient moisture by the evening hours
should allow for several inches of snow to accumulate northeast of
Lake Erie, mainly north of a line from Buffalo to Batavia. A more
favorable moisture profile off Lake Ontario, with a more southerly
component to the flow likely to keep this band north of
Watertown...with a few inches of snow accumulating through the SLV.
A southerly flow will carry such lake effect snowbands northward
into Canada...this as the next storm system bears down upon our
region later in the night. More on that in the short term section
below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Model consensus is to track a slowly deepening storm system just to
the north of Lake Erie and near the northern shoreline of Lake
Ontario late tonight and through the day Wednesday.

Vertical accent ahead of a stronger shortwave trough, combined with
convergent lift along a 40 to 50 knot LLJ will bring a period of
precipitation across our region, starting just past midnight tonight
for the Southern Tier and then by daybreak east of Lake Ontario.

Thermal profiles display precipitation likely to start as all snow,
but a warm front carried northward by this strong LLJ and advancing
shortwave trough will transition the snow to plain rain, first
across the lower elevations near Lake Erie late tonight, and then as
the warm front expands northward across our region Wednesday, all
regions except for the hills tops of SW NYS and the Tug Hill will
likely see a transition to plain rain for a period of time.

While thermal profiles display low chances for freezing rain during
this transition, there is increasing concern that a lag time in a
frozen road surface to warm above freezing, that an icy glaze may
occur on untreated roads, bridges and other sheltered areas.

Overall rain amounts around a quarter to a third of an inch will
ripen the snowpack, but flooding concerns will be low.

Higher terrain thermal profiles display precipitation likely to
remain all snow. This will allow several inches to accumulate on the
higher terrain of SW NYS, while a longer duration, slightly higher
SWE of the snow and upslope enhanced QPF effects east of Lake
Ontario will potentially allow for snow to accumulate more than 7
inches. Will continue a winter storm watch for areas east of Lake
Ontario, while issuing a winter weather advisory for SW NYS
counties.

The other concern Wednesday will be strong wind gusts. With this
system passing so close to our region, models still have slight
variations of the placement of the axis of the LLJ, with the NAM
tracking the low slightly farther to the north and deepening the
surface low the greatest, allowing the stronger wind field to reach
northward into our region. The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian are not as
deep with the surface low, and track the low just slightly southward
of the NAM, with the track of the low along the northern Lake
Ontario shoreline with a slightly weaker wind flow aloft. For now
will continue with wind gusts up to 45 mph northeast of Lake Erie,
with slightly weaker gusts inland and northeast of Lake
Ontario...though the possibility of stronger gusts remain if the NAM
with its stronger wind field verifies.

A cold front will push across our region during the late afternoon
and evening hours, with cold air advection changing mixed
precipitation back to plain snow, with lake effect snowbands then
forming on a west-northwest flow. There is the typical uncertainty
with wind direction as models still have slightly different tracks
of the departing surface low and orientation of the remaining low
level winds, but at this time expect the potential for moderate snow
accumulations across the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and
near or just east of Rochester to Oswego County off Lake
Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another reinforcing shot of colder air and round of lake effect snow
on tap for Thursday in the wake of the cold frontal passage. A gusty
west to west-northwest flow will direct lake effect plumes east and
east-southeast of the lakes. Moderate accumulations still look
plausible with the highest accumulations off Lake Erie across
southern Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties...while off Lake
Ontario the highest accumulations are expected east of Rochester
over to Oswego County, and across Tug Hill where upslope snows will
help boost totals there. Temperatures will plunge back below average
with daytime highs around 10 degrees below average.

Clipper system pulls away from the area Thursday night, with low
level westerly flow lessening through Friday. Lake snows will wind
down through the overnight with another inch or two possible across
these same areas. High pressure sliding by to the south will try to
dry things out for the end of the work week, however a cold westerly
flow may keep some nuisance light snow showers going east of the
lakes Friday.

Another Clipper will slide east, just north of the upper Great Lakes
Friday night before shearing out across Quebec on Saturday, with
just some light lake effect snow showers continuing east and east-
northeast of the lakes. Mainly dry weather expected outside of LE to
start the weekend.

Models continue to advertise another system in the Clipper pipeline
moving southeast toward the lower Great Lakes region for late
Saturday and Sunday with potential synoptic and/or lake effect snow
possible depending on the track of the system. Northwest flow LE
snow showers may persist into Monday, however model guidance
diverges considerably heading into the start of next week. Better
confidence lies with temperatures during this timeframe, with fairly
good chances of another shot of arctic air invading the lower Great
Lakes and Northeast for the finish of the weekend and start of the
new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure sliding east of the area will keep mainly VFR flight
conditions intact through midday/early afternoon. Exception will be
the first couple of hours this morning east of Lake Ontario as a
weak band of localized lake effect activity off the east end of Lake
Ontario with limited inland extent will continue to weaken and move
north across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Expect a brief period
of marginal MVFR/low VFR CIGS will be possible in and around KART
from around through 13Z or so, however any snow shower activity
should be very light.

Flight conditions will then rapidly deteriorate from early/mid
afternoon through tonight. A warm front extending south from a weak
Clipper system will approach, then move across the area today.
Expect MVFR CIGS into western NY by mid afternoon, spreading east to
the eastern Lake Ontario region by around early evening. A brief
period of light snow will also be possible along and ahead of the
boundary. This may bring a brief period (1-3 hours) of MVFR/IFR VSBY
with timing mirroring the aforementioned onset of MVFR CIGS. A
period of localized lake effect snow is then expected to develop in
the wake of the warm frontal passage with intermittent MVFR/IFR
VSBYs northeast of Lake Erie possibly impacting KBUF and/or KIAG
Tuesday evening into the early overnight. A more widespread snow
will move in second half of tonight with widespread MVFR/IFR
conditions. Late tonight rain will start to mix in across the
lower terrain.

Southerly to southwesterly flow will ramp up this afternoon through
tonight as well, with gusts mainly in the 20-25 knot range, however
a few gusts to 30 knots is not out of the question.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers. Breezy, with gusts
20-30kts in many areas. Gusts to 35kts possible at KBUF/KIAG.

Thursday...VFR, with MVFR/IFR in scattered to numerous snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...MVFR/IFR east of the lakes with snow showers
likely. MVFR/VFR outside the main lake effect areas.

&&

.MARINE...
The offshore flow will increase and begin to turn southwesterly this
morning as high pressure exits to the east and a weak system moves
through the eastern Great Lakes, which will then be followed by a
more potent area of low pressure on Wednesday.

A deepening area of low pressure will pass by just north of Lake
Erie, though very close to Lake Ontario such that the strongest wind
fields with this second storm system will maintain gales to just
Lake Erie. Have upgraded the gale watch to a warning with this
product issuance.

Behind this second low, a persistent west to northwesterly flow
below gale force will ensue Wednesday night and through much of the
remainder of the week with small craft conditions on both Lakes
right through the week...if not through the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning
     for Nyz006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     Nyz012-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
         Thursday for Lez040.
 Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for Lez040- 041.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for Lez040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Friday for Loz044. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening
to 6 PM EST Saturday for Loz044>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
133 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

NYZ001-002-010-011-100645-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
133 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A band of lake effect snow will likely produce a few inches of
accumulation northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier late
this afternoon and through the evening. Roads will become snow
covered.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A general snow will then bring some additional minor snow accumulations
late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will warm
above freezing and allow rain to mix in during the day Wednesday,
before temperatures fall again with additional minor snow
accumulations Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019>021-085-100645-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
133 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Additional lake effect snow is expected late Wednesday night through
Thursday night, with additional moderate snow accumulations possible,
especially across higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-100645-
Livingston-Ontario-
133 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-100645-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
133 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario Thursday
through Thursday night, with moderate accumulations possible in the
most persistent bands.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-100645-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
133 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-100645-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
133 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-100645-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
133 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-100645-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
133 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf