Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

351 
WWUS41 KBUF 271749
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1249 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

NYZ006>008-280415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.250128T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1249 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 
6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations 4 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph will result in significant 
  blowing snow and greatly reduced visibility at times.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and will make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel will be 
  difficult. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce 
  visibility. Strong winds will cause tree damage and scattered 
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-280415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.250128T0000Z-250128T1400Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
1249 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 65 mph will result in significant blowing 
  snow and greatly reduced visibility at times.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow 
  will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Tuesday morning commute. Very strong winds could 
  cause tree damage and scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and greatly 
reduced visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-013-021-280415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.250128T0000Z-250128T1400Z/
Monroe-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Geneseo, and Wellsville
1249 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will result in significant blowing 
  snow with greatly reduced visibility at times.

* WHERE...Monroe, Livingston, and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow 
  will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Tuesday morning commute. Strong winds will cause 
  tree damage and scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and greatly 
reduced visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-280415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.250128T0000Z-250128T1400Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
1249 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will result in significant blowing 
  snow with greatly reduced visibility at times.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. Areas of blowing snow will 
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the Tuesday morning commute. Strong winds will cause tree 
  damage and scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JJR

639 
WWUS41 KBUF 280053
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
753 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

NYZ006>008-281100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
753 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations 4 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will result in significant 
  blowing snow and greatly reduced visibility at times.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and will make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening overnight. Areas of 
  blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. Strong winds 
  will cause tree damage and scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-281100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250128T1400Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
753 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 55 mph will result in significant blowing 
  snow and greatly reduced visibility at times.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow 
  will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Tuesday morning commute. Very strong winds could 
  cause tree damage and scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and greatly 
reduced visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-013-021-281100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250128T1400Z/
Monroe-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Geneseo, and Wellsville
753 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will result in significant blowing 
  snow with greatly reduced visibility at times.

* WHERE...Monroe, Livingston, and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow 
  will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Tuesday morning commute. Strong winds will cause 
  tree damage and scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and greatly 
reduced visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-281100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250128T1400Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
753 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will result in significant blowing 
  snow with greatly reduced visibility at times.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. Areas of blowing snow will 
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the Tuesday morning commute. Strong winds will cause tree 
  damage and scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel

516 
WWUS41 KBUF 281000
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
500 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

NYZ006>008-281800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.250129T0000Z-250129T2300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
500 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...While the heavy snow from last night has moved out of the 
  area, another round of significant snowfall will be possible 
  tonight and Wednesday. Total snow accumulations over 7 inches 
  possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From this evening through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel may 
become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-281800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250128T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.250128T2300Z-250129T2300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
500 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM 
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total twenty four hour snow accumulations 4 
  to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel may become difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010-011-013-021-281100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250128T1400Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Buffalo, Batavia, Geneseo, and Wellsville
500 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

While an additional inch or less of snow will be possible early this 
morning, mainly across the western Southern Tier, significant snow 
accumulations are no longer expected. The strong winds of the past 
day or so have also diminished, so the threat for substantial 
blowing snow has ended.

$$

RSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
102 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake snows will continue east of Lake Ontario overnight, with
generally dry conditions elsewhere. Strengthening low pressure
near James Bay will cause very windy conditions Monday and
Monday night, with this system pushing an arctic front through
the region Monday night. This will usher in colder air followed
by another round of lake effect snow Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...Damaging Winds Likely Across Parts of the Region Monday and
MOnday Night...

As we move into Monday and Monday night...our attention will
then turn back to the synoptic scale as a powerful (sub-970 mb)
storm system tracks from James Bay across northern Quebec... which
as pointed out earlier today will be some 4 STD below normal values
for late January...which places its return interval outside of
climatology (i.e., on a once in a lifetime time scale). While the
center of this impressive system will remain WELL to our north...the
tight pressure gradient surrounding it and its approaching arctic
frontal boundary will support a period of strong winds across
portions of our region Monday into Monday night...particularly as a
60-70 knot low level jet overspreads our region Monday afternoon
into early Monday evening. Given only weak temperature advection...
it's reasonable to expect that a large percentage of these winds
will be mixed to the sfc...particularly across far western New York
from the Lake Erie shoreline northeastward across the Niagara
Frontier over to Monroe county...and also across Jefferson county
east of Lake Ontario. The critical time will come later Monday
afternoon during the onset of the stronger winds aloft...when the
last few hours of sunshine will help to diurnally mix the stronger
winds aloft down to the surface. While this scenario is anything but
typical for our high wind events...the consistency of the guidance
from the past three days (including model to model and ensemble to
ensemble correlation) simply cannot be ignored.

Many of these areas should see gusts to 60 mph...with the highest
gusts (possibly greater than 60 mph) most likely across Niagara...
Orleans...Genesee...and western Monroe counties. While the 220-230
degree orientation of the flow through the first part of the event
may keep the strongest gusts north of Southern Erie/Wyoming counties
and points southward through that time...winds aloft may still be
strong enough to support some 50kt or so gusts as the low level flow
turns a little more to the west-southwest Monday evening...
particularly along the Lake Erie shoreline of Chautauqua and
Southern Erie counties. For this reason...have elected to not split
hairs and have simply upgraded all of the High Wind Watch areas to
Warnings.

Surrounding the High Wind Warning areas...it's also likely that some
of our other zones (such as those encompassing the higher terrain
south of Lake Ontario...and areas along the southeastern Lake
Ontario shore) will experience gusts of 45 to 55 mph...so wind
advisories have been hoisted for much of the remainder of western
New York.

Aside from the winds...Monday itself will be dry with a good deal of
sunshine across the area...particularly south of Lake Ontario. Given
good mixing...expect highs to range from around 30 across the higher
terrain to the mid 30s across the lower elevations...with some of
our warm spots in the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes possibly reaching
the upper 30s.

As we head into Monday night...the dry conditions will give way to a
period of snow showers from north to south as the powerful low over
Quebec sweeps its trailing arctic cold front southward across our
region...with a few snow squalls also possible right along the
boundary itself. The snow showers will also become at least somewhat
lake-enhanced northeast and east of the lakes for a time...
particularly downwind of Lake Ontario where an open lake and more
favorable environment appears supportive of another round of 3-7"
accums. East of Lake Erie amounts look to be more on the order of
1-3"...with an inch or less likely across the balance of the area.

While the strongest winds aloft will be in place a few hours prior
to the arrival of the front and the main swath of snow showers/round
of lake enhancement (thereby resulting in the strongest surface
winds preceding the snow...and then winds steadily dropping off
thereafter) there may still be a period of winds strong enough to
produce a short period of blowing snow/poor visibility concerns for
a number of areas. The greatest potential for this will be east of
Lake Ontario...where the combination of the winds and expected
snowfall appears sufficient to justify the issuance of an impact-
based Winter Storm Watch for Monday night. Even though the expected
snowfall totals there are a bit under warning criteria...the
combined effects of the wind and snow may produce some dangerous
near-whiteout to whiteout conditions initially...hence the issuance
of the Watch.

Otherwise...Monday night will feature relatively mild temps in the
upper 20s/lower 30s prior to the passage of the arctic front...with
sharply falling temps in its wake then sending readings down into
the teens (with some single digits east of Lake Ontario) by Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Fast-moving Arctic front will have settled south into Pennsylvania
as we open the period Tuesday morning. Lake enhanced/upslope snow
showers south and southeast of the lakes will quickly taper off
through the morning hours as the much drier Arctic airmass builds
south across the region, with no more than a half inch or less of
additional snowfall expected. Temps will range from the single
digits North Country to the teens elsewhere to start the day, and
when combined with cold northwesterly winds still gusting 25-35 mph,
expect below zero wind chills North Country and within a few degrees
of zero elsewhere. Steady cold advection through mid afternoon or so
will hold temps back from rising too much with highs topping out in
the teens North Country and low to mid 20s elsewhere. Good news is
winds will subside quite a bit during the afternoon, bad news is
that our brief break in the snow will be very short-lived as a
Clipper system approaches from the upper Great Lakes later in the
day. This will cause a fairly rapid shift in wind direction as
southwesterly flow takes hold ahead of the Clipper. This will also
force the front over Pennsylvania to start to make a return back
northward as a warm front. Strong warm advection and increasing
moisture ahead of the boundary will bring the chance for a few light
snow showers back into western NY by late in the day.

Heading into Tuesday night, there is still some question with regard
to the exact track of the Clipper low. Model consensus is still
split on whether the center of low passes right across western and
northcentral NY or just north of our area. This will impact how much
snow and more importantly where the snow falls (areal coverage). If
the low tracks right across the forecast area, a more general
widespread snow would fall. However, a track to our north would
place the majority of the snowfall across upslope areas with some
enhancement downwind of the lakes, as within this scenario 850mb
delta Ts would barely even support lake enhancement as much warmer
air would be drawn northward to the south of the low track. With
this in mind, have hedged toward a middle of the road scenario for
Tuesday night with a general widespread 1-3" snowfall, and 3-5"
possible for the terrain immediately east of Lake Erie owed the
upslope boost. The track of the low will also have impacts to wind
speed and direction, but will definitely be stronger winds for areas
south of the low track. With that said, expect gusts up to 20-30 mph
overnight. Strengthening WAA regime overnight will bring a non-
diurnal temp trend as temps ranging from the single digits North
Country to near 20 far western NY, quickly rise into the upper 20s
and low 30s from the Finger Lakes westward by Wednesday morning,
with teens and low 20s for the North Country.

As the low tracks east across or just north of the region, then to
our east by late Wednesday, widespread snows will transition to more
upslope dominant snow showers, as well as lake enhanced snows as
colder air is drawn in on the back side of the low. Higher snowfall
amounts will be confined to the higher terrain east of the lakes
where low-end advisory amounts will be possible, with generally up
to two inches possible across the lower terrain. Of note, if the low
does track north of the area, there is the chance boundary layer
temps warm enough for some rain to mix in across the lowest terrain
south of Lake Ontario during the midday/afternoon before colder air
would wrap back in across the region behind the low. Winds remain
elevated Wednesday with gusts again in the 20-30 mph range.

Winds turn northwest and weaken through Wednesday night, but will
bring a fresh batch of cold Canadian air back in across the region
with temps falling quickly through the evening. Lows will bottom out
in the single digits North Country with teens elsewhere. Expect just
some weak northwesterly flow lake effect snow shower activity as
drier Arctic airmass builds across the lakes through the overnight,
with just an additional inch or two in lake favored/upslope
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active time period as a long wave trough, one that has largely
persist over our region for the past several weeks, begins to shift
eastward, to be replaced by a closed low within the southern branch
of the jet stream.

Thursday will start cold, with eyes upon a ribbon of energy in the
mid levels streaming southward behind the main longwave trough. This
subtle shortwave will bring a weak clipper system over our region,
with the passage of the shortwave and better lift focused upon Lake
Ontario and northern regions. Will place the highest percent chance
for snow to the north, while southern areas may remain dry or with
lighter amounts of snow.

The weak low and its quick progression should keep the synoptic snow
to the light side, though it will remain cold enough for lake snows
downwind of the eastern Great Lakes through early Friday morning at
which time a surface ridge will pass across the region, ending the
threat for snow.

After a brief break, a potentially impactful synoptic system will be
bearing down upon our region.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon displays a closed low over
southern California and this feature will slowly advance across the
southern Rockies and Plains before reaching our region for the
weekend. This feature, laden with both Pacific moisture and moisture
from the Gulf will bring PWATs to near three quarters of an inch,
which for this time of year would be within the top 90th
percentile.

The interaction of warmer air flow northward in the mid levels ahead
of this closed low, and the departing cold longwave trough will make
for precipitation type issues with this system. While there are
still model differences, especially with the handling of the speed
of the closed cut-off low ejecting from the Southern Rockies, an
easterly flow should maintain enough cold air for frozen
precipitation (snow/sleet/freezing rain) to the north...while the
warmer southerly flow will bring in a much milder airmass (rain).
Where this dividing line plays out will change from model run-to-
run...and will therefore just place precipitation type as rain or
snow in the forecast.

A look at the ensembles for temperature spread and there is a large
range of possibilities this period, especially on Saturday. The NBM
ensemble spread between the 25th and 75th percentile is almost 20
degrees for much of our region. This spread just highlights the
great uncertainty for this weekend, especially in the context of
precipitation type.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Outside of lake effect snow and clouds, expecting VFR flight
conditions overnight outside of some patchy MVFR clouds across the
Western Southern Tier. Lake snows will bring IFR or lower vsby to
KART into the early morning hours before the band weakens and shift
to the north into Canada towards daybreak.

After this, winds will pick up considerably Monday, with a LLJ of
greater than 50 knots producing gusty winds during the day. Wind
gusts of 40 to 50 knots can be expected at times late Monday
afternoon into Monday evening. There may also be a brief period of
LLWS earlier Monday before winds aloft mix to the surface. Outside
of the winds, VFR flight conditions.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Local LIFR/IFR in lake enhanced snow and blowing snow
east of both lakes, IFR/MVFR with snow showers likely elsewhere.
Windy.
Tuesday...IFR with snow showers likely south of Lake Ontario with a
chance of snow showers elsewhere. Diminishing winds.
Wednesday...IFR with snow showers likely. Breezy.
Thursday and Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk to strong west to southwest winds will remain in place through
overnight...with an occasional gale force wind gust possible on
Lake Ontario. This will support ongoing high end small craft
advisories.

A powerful storm system tracking from James Bay to northern Quebec
on Monday will then generate gale force winds of 40 to 45 knots
across the lakes. Cannot rule out a brief period of storm or
storm force gusts Monday evening. Gale warnings up for all the
lakes and rivers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A powerful storm system will track from James Bay to northern Quebec
on Monday...and in the process will generate strong southwesterly
winds across Lake Erie Monday into Monday night. While much of Lake
Erie is indeed ice covered...past experience has shown this to be of
little to no impediment to producing a seiche. This should also
be true this time around...especially when given the large
patch of open water currently visible on satellite imagery east
of Long Point and the high end gales which are anticipated.

Current modeled lake level guidance is not reliable as it is placing
too much emphasis on the ice cover...and is therefore already not
accounting for ongoing smaller changes in lake levels that have been
observed so far today. Using past experience as a guide would
suggest that winds of the magnitude we're expecting for Monday/
Monday night should be enough to lead to at least a chance of lower
end warning-level lakeshore flooding...and as such have issued a
Lakeshore Flood Watch for Erie and Chautauqua counties. It should
also be noted that as water levels rise...it's also possible that
some of the lake ice could get shoved onshore and lead to property
damage right along the lakeshore.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ004-008-013-014-020-021.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     NYZ006>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Watch from 7 AM EST this morning through late
     tonight for NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ020-
         040-041.
         Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Tuesday
         for LEZ020-040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ030-042>045.
         Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Tuesday
         for LOZ030-042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/JJR/RSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel/JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

NYZ001>003-011-280230-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-280230-
Northern Erie-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-280230-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

A period of lake enhanced snow is possible Monday night through
Tuesday east of Lake Erie, with light to moderate accumulations
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-280230-
Wyoming-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

A period of lake enhanced snow is possible Monday night through
Tuesday east of Lake Erie, with light to moderate accumulations
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-280230-
Cattaraugus-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A period of lake enhanced snow is possible Monday night through
Tuesday east of Lake Erie, with light to moderate accumulations
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-013-014-021-280230-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Winds may gust as high as 45 to 50 mph very late Monday and Monday
night, and could lead to isolated downed tree limbs and power
outages.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-008-280230-
Oswego-Lewis-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-280230-
Jefferson-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-280230-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-280230-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-280230-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
929 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel