Small Craft Advisory 35, NWS Buffalo, NY

496 
WHUS71 KBUF 281039
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

LOZ043-282100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-250328T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.250328T1900Z-250329T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
639 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-281145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-250328T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
639 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have diminished...therefore the advisory has been
cancelled.

$$

LOZ042-282100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.250328T1900Z-250329T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
639 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

075 
WHUS71 KBUF 281805
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

LEZ040-041-290215-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.250329T0600Z-250330T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
205 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-290215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.250328T1900Z-250329T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
205 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

083 
WHUS71 KBUF 281939
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
339 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

LOZ042-043-290500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
339 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-290500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.250329T0600Z-250330T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
339 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

538 
WHUS71 KBUF 290208
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1008 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

LOZ042-043-291100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1008 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-291100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.250329T0600Z-250330T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1008 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

041 
WHUS71 KBUF 290813
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
413 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

LEZ040-041-291800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250329T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
413 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-291800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
413 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

747 
WHUS71 KBUF 290852
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
452 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

LOZ044-291700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
452 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-291700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
452 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-291700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250329T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
452 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

012 
WHUS71 KBUF 291437
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1037 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

LEZ040-041-291545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250329T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1037 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have diminished.

$$

LOZ042-043-292330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1037 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-292330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1037 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

154 
WHUS71 KBUF 292004
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
404 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

LOZ044-292115-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
404 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have diminished.

$$

LOZ042-043-300415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
404 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

695 
WHUS71 KBUF 300241
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1041 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

LOZ042-043-301200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1041 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

628 
WHUS71 KBUF 300842
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
442 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

LOZ043-300945-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
442 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have diminished, therefore the advisory has been
cancelled.

$$

LOZ042-301500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
442 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

549 
WHUS71 KBUF 301435
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

LOZ042-301545-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-250330T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1035 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Winds and waves have diminished.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
240 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Elongated low pressure will extend eastward across our area later
Friday through the weekend, bringing more widespread unsettled
weather that will feature periods of rain for most areas, with
mainly a mix of rain and freezing rain expected across the North
Country. With the frontal boundary draped across our area...we can
expect a large north to south gradient in temperatures both weekend
days...with this greatest on Saturday when daytime highs will range
from near freezing near the Saint Lawrence River to around 70 across
the western Southern Tier.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of this writing the weak cold frontal boundary and any associated
pcpn has cleared our area. In its wake we can expect partly cloudy
and quiet conditions overnight...with low temps settling into the
mid to upper 20s across the North Country and into the lower half of
the 30s elsewhere.

Narrow ridge of high pressure moves quickly east Friday, while a
large elongated area of low pressure moves from the northern Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley. A strengthening LLJ will help
push an attendant warm front extending well east of the low toward
western NY from the southwest. This will bring increasing chances
for showers through Friday afternoon with Likely to CAT PoPs by late
in the day/early evening. across areas from the Genesee Valley
westward. Highs will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s east of
Lake Ontario, with upper 40s to mid 50s south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A very unsettled and active pattern will develop over the weekend as
a WNW to ESE frontal zone develops over the Great Lakes and New
England, with the thermal gradient tightening with time. A series of
shortwaves will ripple down the frontal zone, with each one bringing
a period of enhanced ascent and precipitation. Strong and persistent
high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will also introduce low level
cold air, bringing the potential for significant freezing rain to
northern NY, and possibly a more brief window of freezing rain south
of Lake Ontario.

Friday night through Saturday, a persistent differential temperature
advection pattern will continue to tighten the thermal gradient
across the boundary and strengthen frontogensis, with a series of
weak frontal waves running down the boundary and enhancing ascent.
The strong frontogenetic forcing will support periods of rain,
especially from near the south shore of Lake Ontario northward.
Farther south on the warm side of the boundary, expect much lower
coverage of rain across the western Southern Tier. Across the North
Country, persistent low level northeast flow will lock into the
Saint Lawrence Valley. The initial wave of precipitation may contain
some snow Friday evening, after that, warming aloft will result in
periods of freezing rain Friday night through Saturday along the
Saint Lawrence River, and possibly as far south as about the NYS
Route 3 corridor from Watertown to Harrisville.

Saturday night through Sunday, the surface high to the north will
continue to strengthen, and likely force the low level frontal zone
to sag southward to near the NYS Thruway. This will bring the steady
precip a little farther south. Temperatures will drop across the
northern half of the area, and may drop enough to bring a period of
freezing rain to areas just south of Lake Ontario. The greatest
chance of this would be across Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe
counties. Meanwhile across the North Country, the risk of freezing
rain will continue, especially closer to the Saint Lawrence River.

Sunday night, surface low pressure will strengthen as it moves into
the central Great Lakes. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this low
will finally push the omnipresent frontal zone northward, with
temperatures rising significantly south of Lake Ontario and ending
the risk of freezing rain. The warm air will eventually make it into
the North Country as well overnight, changing the freezing rain to
rain.

This setup will present the risk for significant freezing rain
accumulation from southern Ontario into northern NY. The largest
risk area will be found north of our CWA, but there is a chance of
significant, impactful ice accumulation across northern Jefferson
County. If freezing rain materializes south of Lake Ontario, expect
amounts to be much lower, given the more brief time window and more
marginal temperature profiles.

There will be a stark contrast in temperatures this weekend, with
high bust potential at any given location depending on the exact
location of the frontal zone. Expect 30s to the north of the surface
front (and even some upper 20s near the Saint Lawrence River), and
60s to the south (and even 70s near the PA state line). The frontal
zone may drift north and south several times over the weekend, which
may result in several significant temperature swings for cities
along the NYS Thruway corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deepening surface low pressure sliding northeast across the Great
Lakes and into southern Quebec will drag its corresponding surface
cold front across the region Monday. Initially temperatures ahead of
the frontal passage Monday will be well above freezing with highs
peaking early in the day in the 50s. This being said, expect a swath
of rain to pass from west to east Monday. Behind the front,
temperatures will then drop to below freezing, supporting lingering
showers to change over to some snow.

Surface high pressure will then slide across the region Monday night
and Tuesday advecting in some dry air into the region. While
temperatures will tumble into the negative low teens Celsius at
850mb Monday night, the dry air overhead will limit any lake effect
response east/southeast of the lakes. As the center of high pressure
slides across the region Tuesday, expect dry weather to persist.

The next longwave trough will lift towards the Great Lakes Wednesday
through Thursday, introducing the next surface system to the area.
While the low confidence of the timing and track of the low, expect
temperatures to warm back up into the 50s/low 60s Wednesday and
Thursday with increasing chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A narrow wedge of high pressure will build east across the area
overnight...bringing fair dry weather and VFR conditions.

On Friday the surface ridge will slide off to our east...while broad
low pressure over the Plains States extends across the Upper
Mississippi Valley...with its attendant warm front snaking its way
across the southern Great Lakes and into our area Friday afternoon.
This will bring thickening/lowering clouds from southwest to
northeast...with rain developing in a similar manner across areas
south of Lake Ontario during the later afternoon and early evening
hours. This will result in flight conditions lowering into the lower
VFR range across the North Country...and to MVFR/spotty IFR south of
Lake Ontario.

Friday night the warm front will slowly lift northward across
western New York...with the boundary nearing (but not quite
reaching) Lake Ontario by the start of Saturday morning. Out ahead
and along the front widespread light to moderate rain and a mix of
IFR/MVFR conditions is anticipated...with the North Country seeing
an initial mix of snow and sleet early Friday evening quickly change
over to freezing rain and rain. Behind the advancing boundary...the
rain will taper off from south to north...with flight conditions
improving back to lower-end VFR. This being said...an advancing low
level jet will also lead to the development of LLWS within the
burgeoning warm sector.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Some VFR lingering south of KIAG-KROC
during at least part of Saturday...otherwise MVFR/IFR with periods
of rain...and rain and freezing rain east of Lake Ontario.
Monday...MVFR with rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold frontal passage will bring another uptick in winds
overnight, with a brief (6-12 hour) period of Small Craft
Advisories for Lake Ontario. These headlines will be followed
by another ridge of high pressure and a return to quieter
conditions later tonight and Friday morning, before freshening
easterlies develop across Lake Ontario Friday afternoon out
ahead of an approaching warm front. These may eventually require
the issuance of another Small Craft Advisory for southwestern
portions of the Lake for later Friday afternoon and Friday
evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Sunday for NYZ007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JM/JJR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...Apffel/HSK/JM/JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
324 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

NYZ007-281930-
Jefferson-
324 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-008-281930-
Oswego-Lewis-
324 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An initial mix of rain and snow is expected to develop across the
area Friday evening...before changing to a mix of rain and freezing
rain for later Friday night through Saturday night, possibly lasting
through a portion of Sunday before finally changing over to all
rain. While the coverage and duration of any freezing rain remains
uncertain at this time...the potential exists for up to a quarter to
a third of an inch of ice accumulation...with the greatest likelihood
of this lying across areas closer to the Saint Lawrence Valley. Any
icing would lead to hazardous travel conditions and isolated power
outages.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-281930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
324 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-281930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
324 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-281930-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
324 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf