Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Buffalo, NY

259 
WHUS71 KBUF 031654
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1154 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

LOZ042-040500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.250204T0000Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1154 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-040500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.250204T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1154 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-040500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.250204T0300Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1154 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

533 
WHUS71 KBUF 032035
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
335 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

LOZ042-040445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.250204T0000Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
335 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-040445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.250204T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
335 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-040445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.250204T0300Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
335 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

092 
WHUS71 KBUF 040220
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

LOZ042-041030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-041030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-041030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.250204T0300Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

671 
WHUS71 KBUF 040839
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
339 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

LOZ042-041645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
339 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-041645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
339 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-041645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
339 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves up to 4 feet
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

407 
WHUS71 KBUF 041626
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1126 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

LOZ042-050000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1126 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-050030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1126 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-050000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1126 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds

269 
WHUS71 KBUF 042340
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
640 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

LOZ042-050300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
640 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-050300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
640 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-050300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
640 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

141 
WHUS71 KBUF 050242
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
942 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

LOZ042-050345-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
942 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

Winds and waves have subsided below advisory levels. However, choppy
conditions will be possible for the next few hours. 

$$

LOZ043-044-050345-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
942 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

Winds and waves have subsided below advisory levels. However, choppy
conditions will be possible for the next few hours.

$$

LOZ045-050345-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-250205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
942 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

Winds and waves have subsided below advisory levels. However, choppy
conditions will be possible for the next few hours.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1246 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow east of Lake Ontario this evening will end as a mix of light
snow and freezing drizzle overnight, with a mix of light snow and
freezing drizzle across Western NY gradually tapering off overnight.
The first half of Monday will be dry, although there will still be
low clouds and patchy fog. A cold front will then move south across
the region Monday afternoon through Monday night, with a period of
rain changing to snow from north to south, with minor accumulations.
Another brief period of drier weather will return later Tuesday
through Wednesday before another low pressure system moves through
the area, Wednesday night and Thursday, likely bringing a wintry mix
of precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A wing of warm advection well downstream of low pressure moving
through northwest Ontario province is moving into eastern NY and New
England. The accumulating snow across the eastern Lake Ontario
region will continue to taper off in the next few hours, and be
replaced with areas of light snow and freezing drizzle as deeper
moisture and ascent depart, and the remaining low level cloud deck
warms to the point where ice nuclei are less common in the cloud
bearing layer. Meanwhile across Western NY, the widespread light
snow and freezing drizzle from earlier this evening is continuing to
show signs of shrinking coverage, but areas of light freezing
drizzle and flurries will continue for the next couple of hours.

Expect 1-2" of snow for most of the eastern Lake Ontario region, and
up to 3-4" for the southern Tug Hill region which will benefit from
SSW upslope flow.

Most of the remaining drizzle and freezing drizzle will end by late
tonight, although plenty of low clouds and patchy fog will linger.

Much of the region will start dry Monday. A cold front, from a
surface low traveling across James Bay, will approach our region
through the day. Increasing temperatures through the day should warm
all regions sufficiently above freezing by precipitation onset.
Highs are expected to reach the mid 40s for lower elevations of WNY,
while east of Lake Ontario temperatures will hold in the mid to
upper 30s. This will be one area, close to the freezing mark, that
will need to by monitored for any freezing rain potential...but at
this point it's rather low. This cold front will bring back in rain
around noontime and through the afternoon hours. Rain amounts will
be higher northward, and towards the region of better lift with the
mid level shortwave trough...and average around two tenths of an
inch. Lower rain amounts southward...with the state line possible
remaining dry through the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A relatively low amplitude flow will continue across the CONUS
resulting in weak wave after weak wave moving from west to east
across the northern tier of the U.S. through mid week, before a
stronger wave impacts our area during the latter half of the week in
the long term period. This has allowed for frequent temperature
fluctuations that have, and will continue to result in some p-type
issues.

It will remain quite mild to start Monday evening by early Feb
standards, with either wet snow or a rain/wet snow mix across
the top of the Tug Hill and western Dacks, while rain showers
dominate over the remainder of the forecast area. Eventually
rain/mixed precipitation will changeover over to all snow from
north to south through the early overnight as the cold front is
finally sent southward through the area in the wake of the wave
of low pressure moving east into western New England. Deeper
moisture will quickly get stripped away as colder air wraps in,
holding accumulations down as steadier snow shower activity
quickly tapers off following the changeover to all snow. Thus,
may see 1-2 inches across the top of the Tug Hill and across the
western Dacks, otherwise nominal accumulations expected
elsewhere. After the fairly mild first half of Monday night,
temperatures will drop off rather quickly during the second half
of Monday night as colder air surges south behind the cold
fropa. Lows will range from the teens and very low 20s across
the North Country, to the mid 20s elsewhere.

Temperatures aloft will grow cold enough by late Monday night into
Tuesday to elicit a lake response, however with deeper moisture
having exited east, expecting just some light lake effect snow
showers southeast of the lakes through Tuesday under northwesterly
boundary layer flow. Drier air and subsidence associated with high
pressure building in from the west will shut down any lingering
localized light lake effect activity southeast of Lake Ontario
through Tuesday afternoon, with a mainly dry afternoon expected
elsewhere. A much colder day on tap with steady CAA not allowing
temperatures to recover much from the morning lows.

High pressure builds over the area Tuesday night bringing a dry, but
seasonably chilly night as lows fall back into the single digits
across the North Country (possibly sub-zero Lewis County), with
teens elsewhere.

Moisture will be on the increase from the southwest on Wednesday
ahead of a developing system over the mid-Mississippi Valley,
however high pressure should keep the bulk of the area dry through
the day as it slowly slides southeast into southern New England by
days' end. Daytime highs will be in the upper teens to low 20s
across the North Country, mid to upper 20s for the bulk of the area,
and some very lows 30s possible close to the Lake Erie shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The jet stream will lift north of New England Wednesday night while
re-emerging at the base of a partially phased mid-level trough
moving through the Great Lakes from the west. GOMEX based moisture
circulating northward on the backside of high pressure over the
Southeast will be drawn under an area of divergent flow aloft
between the two branches of the jet, resulting in strong sfc
cyclogenesis across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys. Arctic high
pressure will retreat to the northwestern Atlantic as the wave of
sfc low pressure tracks northeastward through the forecast area
Thursday, before moving off to New England or southern Quebec by
Thursday evening.

While a wet and messy conditions are nigh on guaranteed as this
system moves through, it also has the potential to bring a few more
impactful hazards to the forecast area Wednesday night through
Thursday, though it should be stated upfront that confidence remains
low in the likelihood of any one of them being realized. There still
remains a large amount of spread among the long range guidance
packages (particularly in regards to the system's track) between
both the different models themselves and their own run-to-run
continuities. Where the eastern Great Lakes end up positioned
relative to this low's center will have large implications on ptype,
winds, and QPF. The GFS has been more consistently favoring a
southern track, moving the primary low across the Ohio Valley to
Southern New England, with the ECMWF leaning much further north with
the main low cutting to our northwest across southern Ontario. The
12z CMCNH is almost right down the middle, tracking the low directly
over WNY and the North Country.

For ptype...While some isentropic lift could produce some light snow
at the onset, ensemble probabilities remain high for a period of
wintry mix including some FZRA as the system's pronounced warm nose
moves through Wednesday night into Thursday. Temps at the sfc and
aloft should then support plain rain as the dominant ptype late
Thursday morning through early Thursday afternoon. Colder air
wrapping in behind the passing system could allow for a brief
changeover to snow before tapering off in coverage.

For winds...The more northwestern tracks shown by some guidance
packages (notably the ECMWF) would be more climatologically
favorable
for a period of brisk to strong winds later Thursday into Thursday
night. Many guidance solutions have a strong LLJ associated with
this system, though the northwestern track places these strong winds
aloft within the CAA regime, which could allow for deeper mixing to
the sfc.

For QPF...NBM output continues to flip-flop in regards to
temperatures and overall spread remains high, though still
indicating the potential for 40s on Thursday, with about a 40-50%
chance of >=0.75" 24hr QPF across the western Southern Tier and on
the Tug through Thursday night. This could lead to some ice
jam/elevated flow issues on some area creeks and streams.

The CAA will then deepen across the lakes in the system's wake later
Thursday night into Friday, with chances for lake enhanced snow
downwind of the lakes through Friday night. The next trough
approaching from the west will bring a increased chances for snow
areawide Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An area of warm advection snow will exit the eastern Lake Ontario
region in the next few hours, with widespread IFR VSBY improving to
MVFR. Behind the main area of snow, areas of light snow mixed with
drizzle and freezing drizzle has already moved into Western NY. This
change to freezing drizzle will likely spread east across the
remainder of the area through the mid to late evening.

Most of the drizzle and freezing drizzle will end by late tonight,
although patchy fog and local IFR VSBY may continue. Otherwise, CIGS
will deteriorate to IFR and low end MVFR tonight, then remain there
through Monday. A cold front will approach from the north later
Monday afternoon, with rain spreading into the area from north to
south.

Finally, a strong low level jet will cross the lower Great Lakes
Monday afternoon, bringing a period of low level wind shear ahead of
the cold front.

Outlook...

Monday night...MVFR/IFR. Rain tapering off as light snow.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow.

Wednesday night and Thursday...MVFR/IFR in mixed precipitation
becoming likely.

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for snow southeast of the Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind this shortwave winds will veer to southwesterly late tonight
and then northwesterly tomorrow evening behind a cold front. This
will direct higher waves towards the southeast end of Lake
Ontario...possibly within small craft advisory range.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/Thomas
NEAR TERM...EAJ/Hitchcock/Thomas
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...EAJ/Hitchcock
MARINE...EAJ/Hitchcock/Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
614 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

NYZ004>008-012>014-019>021-085-032315-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
614 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A storm system Wednesday night and into early Thursday may start as
light snow before mixing with and changing to rain. There is a
chance for a period of freezing rain within the changeover before
warmer above freezing surface temperatures become established.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010-011-032315-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
614 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A storm system Wednesday night and into early Thursday may start as
light snow before mixing with and changing to rain. There is a
chance for a period of freezing rain within the changeover before
warmer above freezing surface temperatures become established.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-032315-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
614 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-032315-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
614 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock