Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2025

Lake Effect Snow Warning 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 14, 2025Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Dec 14, 2025, 12:58 PM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York. It took effect at Dec 15, 2025, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 28 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Dec 14, 2025, 12:58 PM EST (17:58 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 15, 2025, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 16, 2025, 11:00 AM EST
In force
28 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.81 Ssw Watertown, NY
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.21 Ne Lowville, NY
Dec 16, 8:30 AM ESTSNOW 8.54 Nw Copenhagen, NY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2025-12-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2025-12-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -181 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
970 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
119 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-181 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
74 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

759 
WWUS41 KBUF 141758
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1258 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

NYZ006-150915-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-251214T2100Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0018.251215T1200Z-251216T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0012.251215T1200Z-251216T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
1258 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST 
TUESDAY EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow is expected to redevelop Monday 
  across Oswego County. Total snow accumulations 8 to 16 inches in 
  the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego County. Greatest snow accumulations across the Tug 
  Hill.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow covered 
  roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning 
  and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-150915-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251214T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0018.251215T1200Z-251216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0013.251215T1200Z-251216T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1258 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST 
TUESDAY EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow is expected to redevelop Monday for 
  Jefferson and Lewis Counties. Total snow accumulations 8 to 16 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. Greatest snow accumulation 
  across southern Jefferson and western Lewis Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow covered 
  roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning 
  and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ005-150900-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251215T0900Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Fair Haven
1258 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 
  4 inches.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga County.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be extremely difficult and hazardous with 
  lingering deep snow cover on roads and poor visibilities. Travel 
  conditions will improve this afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-085-150915-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251215T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and
Springville
1258 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 3 to 
  6 inches.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties. The 
  greatest accumulations will focus across the Chautauqua Ridge and 
  Boston Hills.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally 
heavy snow with greatly reduced visibilities to dry conditions just 
a few miles away. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, 
visibility, and road conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-150915-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.251215T1500Z-251216T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
1258 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST 
TUESDAY NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected Northern Niagara Frontier. Total 
  snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning 
  commutes with snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-150900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-251215T0900Z/
Wayne-
Including the cities of Newark
1258 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 3 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows, mainly through the 
  afternoon hours.

* WHERE...Wayne County. Greatest accumulations expected over the far 
  northeast portion of the county.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

DRT
7 follow-up statements
012 
WWUS41 KBUF 150543
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1243 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

NYZ085-151745-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251215T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.251215T1500Z-251216T1200Z/
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park and Springville
1243 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM 
EST TUESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Southern Erie County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-150645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251215T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
1243 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Lake effect snow has weakened.

$$

NYZ005-151745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251215T1800Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Fair Haven
1243 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 3 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga County. The greatest accumulations will be 
  over the far northern portion of the county north of Cato.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.251215T1200Z-251216T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
1243 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING 
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 6 
  to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the far 
  northern portion of the county, with 3 to 6 inches elsewhere.

* WHERE...Oswego County. Greatest additional accumulations will be 
  over the far northern portion of the county.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.251215T1200Z-251216T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1243 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING 
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 8 
  to 16 inches in the most persistent lake snows over southern 
  Jefferson County and the northwest portion of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. The greatest accumulations 
  will be across southern Jefferson County and the northwest portion 
  of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday. Lake effect 
  snow expected to redevelop around midday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-151745-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.251215T1500Z-251216T1200Z/
Wyoming-
Including the cities of Warsaw
1243 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM 
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming County. The greatest accumulations will be on the 
  ridges across the western portion of the county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-151745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-251215T1800Z/
Wayne-
Including the cities of Newark
1243 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 4 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne County. Greatest additional accumulations expected 
  over the northeast corner of the county.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.251215T1500Z-251216T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
1243 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING 
TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties. The 
  greatest accumulations will be across the Buffalo Metro area, 
  southern Niagara, southwest Orleans, and western Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
414 
WWUS41 KBUF 150811
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
311 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

NYZ005-151800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251215T1800Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Fair Haven
311 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 3 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga County. The greatest accumulations will be 
  over the far northern portion of the county north of Cato.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-151900-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.251215T1200Z-251216T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
311 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING 
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 6 
  to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the far 
  northern portion of the county, with 3 to 6 inches elsewhere.

* WHERE...Oswego County. Greatest additional accumulations will be 
  over the far northern portion of the county.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday. Lake effect 
  snow expected to redevelop around midday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-151900-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.251215T1200Z-251216T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
311 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING 
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 8 
  to 16 inches in the most persistent lake snows over southern 
  Jefferson County and the northwest portion of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. The greatest accumulations 
  will be across southern Jefferson County and the northwest portion 
  of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday. Lake effect 
  snow expected to redevelop around midday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover roads 
  and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday evening commute. Significant impacts are possible on 
  Interstate 81 this evening between Mannsville and Watertown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-151800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-251215T1800Z/
Wayne-
Including the cities of Newark
311 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 4 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne County. Greatest additional accumulations expected 
  over the northeast corner of the county.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-151900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.251215T1500Z-251216T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
311 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING 
TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties. The 
  greatest accumulations will be across the Buffalo Metro area, 
  southern Niagara, southwest Orleans, and western Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-085-151900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.251215T1500Z-251216T1200Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
311 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING 
TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie Counties. The greatest 
  accumulations will be from southern Erie County to the ridges of 
  western Wyoming County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
442 
WWUS41 KBUF 151748
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1248 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

NYZ005-151900-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251215T1800Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Fair Haven
1248 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Lake Effect Snow has lifted northward from the County.

$$

NYZ004-151900-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-251215T1800Z/
Wayne-
Including the cities of Newark
1248 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Lake Effect Snow has lifted northward from the County.

$$

NYZ006-160600-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251216T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
1248 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 8 
  to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the far 
  northern portion of the county, with 3 to 6 inches elsewhere.

* WHERE...Oswego County. Greatest additional accumulations will be 
  over the far northern portion of the county.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-160600-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-251216T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1248 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 8 
  to 16 inches in the most persistent lake snows over southern 
  Jefferson County and the northwest portion of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. The greatest accumulations 
  will be across southern Jefferson County and the northwest portion 
  of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover roads 
  and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday evening commute. Significant impacts are possible on 
  Interstate 81 this evening between Mannsville and Watertown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-160600-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-251216T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, and
Batavia
1248 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties. The 
  greatest accumulations will be across the Buffalo Metro area, 
  southern Niagara, southwest Orleans, and western Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-085-160600-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-251216T1200Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
1248 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie Counties. The greatest 
  accumulations will be from southern Erie County to the ridges of 
  western Wyoming County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Thomas
216 
WWUS41 KBUF 160220
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
920 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

NYZ001-002-160330-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-251216T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
920 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Only some lighter lake effect snow showers and minor accumulations 
of under an inch are expected, therefore the Winter Weather Advisory 
has been cancelled.

$$

NYZ006-161430-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251216T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
920 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 4 to 
  7 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the far northern 
  portion of the county, with little or nothing elsewhere.

* WHERE...Oswego County.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-161430-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-251216T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
920 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 5 to 
  10 inches in the most persistent lake snows over southern 
  Jefferson county and the northwest portion of the Tug Hill PLateau.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. The greatest accumulations 
  will be across southern Jefferson County and the northwest portion 
  of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on 
  roads and very poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-161200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-251216T1200Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
920 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 2 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee Counties. The greatest 
  accumulations will be across northern Erie and western Genesee 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-085-161200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-251216T1200Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
920 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 2 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie Counties. The greatest 
  accumulations will be from southern Erie County to the ridges of 
  western Wyoming County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JJR
557 
WWUS41 KBUF 160543
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1243 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

NYZ010>012-085-160645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-251216T1200Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park,
and Springville
1243 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Lake effect snow has diminished, with any additional accumulation 
less than an inch.

$$

NYZ006-161800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251216T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
1243 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 
  3 inches in the most persistent lake snows over the far northern 
  end of the county.

* WHERE...far northern Oswego County.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. Most of the additional snow 
  will fall through the early morning hours.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-161800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-251216T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1243 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 3 to 
  6 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. The greatest additional 
  accumulations will focus across southern Jefferson County and the 
  northwest portion of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. The majority of the 
  additional accumulations will be early this morning with 
  diminishing intensity after daybreak.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
716 
WWUS41 KBUF 160812
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
312 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

NYZ006-160915-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-251216T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
312 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The most persistent lake effect snow will remain north of Oswego 
County this morning, with any additional accumulation an inch or 
less.

$$

NYZ007-008-161800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-251216T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
312 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 4 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. The greatest additional 
  accumulations will be across southern Jefferson County and the 
  northwest portion of the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. Most of the additional 
  accumulations will be early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with 
  reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
818 
WWUS41 KBUF 161600
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1100 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

NYZ007-008-161700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0013.000000T0000Z-251216T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1100 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Lake effect snow has diminished and significant accumulations are no 
longer expected, therefore the Lake Effect Snow Warning has been 
cancelled.

$$

Thomas

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Dec 14, 5:24 AM EST, 7 hours 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 14, 5:24 AM EST, 7 hours 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
524 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie will
continue this morning, then break up into more widespread, but
weaker multiple bands of snow showers this afternoon through tonight
south of the lakes as winds turn northerly. A very cold airmass and
a breeze will produce wind chills near or a little below zero at
times through Monday morning. Another clipper system will then cross
the eastern Great Lakes Monday through early Tuesday, with another
period of lake enhanced snow east of the lakes with additional
accumulations, heaviest east of Lake Ontario. Lake effect snow will
end on Tuesday, and this will be followed by a notable warming trend
through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main focus through tonight.
Lake induced equilibrium levels will peak in the 12K-15K foot range
this morning just ahead of a secondary arctic front. Forecast BUFKIT
soundings continue to support ideal cloud microphysics, with a deep
dendritic growth zone topped by a deep layer of saturation with
respect to ice above. This will continue to bring large dendrite
conglomerates and high snow:water ratios in the bands of heavier
lake effect snow.

Off Lake Ontario...

An east-west oriented band will reach peak strength and organization
this morning across Oswego County, supported by a strong zone of
convergence driven by land breeze circulations along the lakeshore.
Peak snowfall rates may reach 2-3" per hour of fluffy snow this
morning as the band focuses on southwest Oswego and far northern
Cayuga counties. The heaviest snow will fall very close to the
lakeshore, with snowfall rates and amounts quickly falling off
inland. Expect an additional 10-16" in the most persistent bands
this morning across southwest Oswego County and far northern Cayuga
County.

Late morning through early afternoon, a secondary arctic front will
move south across the lake, capturing the east-west oriented band
and pushing it south and onshore along much of the south shore. This
will bring a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow moving south off
the lake from the Rochester area to western Oswego County and inland
into the northern Finger Lakes before the band breaks apart with
distance from the lake. Expect 1-3" of accumulation south of the
lake including Rochester, and up to 3-6" across portions of Wayne
County.

Late afternoon through tonight, NNW flow will support a more
widespread spray of multiple weak bands of snow showers south of the
lake, extending through the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. This
will bring another dusting to 2" of accumulation overnight.

Off Lake Erie...

Persistent, mainly light lake enhanced upslope snow will continue
this morning across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and
Boston Hills. The secondary arctic front will move south this
afternoon, with winds veering to the NNW. A Lake Huron band will
likely cross the area and bring some local enhancement to snowfall
rates and amounts for a few hours this afternoon, but it will remain
transient and end up in NW PA by early this evening. Expect
additional accumulations of 3-5" today across the higher terrain of
the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills.

Tonight, northwest flow will support occasional, mainly light snow
showers across the western Southern Tier and Boston Hills with
additional accumulations of a spotty inch or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Just as LES starts to wind down behind the exiting mid level trough
axis, yet another shortwave in the pipeline will propagate southeast
across the lower Great Lakes Monday and Monday night setting the
stage for one last round of localized moderate to heavy lake snows
downwind of the lakes, before surface ridging and WAA aloft will
finally shut down the LE machine for a bit by later Tuesday.

The details...

Off Lake Erie...Next wave approaches as we open the period. This
will force over lake flow to back to the west Monday morning and to
southwest by the afternoon, while deeper moisture associated with
the shortwave moves in aloft. Expect initial lake band to form
Monday morning east of the lake across Southern Erie, western
Wyoming, and northern Portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus
counties, before lifting north across the Niagara Frontier including
the Buffalo Metro area and intensifying. Band will peak in intensity
Monday afternoon as LE parameters maximize...fetch down the long
axis of the lake under southwest flow, deep moisture and plenty of
lift through the saturated DGZ layer. Shortwave crosses the area
Monday night with over lake flow veering west Monday evening, while
moisture aloft is gradually stripped away Monday night. This will
shove the band back south of the Buffalo Metro Monday evening, with
the band weakening considerably second half of Monday night as
equilibrium levels continue to fall within a developing WAA regime
aloft. Only minor accumulations expected outside of main lake effect
areas. As for accumulations...a few inches will be possible across
Southern Erie, western Wyoming, and northern Portions of Chautauqua
and Cattaraugus counties Monday morning. As the bad swings north
Monday afternoon, 2-4 inches will be possible across the Niagara
Frontier centered on areas south and east of Niagara Falls including
the Buffalo Metro area, likely impacting the evening commute. A
Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be needed here...but will let
oncoming shift have another look before issuing this being 3rd
period at this point. Another couple inches will be possible Monday
evening across Southern Erie, western Wyoming, and northern Portions
of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties as the band shifts back south
before dissipating later Monday night. A few snow showers will be
possible Tuesday morning across as whats's left of the band shifts
back north across the Buffalo Metro area in a very weakened state.
Otherwise, a general inch or two of synoptic snow associated with
the trough can be expected area wide.

Off Lake Ontario...Next wave approaches as we open the period. This
will force over lake flow to back to the west Monday morning and to
west-southwest/southwest by the afternoon, while deeper moisture
associated with the shortwave moves in aloft. Weakened lake band
over northern Wayne and northern Cayuga County will start to
intensify and lift north into Oswego County Monday morning. Similar
to the Lake Erie band, LE parameters will peak Monday afternoon and
evening for the same aforementioned reasons, however depth of cold
air will be even greater. With this in mind expect the band to
intensify Monday afternoon while shifting north across northern
Oswego, southern/central Jefferson (including Watertown Metro), and
much of Lewis counties...with the heaviest snows targeting the Tug
Hill. Band will remain in nearly the same position into  the first
half of Monday night before starting to weaken second half of Monday
night (about six hours later than Lake Erie) as deeper moisture is
stripped away and equilibrium levels continue to fall within a
developing WAA regime aloft. Only minor accumulations expected
outside of main lake effect areas. As for accumulations...several
inches will be possible across the western two-thirds of Oswego
County Monday morning before shifting further north. Band will peak
in intensity Monday afternoon and evening across northern Oswego,
southern/central Jefferson (including Watertown Metro), and much of
Lewis counties. 7-13 inches look possible during this 12-hr period
in the most persistent snows, with the highest amounts centered on
the Tug Hill. Several inches will be possible Monday
afternoon/evening across the Watertown Metro potentially impacting
the Monday evening commute. Band starts to weaken and shrink back
toward the lake second half of Monday night with a few more inches
possible across far southern Jefferson, northern Oswego, and far
western Lewis counties, before weakening further and shifting back
across Jefferson County Tuesday morning producing another inch or
so. With all this in mind, confidence is high enough at this time to
issue a Winter Storm Watch for Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties
from Monday morning through early Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, a
general inch or two of synoptic snow associated with the trough can
be expected area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The deep trough/ridge pattern will relax across the CONUS, becoming
more a more zonal and progressive pattern this period. At the
surface, large area of high pressure will slip east off the
southeast coast to open the period with southwesterly flow
developing across the region. Though strong WAA will be ongoing
aloft, it will not be realized at the surface Tuesday night with dry
and seasonable temperatures expected. Weak cold front crosses the
area Wednesday, but not before temperatures rise a bit above normal
for the first time in quite a while. This will also bring the chance
for few rain and higher elevation snow showers, mainly east of Lake
Ontario. Transient ridge crosses the area with another brief period
of mainly dry weather Wednesday night.

Deep southwesterly flow ensues across our region Thursday as a
sharp, but progressive mid/upper level trough digs south across the
upper Mississippi Valley. Strong WAA and deeper moisture streaming
in from the south ahead of this feature will bring the likelihood of
mainly rain showers by Thursday afternoon as temperatures rise into
the upper 30s and 40s. It will also become very windy as a 60-70
knot southerly LLJ moves across the area. Being that the jet is in
the WAA advection side of the system, expect only partial mixing
down of the winds aloft. That said, a very tight pressure gradient
setting up across the area owed to strong low pressure moving into
the upper Great Lakes will bring the potential for strong winds,
especially across downslope areas.

A round of rain and wind is then expected Thursday night as a strong
cold front plows across the area. Rain will rapidly change to snow
behind the front as a shot of much colder air moves in behind the
boundary. 40-50 knot LLJ lingers in the CAA as deepening low pressure
pulls northeast into southern Quebec, so expect gusty winds for
Thursday night and Friday as well, with temperatures feeling much
more like winter once again to finish out the work week. Some
potential lake effect snow on Friday as well with much colder air in
place. This powerful system and cold front will need to be monitored
closely over the coming days for potential impactful weather
(especially strong winds) across our area.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly flip back the other way for the
start of the weekend as a strong warm front pushes through the area
boosting temperatures back above normal, but also brings the chance
for rain showers, with snow showers possible across the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario where cooler air hangs on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Locally heavy lake effect snow will continue this morning east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The heaviest snow will be off Lake
Ontario and focus across Oswego County this morning, with VLIFR
conditions within the band. Off Lake Erie, persistent lake enhanced
upslope snow will continue to produce IFR/LIFR across the higher
terrain east of the lake through the morning, including KJHW.
Outside of the main lake effect areas, expect VFR to prevail through
the morning hours.

A secondary cold front will move south across the eastern Great
Lakes midday through early afternoon, capturing the lake bands and
spreading them south. The Lake Ontario band may bring a brief burst
of moderate to heavy snow at KROC early this afternoon as it moves
south off the lake. Otherwise, lake effect snow will spread out into
a more widespread spray of light snow showers south of the lakes
this afternoon through tonight with a mix of MVFR/IFR VSBY and MVFR
CIGS.

Outlook...

Monday...Deteriorating to IFR/LIFR east of the lakes in lake
enhanced snow.

Tuesday...Local IFR in lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario early,
otherwise improving to VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance for a few rain/snow
showers east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing. Gusty
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate westerlies this morning will become northwest this
afternoon and evening behind a secondary cold front that will cross
the lower Great Lakes late morning through early afternoon. Small
Craft Advisory conditions will continue on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through this evening.

There will be a very brief break in the winds late tonight and early
Monday morning. Another clipper cold front will then cross the
eastern Great Lakes Monday afternoon and Monday night. This will
bring another period of strong WSW winds to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario Monday late morning through Monday night, with high end
Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ004.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NYZ006>008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ007-008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         this evening for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 14, 1:08 AM EST, 11 hours 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

NYZ001-002-010-011-150615-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-020-085-150615-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-021-150615-
Wyoming-Allegany-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-013-014-150615-
Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A band of lake effect snow will move south off Lake Ontario late this
morning through mid afternoon, with a brief burst of moderate to
heavy snow producing 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-150615-
Wayne-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-150615-
Northern Cayuga-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-150615-
Oswego-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-150615-
Jefferson-Lewis-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-150615-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale force winds are possible Thursday afternoon through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-150615-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-150615-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale force winds are possible Thursday afternoon through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 14, 9:18 AM EST, 3 hours 40 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
918 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Snow             2 NNE Richland          43.60N 76.04W
12/14/2025  M15.5 Inch       Oswego             NY   Cocorahs

0845 AM     Snow             3 WSW Fulton            43.30N 76.46W
12/14/2025  E14.0 Inch       Oswego             NY   Public

0700 AM     Snow             Cassadaga               42.34N 79.32W
12/14/2025  M13.5 Inch       Chautauqua         NY   CO-OP Observer

0700 AM     Snow             Mayville                42.25N 79.50W
12/14/2025  M13.0 Inch       Chautauqua         NY   Cocorahs

0800 AM     Snow             Minetto                 43.40N 76.48W
12/14/2025  M11.0 Inch       Oswego             NY   Cocorahs

0815 AM     Snow             2 N Richland            43.59N 76.05W
12/14/2025  M10.5 Inch       Oswego             NY   Trained Spotter

0800 AM     Snow             1 WNW Springville       42.52N 78.69W
12/14/2025  M10.5 Inch       Erie               NY   Cocorahs

0800 AM     Snow             2 SE Glenwood           42.60N 78.64W
12/14/2025  M10.0 Inch       Erie               NY   Cocorahs

0830 AM     Snow             3 E East Concord        42.55N 78.58W
12/14/2025  M9.6 Inch        Erie               NY   CO-OP Observer

0300 AM     Snow             Orwell                  43.58N 76.00W
12/14/2025  E9.0 Inch        Oswego             NY   Public

0745 AM     Snow             2 WSW Oswego            43.45N 76.54W
12/14/2025  M8.6 Inch        Oswego             NY   CO-OP Observer

0700 AM     Snow             1 WNW Colden            42.65N 78.70W
12/14/2025  M8.4 Inch        Erie               NY   Cocorahs

0800 AM     Snow             3 NE Holland            42.67N 78.51W
12/14/2025  M8.3 Inch        Erie               NY   Trained Spotter

0600 AM     Snow             1 SSE Dewittville       42.23N 79.44W
12/14/2025  M8.3 Inch        Chautauqua         NY   Cocorahs

0700 AM     Snow             2 SW Mexico             43.44N 76.27W
12/14/2025  M8.2 Inch        Oswego             NY   CO-OP Observer

0830 AM     Snow             Minetto                 43.40N 76.48W
12/14/2025  E8.0 Inch        Oswego             NY   Public

0700 AM     Snow             3 W Warsaw              42.74N 78.21W
12/14/2025  M7.0 Inch        Wyoming            NY   CO-OP Observer

0530 AM     Snow             Pulaski                 43.57N 76.13W
12/14/2025  M7.0 Inch        Oswego             NY   Public

0530 AM     Snow             3 NE Oswego             43.49N 76.46W
12/14/2025  E4.0 Inch        Oswego             NY   Public

0500 AM     Snow             1 WNW Fredonia          42.44N 79.35W
12/14/2025  M4.0 Inch        Chautauqua         NY   Cocorahs

0756 AM     Snow             1 SW Franklinville      42.33N 78.46W
12/14/2025  M3.7 Inch        Cattaraugus        NY   CO-OP Observer

0900 AM     Snow             2 NW West Falls         42.72N 78.72W
12/14/2025  M3.5 Inch        Erie               NY   Trained Spotter

0700 AM     Snow             1 SE Cambria Center     43.17N 78.82W
12/14/2025  M3.5 Inch        Niagara            NY   CO-OP Observer

&&
Local storm report, Dec 14, 9:30 AM EST, 3 hours 28 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
930 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Snow             Orwell                  43.58N 76.00W
12/14/2025  M15.2 Inch       Oswego             NY   Public

            Additional 6.2 inches since 3AM.

&&
Local storm report, Dec 14, 10:06 AM EST, 2 hours 52 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1006 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     Snow             Fulton                  43.32N 76.42W
12/14/2025  M14.0 Inch       Oswego             NY   Trained Spotter

            4 inch/hr snowfall rate last hour.

&&
Local storm report, Dec 14, 10:46 AM EST, 2 hours 12 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1046 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     Snow             Perrysburg              42.46N 79.00W
12/14/2025  M18.6 Inch       Cattaraugus        NY   CO-OP Observer

            8.8 inches since 10PM December 13th.

&&

EAJ
Local storm report, Dec 14, 11:18 AM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1118 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Snow             Mannsville              43.72N 76.07W
12/14/2025  E5.0 Inch        Jefferson          NY   Public

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 14, 12:57 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchBUFJefferson, Lewis, Oswego12 hr
Dec 14, 12:58 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFErie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans, Wyoming36 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2025Every lake effect snow warning in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.