Alert archive / New York / Ice Storm Warnings in 2025

Ice Storm Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

March 29, 2025Jefferson County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this ice storm warning at Mar 29, 2025, 9:58 AM EDT for Jefferson County, New York. It was in force for 26 hr. 13 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Mar 29, 2025, 9:58 AM EDT (13:58 UTC)
Expired
Mar 30, 2025, 12:21 PM EDT
In force
26 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

County Jefferson County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 29, 10:00 AM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.012 Se Dexter, NYWatertown Airport.
Mar 29, 10:00 AM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.051 Ssw Watertown, NYLight glaze on cars parked outside and on above ground railings for steps. No impact noted on Roads/driveways.
Mar 29, 10:00 AM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.253 Sw Redwood, NYUpdated report in Plessis.
Mar 29, 1:45 PM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.251 N La Fargeville, NYIce accumulation after first round of freezing rain. Second round ongoing.
Mar 29, 4:30 PM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.231 Ssw Watertown, NY
Mar 29, 7:30 PM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.184 Nw Copenhagen, NY
Mar 29, 9:00 PM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.15Watertown Airport, NY
Mar 30, 1:10 AM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.34 Nw Copenhagen, NYflat ice.
Mar 30, 7:10 AM EDTSNOW/ICE DMG4 Sw Redwood, NYSpotter has seen and can hear branches breaking.
Mar 30, 7:30 AM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.54 Sw Redwood, NYReport from Plessis.
Mar 30, 8:30 AM EDTSNOW/ICE DMG1 Ese Alexandria Bay, NYWidespread power outages across northern Jefferson County, mainly north of Routes 11 and 12. Over 2,500 customers without power.
Mar 30, 9:30 AM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.5Clayton, NYPic showing large tree branches lying on power lines. One wire snapped, with two others just about touching the ground in front yard of residence.
Mar 30, 12:10 PM EDTSNOW/ICE DMG3 Ese Alexandria Bay, NYNumerous reports across northern Jefferson County (Alex Bay/Redwood/Clayton areas) of power lines down, mainly north of Routes 11 & 12 just from sheer weight of icing on wires, however some also taken down by large tree limbs falling on wires. 2,500 to 3,000 c

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 2.0 hours before the alert went out and 245 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2025-03-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2025-03-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 347 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
972 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
347 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
355 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

433 
WWUS41 KBUF 291358
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
958 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

NYZ007-300300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.IS.W.0001.250329T1358Z-250331T0300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the cities of Watertown
958 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain, with event total ice accumulations of a half 
  an inch to an inch in northern Jefferson County, with a quarter to 
  a half inch of ice across southern portions of the county.

* WHERE...Jefferson County, with the highest icing amounts expected 
  toward the Saint Lawrence Valley.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree 
  limbs will cause widespread and possibly long-lasting power 
  outages. Travel will be difficult, especially tonight when roads 
  will become icy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for power outages and slippery roads. If you are going 
outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and 
driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your 
risk of a fall and injury.


&&

$$

NYZ008-300300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lewis-
Including the cities of Lowville
958 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain, with event total ice accumulations of a 
  tenth to a third of an inch. The greatest ice accumulations are 
  expected across the northern third of the county.

* WHERE...Lewis County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and the possibility of 
  isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for slippery roads. If you are going outside, watch your 
first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These 
surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall 
and injury.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>006-011-300300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.250329T1600Z-250330T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, and Batavia
958 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of under a 
  tenth of an inch are expected, with the bulk of any accumulation 
  on area roadways and other ground surfaces coming between late 
  this afternoon and tonight.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, 
  and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for slippery roads. If you are going outside, watch your 
first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These 
surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall 
and injury.

Submit ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel
4 follow-up statements
858 
WWUS41 KBUF 300128
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
928 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

NYZ007-301330-
/O.CON.KBUF.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250331T0300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the cities of Watertown
928 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Event total ice accumulation of a half 
  inch to an inch in northern Jefferson County, with a quarter to a 
  half inch of ice across southern portions of the county.

* WHERE...Jefferson County, with the highest icing amounts expected 
  toward the Saint Lawrence Valley.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree 
  limbs will cause widespread and possibly long-lasting power 
  outages. Travel will be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for power outages and slippery roads. If you are going 
outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and 
driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your 
risk of a fall and injury.


&&

$$

NYZ001>006-011-300900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-250330T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, and Batavia
928 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Total ice accumulations of a tenth to two 
  tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, 
  and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for slippery roads. If you are going outside, watch your 
first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These 
surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall 
and injury.

Submit ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ008-301330-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lewis-
Including the cities of Lowville
928 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain, with event total ice accumulations of a 
  tenth to a third of an inch. The greatest ice accumulations are 
  expected across the northern third of the county.

* WHERE...Lewis County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and the possibility of 
  isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for slippery roads. If you are going outside, watch your 
first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These 
surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall 
and injury.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

HSK
731 
WWUS41 KBUF 300828
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

NYZ001>006-011-300930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-250330T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, and Batavia
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The threat of accumulating ice has largely ended, therefore the 
Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

NYZ007-302030-
/O.CON.KBUF.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250331T0300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the cities of Watertown
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of around one 
  tenth of an inch, mainly across the northern half of the county. 
  The greatest accumulations will be near the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHERE...Jefferson County.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree 
  limbs will cause scattered to numerous power outages. Travel will 
  be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for power outages and slippery roads. If you are going 
outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and 
driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your 
risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

NYZ008-302030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lewis-
Including the cities of Lowville
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations around a few 
  hundredths of an inch, mainly across the northern third of the 
  county.

* WHERE...Lewis County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and the possibility of 
  isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for slippery roads. If you are going outside, watch your 
first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These 
surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall 
and injury.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JJR
941 
WWUS41 KBUF 301040
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
640 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

NYZ008-301145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-250330T2100Z/
Lewis-
Including the cities of Lowville
640 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The threat of accumulating ice has ended, therefore the Winter 
Weather Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

NYZ007-302245-
/O.CON.KBUF.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250331T0300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the cities of Watertown
640 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of around one 
  tenth of an inch, mainly across the northern half of the county. 
  The greatest accumulations will be near the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHERE...Jefferson County, with the highest ice amounts expected 
  toward the Saint Lawrence Valley.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree 
  limbs will cause scattered to numerous power outages. Travel will 
  be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for power outages and slippery roads. If you are going 
outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and 
driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your 
risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

JJR
606 
WWUS41 KBUF 301621
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1221 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

NYZ007-301730-
/O.CAN.KBUF.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250331T0300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the cities of Watertown
1221 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...ICE STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat of significant icing has ended as temperatures continue 
to warm, therefore the Ice Storm Warning has been cancelled.

$$

TMA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this ice storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this ice storm warning went out at Mar 29, 6:41 AM EDT, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 29, 6:41 AM EDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
641 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Elongated low pressure and an associated frontal boundary will
remain draped across the area through the weekend, bringing
widespread unsettled weather that will feature periods of rain for
most areas. The exceptions to this will be across the North
Country...where a mix of rain and freezing rain will persist through
most of Sunday...and across the counties bordering the south shore
of Lake Ontario...where some light freezing rain is expected at
points this afternoon and tonight. With the frontal boundary draped
directly across our area...we can also expect a large north to south
gradient in temperatures both weekend days...with this greatest
today when highs will range from the 30s across the North Country
and the counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario to the mid
60s across the Southern Tier.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of this writing the frontal boundary has pushed into far Southern
Erie and Wyoming counties. This should drift a little further south
and eventually stall out across the Southern Tier and far interior
portions of the Finger Lakes during the course of today into this
evening...before starting to return north again as a warm front
later on tonight as the main wave of low pressure over the Plains
States begins to organize and lift into the Upper Midwest. While
there will still be a rather stark temperature contrast in place
across this boundary...its further south location compared to
earlier projections will result in the colder temps to its north
extending further southward that previously forecast today into
tonight...with this particularly the case for the counties along the
south shore of Lake Ontario...where temperatures are expected to
fall to vicinity of freezing for today and this evening.

In terms of precipitation potential today through tonight...this
will remain greatest (categorical PoPs) from the vicinity of Lake
Ontario eastward across the North Country...which will lie roughly
under the 850 mb warm frontal position and consequently the
strongest/tightest portion of the thermal gradient/baroclinic zone
aloft. South of this...the precipitation will tend to be
increasingly showery and intermittent with increasing southward
extent...with the showers interspersed with some drier periods.

With respect to pcpn type...the North Country will continue to see a
mix of rain and freezing rain through this period...for which Winter
Weather Advisories will remain in effect for Lewis and Jefferson
counties to cover the continued expected icing...which should range
from a tenth to a quarter of an inch across northwestern Lewis
county to a quarter to a half inch across the northern half or so of
Jefferson county. Further south...the further southward push to the
colder air will unfortunately also allow for some (albeit much
lighter) to develop across the strip of counties bordering the south
shore of Lake Ontario (as well as portions of Genesee county) this
afternoon into tonight. While daytime ice accumulations in this
latter area will be mainly light and confined to elevated surfaces
given the high late March sun angle...expect just enough in the way
of minor ice accumulations later this afternoon and evening to
warrant the issuance of another Winter Weather Advisory for the
above area for this afternoon through a good portion of
tonight...with the potential for freezing rain ending as temps begin
to rise again overnight. Elsewhere...thermal profiles should remain
warm enough at the lower levels to support predominantly rain
through tonight...with a slight chance of some thunder across the
Southern Tier this afternoon owing to some very weak surface-based
instability.

With respect to temperatures through tonight...highs today will
range from the 30s in the vicinity of Lake Ontario to the mid 60s
near the Pennsylvania line...with lows tonight then ranging from the
50s across the Southern Tier (which will remain south of the front)
to the 30s across much of the Niagara Frontier/Finger Lakes and
areas east of Lake Ontario.

On Sunday the main wave of low pressure will make its way to Lower
Michigan...and in the process will encourage the frontal boundary to
continue to gradually lift back north again as a warm front...with
the boundary expected to extend from roughly the south shore of Lake
Ontario northeastward across the North Country by the end of the
day. Most areas can expect to see another round of showers as the
boundary pushes back to the north...with the mix or rain and
freezing rain across the North Country gradually trending toward
mainly rain as we push through the day. Otherwise it will be yet
another day with a stark north-south temperature contrast...with
highs ranging from the 30s near the Saint Lawrence River to mid 60s
to lower 70s south of the New York State Thruway.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night, southerly flow ahead of a deepening surface low will
maintain mild air temperatures through the night. Though
temperatures may dip a bit during the evening this southerly flow
will bring rising temperatures through the night, which will also
end the freezing rain threat for northern Jefferson County. Here any
freezing rain Sunday evening will transition to plain rain showers.
By the start of Monday morning temperatures will range through the
mid 50s to mid 60s.

Showers will taper down to scattered activity Sunday night as a mid
level dry slot advances across the region. This activity Sunday
night will become a bit more numerous later in the night ahead of
the upper level trough and a return to deeper moisture.

This mild southerly flow will also bring instability into WNY
overnight. MUCAPE values in the 200 to 500 J/KG range will be enough
to produce a few rumbles of thunder. Of concern is a strong LLJ of
40 to 50 knots overhead. Though not tall, any thunderstorm will have
the capability of bringing these stronger winds to the surface. A
moderate to slight chance for severe t-storms remains for WNY with
the primary threat being damaging winds.

Surface cold front to start Monday morning will be in the vicinity
of Buffalo and Jamestown. Thunder threat will now be central and
eastern zones where a mild airmass in the 50s and 60s will remain
through mid-day, before the cold front plows across the region. Like-
wise, the marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
night will continue into Monday for central and eastern zones.
Falling daytime temperatures behind the front will be some 15
degrees cooler late afternoon than their earlier highs.

Showers, becoming more concentrated Monday ahead of the cold front
will bring a basin average quarter to half inch Sunday night and
Monday, with perhaps up to three quarters of an inch east of Lake
Ontario. Any thunderstorms will have the potential for bringing
higher amounts of rainfall.

A look at the MMEFS of the NAEFS and the GEFS still depicts several
creeks and rivers across our region rising to near bankfull Monday,
but likely remain below flood. High flows, especially for the slow
responding creeks and rivers will linger into midweek.

Surface high pressure will then slide across the region Monday night
and Tuesday behind the surface cold front advecting in much drier
air and temperatures aloft at 850 hPa tumbling down possibly to the
negative teens Celsius. This drier air overhead will quickly end any
light lake effect snow showers through the night southeast of the
Lakes. Limited snow accumulation, with any measurable snow possibly
southeast of Lake Ontario of just a few tenths.

As the center of surface high pressure bears down upon our region
Tuesday, expect dry weather with increasing amounts of sunshine.
Despite the sun temperatures for this first day of April will
largely remain in the 30s. A brisk northwest wind through the day
will lower dewpoints such that relative humidity values plummet to
the 30 percent range, if not into the 20 percent range. Though dry,
recent rains should limit any fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another robust shortwave trough will bring the next weather system
into our region by Wednesday afternoon. Convergence ahead of a 60 to
70 knot LLJ will bring the bulk of the rain showers Wednesday night
to the region. This jet, though not in a favorable environment with
warming aloft, may still bring strong gusts Wednesday night,
especially for the hill tops of WNY.

A cold front will push through the region later Thursday with rain
showers tapering off. Depending upon the position of the surface
high Thursday night and Friday behind this front, a wave of low
pressure from the lower Mississippi Valley behind this front may
bring back rain shower threat for Friday.

Highs ahead of this front Thursday may reach 70F in the Genesee
Valley, while a southwest wind off the cold lakes will keep Buffalo
and Watertown in the lower 60s, if not upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS light rain showers along with LIFR flight
conditions are found along a stalled frontal boundary, with this
boundary stretched along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline
this early morning.

Marginal temperatures near freezing this early morning, that may
even drop a degree or two through the day east of Lake Ontario will
allow for a prolonged period of freezing rain along this stalled
frontal boundary, including at the KART airfield.

Northeast winds along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline will
linger LIFR/IFR ceilings for airfields of KIAG and KROC with periods
of rain. Visibilities will drop to IFR at times through this TAF
cycle. As showers fall with subtle waves along this stalled frontal
boundary, visibilities may improve briefly. Additionally the
northeast winds will produce some cooling of temperatures, with
possibly light freezing rain late this afternoon and through the
overnight time period. This will include the KROC airfield, and
possibly the KIAG airfield.

While KBUF will experience some IFR flight conditions this morning,
there likely will be a brief window this morning and early
afternoon of improvement to VFR with the frontal boundary just
to the north of the airfield, before winds become northeast
later this afternoon with IFR flight conditions becoming locked
in here. Farther from Lake Ontario precipitation here should
remain plain rain.

For the southern two tiers of counties, including the KJHW airfield,
VFR flight conditions will rule with a southerly flow. This flow has
the potential to become a bit gusty between through 21Z.

A strong LLJ around 50 knots at 2K feet will produce LLWS through
the first 6 hours or so of this TAF cycle, mainly for the WNY
TAF sites when they lie south of the frontal boundary.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain...and rain and freezing
rain east of Lake Ontario. A chance of thunder late for far
western TAF sites.

Monday...MVFR with rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
Limited lake effect snow Monday night southeast of Lake
Ontario.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with showers approaching in the
afternoon. Becoming windy with rain showers Wednesday night with
MVFR flight conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A brisk east-northeasterly flow will continue across Lake Ontario
through tonight...before gradually weakening on Sunday as a nearly
stationary frontal boundary over western New York pushes back north
as a warm front. With this in mind...Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay through late Sunday.

Across Lake Erie...moderately brisk west-southwesterly winds will
linger into early this morning...before weakening as the
aforementioned frontal boundary sags a little further southward.
With this in mind...have trimmed back the end time of the current
Small Craft Advisory for Ripley to Buffalo...such that this will end
early this afternoon.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ001>006-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ042-
         043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...JJR
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 29, 5:01 AM EDT, 4 hours 57 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
501 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

NYZ007-008-301015-
Jefferson-Lewis-
501 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-301015-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
501 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday,
with damaging winds the primary severe weather threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-011-301015-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-
501 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-301015-
Chautauqua-
501 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday
night, with damaging winds the primary severe weather threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-012-020-085-301015-
Northern Erie-Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
501 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-021-301015-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
501 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday,
with damaging winds the primary severe weather threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-301015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
501 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-301015-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
501 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JJR

Nearby

Ice Storm Warnings in New York, 2025Every ice storm warning in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.