Gale Warning 22, NWS Buffalo, NY

133 
WHUS71 KBUF 181429
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
929 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

LEZ040-041-190600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251219T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.251219T1200Z-251220T0500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
929 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 9 to 12 feet expected. For the Gale Warning, west 
  winds to 40 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Friday. For
  the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Friday to midnight EST Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-190600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.251218T1500Z-251219T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.251219T1200Z-251220T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
929 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 5 to 8 feet expected. For the Gale Warning, west 
  winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Friday. For
  the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-190600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251219T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.251219T1200Z-251220T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
929 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 6 to 9 feet expected. For the Gale Warning, west 
  winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Friday. For
  the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-190600-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.251219T1200Z-251220T0800Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
929 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 16 to 21 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-190600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
929 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...South winds becoming southwest to 30 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

289 
WHUS71 KBUF 190443
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1143 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

LEZ040-041-192100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251219T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.251219T1200Z-251220T0500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1143 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 45 
  knots and waves 12 to 16 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Friday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Friday to midnight EST Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-192100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251219T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.251219T1200Z-251220T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1143 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 40 
  knots and waves 11 to 15 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Friday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-192100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251219T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.251219T1200Z-251220T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1143 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 5 to 8 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 45 
  knots and waves 16 to 21 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Friday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-192100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.251219T1200Z-251220T0800Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1143 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 16 to 21 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-192100-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1143 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds becoming west to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-192100-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1143 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...South winds becoming southwest to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-192100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1143 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...South winds becoming southwest to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

873 
WHUS71 KBUF 191214
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
714 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

LEZ040-041-192015-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251219T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
714 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-192015-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251219T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
714 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-192015-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
714 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 16 to 21 feet.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-192015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
714 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-192015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
714 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-192015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
714 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

EAJ

202 
WHUS71 KBUF 191803
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
103 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

LEZ040-041-200215-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251220T2100Z-251221T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
103 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 45 knots and waves 
  12 to 16 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 35 knots 
  and waves 8 to 11 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until midnight EST tonight. For the
  Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-200215-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251221T0000Z-251222T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
103 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 45 knots and waves 
  16 to 21 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 40 knots and 
  waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 AM EST Saturday. For the 
  Gale Watch, from Saturday evening through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-200215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
103 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-200215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
103 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-200215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
103 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

546 
WHUS71 KBUF 200111
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
811 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

LEZ040-041-200915-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251220T2100Z-251221T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
811 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 40 knots and waves 
  10 to 14 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 35 knots 
  and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until midnight EST tonight. For 
  the Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-200915-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251221T0000Z-251222T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
811 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 45 knots and waves 
  16 to 21 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 40 knots and 
  waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 AM EST Saturday. For the 
  Gale Watch, from Saturday evening through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-200800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
811 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-200500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
811 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-200500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
811 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

404 
WHUS71 KBUF 200451
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1151 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

LEZ040-041-201300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0500Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251220T2100Z-251221T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1151 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 7 to 10 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 
  35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Saturday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through Sunday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-201300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251221T0000Z-251222T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1151 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 40 knots and waves 
  15 to 19 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 40 knots and 
  waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 AM EST Saturday. For the 
  Gale Watch, from Saturday evening through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-200800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1151 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-201200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T1200Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1151 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-200800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1151 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

594 
WHUS71 KBUF 200755
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
255 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

LOZ043>045-201600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251221T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251221T0000Z-251222T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0023.251221T0600Z-251222T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
255 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds becoming south
  to 30 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet. For the Gale Warning, west
  winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Sunday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-201600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251221T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251221T0000Z-251222T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0023.251221T0600Z-251222T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
255 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds becoming
  southwest to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale 
  Warning, west winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Sunday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-201600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251221T0000Z-251222T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0023.251221T0600Z-251222T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
255 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-201600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0104.251220T2200Z-251222T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
255 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EST SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds becoming south 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-200900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T1200Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
255 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

LOZ030-200900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251220T0800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
255 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

LEZ040-041-201600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-251222T0600Z/
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.A.0018.251220T2100Z-251221T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
255 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds becoming south to 30 knots and waves 9 
  to 12 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
941 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A milder pattern through Thursday night as a southerly flow, at
times with strong winds. Temperatures will rise into the 40s
and lower 50s Thursday as the southerly winds take hold.
These southerly winds will become very strong along the north-
northwesterly downslope regions of the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug
Hill region starting Thursday afternoon, with strong southerly
winds remaining elsewhere, then becoming westerly Friday behind
a strong cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A surface ridge of high pressure will slide to our east tonight.
This surface high will still influence our region this evening, with
winds now lightly from the south, and allowing for temperatures to
dip below the freezing mark.

Later tonight as the surface ridge slides to the east the influences
of a strong western Great Lakes region strong storm system will
begin to take hold of our region. An increasing pressure gradient
will begin to strengthen the southerly flow such that air
temperatures, especially in the west will begin to slowly rise the
later half of the night.

These surface temperatures will continue to increase Thursday with
downslope southerly flow and dry conditions prevailing, allowing for
40s area-wide, and perhaps lower 50s for the Lake Plain, Genesee
Valley and the SLV. Models have trended slower with the arrival of
precipitation with the main upper level shortwave trough lingering
well to our west over the western Great Lakes.

For Thursday a LLJ of 50 knots will further increase to 70 knots by
the evening hours (especially near the I-81 corridor). This will
allow for south-southeast terrain force flow to downslope off the
Chautauqua Ridge, and Tug Hill with favorable areas late Thursday
afternoon and overnight gusting to 60 mph or greater. Have upgraded
the high wind watches to warnings, while beginning a wind advisory
for remaining areas for southerly winds gusting towards 50 mph. This
flow is not the prevailing flow direction for our region, with tree
and tree limbs more susceptible to falling.

The airmass will remain warm through midnight, with gusty southerly
winds continuing. Though prime conditions for snowpack ablation and
snowpack ripening, rainfall amounts up to a half an inch for WNY,
and an inch for Eastern Lake Ontario region will not be enough for
any flooding concerns. Rain showers will move into WNY late
afternoon/early evening and propagate eastward across the region.
Elevated instability is meager, with perhaps 50 J/KG of MUCAPE, so
will not include thunder within the forecast, though a rumble of
thunder along a strong cold frontal passage is possible.

The cold front will make its way across our region the second half
of Thursday night, with strong southerly winds veering to westerly.
Thermal profiles remain warm for much of our region allowing for a
continuation of plain rain showers, though cold air advection late
may begin the transition to snow on the hilltops of WNY the final
few hours of tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Colder air behind a deep, but progressive surface low will see 850mb
temps drop 15-20 degC since early Friday morning throughout the day.
This will lead to a transition of precipitation from rain to snow
through the morning for western NY and around midday for north-
central NY as well as a continuation of strong winds across the
region before high pressure moves overhead Saturday providing a
short break to the active weather.

Strong Winds Continue Through Friday Evening: After the departure of
the strong southerly jet across the warm sector of this late week
system, a 45-50 kt 850mb westerly jet will extend across western NY
starting late Friday morning for the second phase of this wind event
with the upper trough axis passage. Despite being weaker than ~12-18
hours earlier, these winds aloft will still be around the
climatological 90th percentile for mid-December. CAA in the low-
levels will support momentum transfer of these stronger winds toward
the surface which is why the Wind Advisory from Thursday night will
extend through the early evening.

Lake Effect Snow Expected Friday and Friday Night: While morning
precipitation may still be in the liquid variety, expect a quick
transition over to snowfall with the arrival of colder air. Lake-air
temperature differences will be sufficient for lake effect snowfall
development and steep low-level lapse rates will see lake induced
ELs rise toward 7-8 kft through the afternoon (off Lake Erie) and
early evening (off Lake Ontario). Winds will primarily be westerly,
focusing the heaviest lake effect across southern Erie Co, western
Wyoming Co, northern Cattaraugus Co, and Chautauqua Co off Lake Erie
and into the Tug Hill off Lake Ontario. Inversion heights will
gradually fall through the overnight period with high pressure and
drier air aloft sliding overhead for Saturday. This moderate
snowfall Friday afternoon along with gusty winds that would further
reduce visibility with blowing snow could warrant the need to a
Winter Weather Advisory for Friday and Friday night downwind of the
lakes. Will continue to let the subsequent shifts monitor latest
forecast trends.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The high pressure ridge extending northward from the Mid-Atlantic
will be ushered out by a progressive upper level trough traversing
eastward along the US/Canadian border. Southerly flow on the
backside of the ridge will aid temperatures aloft warming ahead of
this front with 850mb temps hovering around 0 degC. This will lead
to precipitation likely falling as rain or wet snow before colder
air arrives early Sunday morning behind a surface cold front. This
frontal passage through western NY Saturday night/early Sunday
morning will also bring gusty winds 25-35 mph. Synoptic moisture
will be limited immediately behind the cold front with a narrow dry
slot shown in deterministic guidance lasting through Sunday morning.
Low-level moisture will return along a secondary trough passage
Sunday afternoon and transition to west-northwest flow focusing any
lake effect east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Latest cluster analysis
shows subpar 850mb RH with no recovery along a secondary trough
Sunday night in a scenario made up of ~25% of the grand ensemble.
The majority of this cluster is made up of EC members, but brings
uncertainty to potential snowfall amounts despite brief periods of
moderate snowfall being possible for the western Southern Tier and
Tug Hill region Sunday afternoon and early evening.

Lake effect snow will linger into Monday morning as inversion
heights continue to gradually fall as surface high pressure slides
overhead. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase headed into the
middle of next week with multiple different solutions from
deterministic/ensemble guidance on the next system passing in the
flow. Generally, height rises across the central CONUS could support
relatively warmer temperatures to close out this overall cold
December. However, latest NBM show MaxTs with large Interquartile
Ranges (Most Likely Range) from the freezing mark up into the mid-
40s across western NY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some lingering MVFR ceilings at the start of the 00Z TAF period will
improve to VFR by late evening for the favorable downslope regions
on a light southerly flow. MVFR ceilings will likely hold for the
Southern Tier, including KJHW.

A strong LLJ will develop late tonight and through the remainder of
the TAF cycle. Before surface wind gusts increase, LLWS will be
included for the western 4 TAF sites late tonight and Thursday
morning.

It will remain dry through the daylight hours of Thursday as
precipitation with a cold front lingers just to our west. Surface
winds from the south Thursday afternoon, likely gusting to 30 to 35
knots which will begin to negate the effects of the still strong LLJ
aloft.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with rain developing from
west to east. Strong wind gusts, especially in downslope areas.

Friday...Rain changing to snow showers from west to east early.
MVFR/IFR improving to VFR/MVFR in most areas, with lake effect snow
showers bringing local IFR east of the lakes. Very windy.

Saturday and Sunday...MVFR/VFR in scattered light snow showers.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A dynamic system will pass across the eastern Great Lakes region
through Friday. Southerly will increase late tonight and
through the day Thursday.

Further increase in southerly flow to gale force is expected over
the lower Great Lakes by Thursday evening, and become even
stronger Friday behind a cold front. Gales to potentially 45
knots on the eastern half of Lake Ontario Friday. A gale watch
has been issued for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

West to northwest winds will slowly diminish Friday night, but small
craft conditions are expected the better part of the weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ001>006-010>014-020-021-085.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ007-008.
     High Wind Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ019.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
         night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...Brothers
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Thomas/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
112 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-181815-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
112 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-181815-
Jefferson-Lewis-
112 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

Behind a cold front snow, and lake effect snow is expected upon the
Tug Hill Friday and Friday night, that combined with still gusty
winds will produce blowing and drifting snow with poor visibilities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-181815-
Oswego-
112 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Behind a cold front snow, and lake effect snow is expected upon the
Tug Hill Friday and Friday night, that combined with still gusty
winds will produce blowing and drifting snow with poor visibilities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-181815-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
112 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-181815-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
112 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-181815-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
112 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-181815-
Chautauqua-
112 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

Behind a cold front snow, and lake effect snow is expected upon the
Chautauqua Ridge Friday and Friday night, that combined with still
gusty winds will produce blowing and drifting snow with poor
visibilities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-085-181815-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
112 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Behind a cold front snow, and lake effect snow is expected,
especially for the Boston Hills, hills of Wyoming County and hills
through Cattaraugus County Friday and Friday night, that combined
with still gusty winds will produce blowing and drifting snow with
poor visibilities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf