Alert archive / New York / Gale Warnings in 2025
Gale Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this gale warning at Jan 1, 2025, 3:45 AM EST. It took effect at Jan 1, 2025, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 39 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 1, 2025, 3:45 AM EST (08:45 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 1, 2025, 1:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Jan 3, 2025, 3:41 AM EST
- In force
- 39 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted.
062 WHUS71 KBUF 010845 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 345 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 LOZ042-011645- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250101T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0017.250101T2100Z-250102T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.250101T1800Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 345 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ043-044-011645- /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.250101T1200Z-250101T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0017.250101T2100Z-250102T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.250101T1800Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- 345 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet expected. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 35 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ045-062>065-011645- /O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0017.250101T2100Z-250102T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.250101T1800Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 345 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet expected. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to the Saint Lawrence River, and the nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-011645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.250101T0900Z-250102T1800Z/ Lower Niagara River- 345 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots expected. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-011645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.250101T0900Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 345 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
8 follow-up statements
762 WHUS71 KBUF 011557 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1057 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 LOZ042-020000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250101T1800Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.250101T1800Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 1057 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this afternoon. For the Gale Warning, until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ043-044-020000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250101T1800Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.250101T1800Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- 1057 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds to 30 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this afternoon. For the Gale Warning, until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ045-062>065-020000- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.250101T1800Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 1057 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet expected. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to the Saint Lawrence River, and the nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-020000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250102T1800Z/ Lower Niagara River- 1057 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-020000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 1057 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
935 WHUS71 KBUF 011831 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 LOZ042>045-062>065-020300- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 131 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-020300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250102T1800Z/ Lower Niagara River- 131 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-020300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 131 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
686 WHUS71 KBUF 020156 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 856 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 LOZ042>045-062>065-021000- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 856 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-021000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250102T1800Z/ Lower Niagara River- 856 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-021000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 856 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
004 WHUS71 KBUF 020824 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 324 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 LOZ043>045-063>065-021630- /O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250103T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 324 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-062-021630- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 324 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-021630- /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250104T0000Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 324 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ SLZ022-024-021630- /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250103T0300Z/ Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 324 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint Regis. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-021630- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250103T0000Z/ Lower Niagara River- 324 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-021630- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 324 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ Hitchcock
282 WHUS71 KBUF 021500 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1000 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 LOZ042-062-021800- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 1000 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ043>045-063>065-022300- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250103T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 1000 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-022300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250104T0000Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 1000 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ SLZ022-024-022300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250103T0300Z/ Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 1000 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint Regis. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-022300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250103T0000Z/ Lower Niagara River- 1000 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-022300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 1000 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
889 WHUS71 KBUF 021828 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 128 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 LOZ042-030300- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250102T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.250102T1828Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 128 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ062-021930- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250102T1800Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 128 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... Winds have dropped below gale force intensity. $$ LOZ043>045-063>065-030300- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250103T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 128 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-030300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250104T0000Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 128 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ SLZ022-024-030300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250103T0300Z/ Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 128 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint Regis. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-030000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250103T0000Z/ Lower Niagara River- 128 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-030300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 128 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
113 WHUS71 KBUF 030233 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 933 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 SLZ022-024-030345- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250103T0300Z/ Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 933 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... $$ LOZ043>045-063>065-030900- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250103T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 933 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-031045- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250104T0000Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 933 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-031045- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 933 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-031045- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250105T2100Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 933 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
471 WHUS71 KBUF 030841 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 341 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 LOZ043-044-031645- /O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250103T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.250103T0841Z-250104T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0001.250104T1800Z-250105T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- 341 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds to 30 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST Saturday. For the Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LOZ045-031645- /O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250103T0900Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250104T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0001.250104T1800Z-250105T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 341 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds to 30 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 30 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST Saturday. For the Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LOZ063>065-031645- /O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250103T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0001.250104T1800Z-250105T0900Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 341 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet possible. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LOZ042-031645- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250104T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0001.250104T1800Z-250105T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 341 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST Saturday. For the Gale Watch, from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LEZ020-031645- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250105T2100Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 341 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-031645- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-250106T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 341 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ062-031645- /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0001.250104T1800Z-250105T0900Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 341 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ Hitchcock
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 1, 3:03 AM EST, 42 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 1, 3:03 AM EST, 42 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
303 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening low pressure crossing our region this morning will
generate some widespread light rain, then cold air in its wake will
allow the rain to change to a wet snow today. The snow will be heavy
at times later today into Thursday for areas east and southeast of
the lakes where significant snow accumulations are anticipated. Cold
weather with more lake effect can be expected through the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Currently, showers are located over Lake Erie and the Niagara
Peninsula, and slowly filling in toward the north-northeast. Another
larger area of showers is found across the eastern third of the
forecast area, mainly from Wayne County eastward. This batch of
showers is pushing north, and filling in over the North Country.
Temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s for most areas.
For Western NY rainfall amounts will only pick up a tenth of an inch
or so. The eastern Lake Ontario region should pick up as much as a
half inch of rain though...as cyclogenesis off the coast will lead
to a southeast 40kt low level jet that will push a wealth of
Atlantic moisture back up across that area where orographics will
help to generate more significant rainfall.
Colder air on the backside of this complex storm system will then
encourage the light rain over the far western counties to change to
wet snow during the immediate pre dawn hours...but am not expecting
any nighttime accumulation due to 'mild' antecedent conditions.
Temperatures this morning will only settle into the mid and upper
30s, or even low 40s in some areas.
Things will then become very interesting today...as deepening cold
air will change all of the synoptic based precipitation to wet snow
during the course of the day. While fairly deep synoptic moisture
within the deep cyclonic flow will support widespread pcpn...the
bulk of any accumulating snow will be confined to areas east-
southeast of the lakes. In the case of the Srn Tier... a 290 flow
within a virtually uncapped environment will produce multiple bands
of moderately heavy lake effect snow. Since this flow will be
orthogonal to the Chautauqua ridge...there should be a general area
of accumulating snow in that area with daytime accumulations of 5 to
8 inches. A lake effect snow warning has been issued for this
area.The transition to snow will be slower east of Lake Ontario
where a more synoptic based snow should only accumulate 1 to 3
inches in the vcnty of the Tug Hill before nightfall.
Otherwise...a 40-45kt low level jet within the cold advection will
produce gusty winds over the western counties for today. Wind gusts
will reach 40 mph at times...particularly over the higher terrain.
For tonight...H85 temps as low as -12c will continue to direct
accumulating lake snows across the western Srn Tier. While the
removal of mid level synoptic moisture and the introduction of a cap
arnd 8-10kft will limit accumulations off Lk Erie...fresh nighttime
accumulations of another 5 to 8 inches are anticipated. This should
translate into 24 hour amounts that could easily exceed a foot
across the higher terrain.
Meanwhile...moderately heavy snow will be found across much of the
Eastern lake Ontario region...largely synoptic in nature with a
healthy amount of the forcing being supplied by orographics. Up to a
foot of relatively wet snow will be focused on the Tug Hill.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A phased +PNA/-NAO pattern across the Northern Hemisphere will
translate to a synoptic setup over North America this period (and
well beyond) featuring very persistent broad scale troughing over
the eastern third of the CONUS. Cross-polar flow within this trough
will maintain an influx of arctic air across the eastern Great
Lakes, supporting a prolonged lake response and periods of moderate
snowfall downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, in addition to
a trend towards below normal temperatures. This said, the forecast
for this event will not be so straightforward as there will be
periodic lulls in band intensity, oscillations in band placement,
and some uncertainty in the finer details of both.
In general, with the prevailing winds providing greater fetch, more
consistent upstream connections to Lake Huron, and overall slightly
better moisture profiles, greater snowfall amounts and peak snowfall
rates are expected off Lake Ontario. Details expected amounts to
come, but prevailing WNW flow through the mid-levels should focus
the greatest additional snowfall amounts south of the Buffalo and
Watertown metro areas.
A relatively flat sfc-850H ridge cresting into the eastern Great
Lakes should put a damper on the overall response off both lakes
Thursday, especially during the morning hours as a weak subsidence
inversion more decisively cuts into the DGZ. While only minor
additional accumulations are expected east of Lake Erie, the
aforementioned upstream connection to Lake Huron could allow for
greater accumulations during the day ESE of Lake Ontario. A plume of
deeper synoptic moisture approaching from the Ohio Valley Thursday
night will be followed by a sharp mid-level trough axis from the
northwest on Friday, as the center of the primary mid-level
circulation initially over New Brunswick begins to retrograde
westward back across Quebec. This will cause EQLs to rise to >11kft
over both lakes by Friday morning, likely reinvigorating the lake
response while a subtle backing of the wind profiles causes the
heavier snowfall to shift slight further north. BUFKIT soundings
introduce some uncertainty here however, as both the GFS/NAM
indicate the presence of some mid-level dry air potentially cutting
into the DGZ especially off Lake Erie. Where moisture looks greater
off Lake Ontario, moderate to heavy snowfall is likely within the
lake effect band as it wobbles about Thursday night, particularly
across Oswego and far southern Lewis counties.
With the approach of the trough axis Friday and its passage Friday
night, the primary steering flow will shift from west to WNW. This
should cause the lake effect bands to very gradually wobble back
southwards, especially Friday night. With greater synoptic moisture
in place, Friday will 'likely' be the snowier day of the two off
both lakes, with increasing chances for more lake effect snow
showers outside the primary bands.
Off Lake Erie, up to a foot of additional accumulation will be
possible Thursday through Friday night east of the lake, mainly
across far southern Erie County, western Chautauqua, and northern
Cattaraugus. Off Lake Ontario, an additional 2-3 feet looks
reasonable across Oswego and southern Lewis counties, though
this will heavily depend on the upstream connection to Lake
Huron and how much the band oscillates north and south.
Outside of the lake effect snow potential, blustery weather is
expected this period as temperatures will struggle to rise above
freezing just about anywhere on Thursday, then be more solidly
below freezing on Friday. The stiff breeze with gusts of 20-30
mph will likely support areas of blowing snow.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough will remain over the Northeast Saturday and
Sunday, with cold (850 hPa temperatures negative mid-teens Celsius)
northwest flow continuing multiple bands of lake effect snow,
narrowly heavy at times, downwind of the eastern Great Lakes.
A shortwave ridge will push over our region Monday and Tuesday,
diminishing the lake effect snow intensity, though continued
northwest to northerly flow will maintain light lake effect snow
showers throughout the period.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Conditions will deteriorate to a mix of MVFR/IFR this morning as
rain spreads across the region. The most dramatic drops will be with
the wind shift as the sfc low tracks through the area this morning.
Following the wind shift expect mainly IFR flight conditions.
Today...IFR to MVFR cigs will be in place as the rain will gradually
mix with and change to snow. As this process takes place...vsbys
will also fall to IFR levels. Along with the IFR to MVFR
conditions...it will become rather windy. Sfc wind gusts at most of
the TAF sites will exceed 30 knots for the midday and afternoon.
Tonight, IFR and LIFR VSBYs & CIGs in areas where snow falls, mainly
east to southeast of both lakes. All TAF sites will start out with
reduced flight categories, but as snow becomes less widespread and
more toward a pure lake effect, conditions will improve through the
night to mainly MVFR northeast of the lakes.
Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...LIFR in bands of lake effect snow east of
the lakes, otherwise MVFR/VFR with scattered light snow showers.
&&
.MARINE...
An area of low pressure tracking across Western NY early this
morning will briefly cause winds to lower as it crosses. Earlier
moderate easterly winds on Lake Ontario will briefly drop off and
become north. Moderate north to northeast winds will then become
strong westerlies in the wake of the aforementioned storm system
today. Based on this, issued small craft headlines as outlined below.
Wind gusts on Lake Ontario will likely reach gale force late
today and tonight...so a gale watch has been issued.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for NYZ004.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
Sunday for NYZ005>008.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST
Sunday for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for
LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
LOZ042.
Gale Watch from this afternoon through Thursday afternoon
for LOZ042>045-062>065.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH/SW
SHORT TERM...PP/TMA
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH/SW
MARINE...Apffel/RSH/TMAHazardous weather outlook, Dec 31, 1:34 PM EST, 14 hours 11 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 134 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2024 NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-021-011900- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario- Allegany- 134 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-019-020-085-011900- Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 134 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2024 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lake Effect Snow Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ005>008-011900- Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 134 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2024 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lake Effect Snow Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ004-011900- Wayne- 134 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-011900- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 134 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042>045-062>065-011900- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 134 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2024 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.