Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2025
Flood Watch 3, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Mar 14, 2025, 3:41 AM EDT for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Mar 16, 2025, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 36 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 14, 2025, 3:41 AM EDT (07:41 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 16, 2025, 8:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 17, 2025, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 36 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2264 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 33 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 110 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
659
WGUS61 KBUF 140741
FFABUF
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ006>008-141900-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0003.250316T1200Z-250318T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
341 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. FLooding is most likely
along streams and rivers which drain the Tug Hill Plateau and
western foothills of the Adirondacks.
* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If
flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller
streams and in low lying areas Sunday and Sunday night, with
larger rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of rain may produce 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain Sunday
through Sunday night, with the greatest rainfall amounts
likely overlapping areas with significant snowpack across the
Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Hitchcock12 follow-up statements
554
WGUS61 KBUF 141840
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
240 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ006>008-150400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.250316T1200Z-250318T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
240 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. FLooding is most likely
along streams and rivers which drain the Tug Hill Plateau and
western foothills of the Adirondacks.
* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If
flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller
streams and in low lying areas Sunday and Sunday night, with
larger rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday. The most
prone areas for flooding will be where ice jams typically
develop.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of rain may produce 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain Sunday
through Sunday night, with the greatest rainfall amounts
likely overlapping areas with significant snowpack across the
Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
EAJ112
WGUS61 KBUF 150255
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1055 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ006>008-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.250316T1200Z-250318T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1055 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. FLooding is most likely
along streams and rivers which drain the Tug Hill Plateau and
western foothills of the Adirondacks.
* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If
flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller
streams and in low lying areas Sunday and Sunday night, with
larger rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday. The most
prone areas for flooding will be where ice jams typically
develop.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of rain may produce 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain Sunday
through Sunday night, with the greatest rainfall amounts
likely overlapping areas with significant snowpack across the
Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
TMA989
WGUS61 KBUF 150745
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
345 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ006>008-152000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.250316T1200Z-250318T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
345 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. FLooding is most likely
along streams and rivers which drain the Tug Hill Plateau and
western foothills of the Adirondacks.
* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If
flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller
streams and in low lying areas Sunday and Sunday night, with
larger rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday. There is also
a low chance of flooding from ice jams in areas where significant
ice remains.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of rain may produce 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain Sunday
through Sunday night, with the greatest rainfall amounts
likely overlapping areas with significant snowpack across the
Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Hitchcock570
WGUS61 KBUF 151727
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ006>008-160500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.250316T1200Z-250318T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
127 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. FLooding is most likely
along streams and rivers which drain the Tug Hill Plateau and
western foothills of the Adirondacks.
* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If
flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller
streams and in low lying areas Sunday and Sunday night, with
larger rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday. There is also
a low chance of flooding from ice jams in areas where significant
ice remains.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of rain may produce 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain Sunday
through Sunday night, with the greatest rainfall amounts
likely overlapping areas with significant snowpack across the
Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Apffel858
WGUS61 KBUF 160221
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1021 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ006>008-161030-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.250316T1200Z-250318T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1021 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. FLooding is most likely
along streams and rivers which drain the Tug Hill Plateau and
western foothills of the Adirondacks.
* WHEN...From 8 AM EDT Sunday through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If
flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller
streams and in low lying areas Sunday and Sunday night, with
larger rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday. There is also
a low chance of flooding from ice jams in areas where significant
ice remains.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of rain may produce 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain Sunday
through Sunday night, with the greatest rainfall amounts
likely overlapping areas with significant snowpack across the
Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
TMA260
WGUS61 KBUF 160709
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
309 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ006>008-162000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.250316T1200Z-250318T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
309 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. Flooding is most likely
along streams and rivers which drain the Tug Hill Plateau and
western foothills of the Adirondacks.
* WHEN...From 8 AM EDT this morning through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If
flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller
streams and in low lying areas this afternoon through tonight,
with larger rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday. There is
also a low chance of flooding from ice jams in areas where
significant ice remains.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of rain may produce 0.75 to 1.0 inches of rain today
through tonight, with the greatest rainfall amounts likely
overlapping areas with significant snowpack across the Tug
Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Hitchcock153
WGUS61 KBUF 161406
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1006 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ006>008-170300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-250318T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1006 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. Flooding is most likely
along the Black River, and is also possible along creeks and
streams where snow pack still remains.
* WHEN...Through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If
flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller
streams and in low lying areas late this afternoon through
tonight, with larger rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday.
There is also a low chance of flooding from ice jams in areas
where significant ice remains.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of rain may produce 0.75 to 1 inches of rain today
through tonight, with the greatest rainfall amounts likely
overlapping areas with significant snowpack across the Tug
Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Apffel297
WGUS61 KBUF 161848
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
248 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ006>008-170500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-250318T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
248 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. Flooding is most likely
along the Black River, and is also possible along creeks and
streams where snow pack still remains in place.
* WHEN...Through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If
flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller
streams and in low lying areas through tonight, with larger
rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday. There is also a low
chance of flooding from ice jams in areas where significant ice
remains.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of rain may produce 0.75 to 1 inches of rain through
this evening, with the greatest rainfall amounts likely
overlapping areas with significant snowpack across the Tug
Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Apffel726 WGUS61 KBUF 170159 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 959 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 .Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical levels. NYZ006>008-171000- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-250318T0000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 959 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. Flooding is most likely along the Black River, and is also possible along creeks and streams where snow pack still remains in place. * WHEN...Through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. If flooding develops, the first impacts would be along smaller streams and in low lying areas through tonight, with larger rivers possibly rising to flood stage Monday. There is also a low chance of flooding from ice jams in areas where significant ice remains. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ TMA
358 WGUS61 KBUF 170802 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 402 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 .Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical levels. NYZ006>008-171900- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-250318T0000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 402 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive runoff from rain and snowmelt yesterday continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. Flooding is most likely along rivers and creeks that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks. * WHEN...Through this evening in most areas. If flooding materializes along the Black River, high water will continue through Wednesday or Thursday. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. The potential for flooding will decrease this morning along small, fast responding creeks. Water levels will continue to rise today on larger rivers such as the Black River, Moose River, and Beaver River, with flooding possible starting later today. There is also a low chance of flooding from ice jams in areas where significant ice remains. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Hitchcock
569 WGUS61 KBUF 171520 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1120 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 .Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical levels. NYZ006>008-180000- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-250318T0000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1120 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive runoff from rain and snowmelt yesterday continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. Flooding is most likely along rivers and creeks that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks. * WHEN...Through this evening in most areas. If flooding materializes along the Black River, high water will continue through Wednesday or Thursday. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. The potential for flooding will decrease along small, fast responding creeks. Water levels will continue to rise today on larger rivers such as the Black River, Moose River, and Beaver River, with flooding possible starting later today. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Apffel
134 WGUS61 KBUF 172351 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 751 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 NYZ006>008-180100- /O.EXP.KBUF.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-250318T0000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 751 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The Flood Watch will expire for a portion of central New York, including the following counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. No new flooding is expected, therefore the Flood Watch will be allowed to expire. Please refer to any Flood Warnings for information on existing flooding. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures. $$ TMA
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Mar 14, 3:31 AM EDT, 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 3:31 AM EDT, 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
331 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moving east from the Canadian maritimes will combine
with a developing significant storm system over the central plains
to circulate notably milder weather into our region through the
upcoming weekend. The fair dry weather will persist through at least
tonight before conditions deteriorate over the weekend with an
increasing potential for showers. This will include the risk for a
soaking rain on Sunday, especially east of the Genesee valley.
Much cooler albeit drier weather then moves back in for Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Superb spring weather today as surface high pressure extends back
across the eastern Great Lakes from the Canadian Maritimes, with a
broad negatively tilted mid-level ridge across much of the
Northeast. Gentle southeasterly winds and modest WAA (850H temps
nearing +10C) with mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to
reach the mid/upper 60s and even low 70s south of Lake Ontario. Lake
influences should be minimal, though it will be slightly cooler near
the immediate southwestern shoreline. East of the lake, temperatures
will rise into the low 60s across the lower terrain areas, with 50s
at higher elevations.
The ridge of high pressure will gradually slide east through tonight
as a potent low pressure system over the central Plains this
afternoon tracks northeast into the Upper Midwest. While any showers
with this system are expected to hold off until after daybreak, the
tightening pressure gradient will cause the southerly breeze to
freshen, especially off the Chautauqua Ridge where gusts 30-35mph
are expected. Temperatures will only fall back into the upper 40s
and low 50s across the Lake Plains, with low/mid 40s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The warm and tranquil pattern across our region will turn more
active over the weekend, as a deep and complex trough moves east
across the nation. The most active period will be Sunday, with
locally heavy rain, significant snowmelt east of Lake Ontario, and
gusty winds.
Saturday, an initial mid level shortwave and pre-frontal trough will
accelerate out ahead of the main longwave trough and enter Western
NY by late morning or midday, then continue to weaken as it moves
northeast across the rest of the area through the afternoon and
evening. This feature will be moving into a ridge position and
associated dry air and subsidence, which will decrease rain chances
and amounts with time and eastern extent. The best chance of
measurable rain will be across Western NY from late morning through
mid to late afternoon. There may be just enough instability to
support an isolated thunderstorm or two as well. Otherwise, expect
increasing clouds from west to east Saturday. Despite the clouds,
strong warm advection and southerly downslope flow will boost
temperatures well into the 60s in most areas, with low 70s possible
on the lake plains of Western NY.
Saturday evening should be mainly dry, with just a few spotty light
showers. More appreciable forcing for ascent and deeper moisture
will arrive in Western NY by late Saturday night, with increasing
coverage of showers. Persistent southerly winds will keep the
boundary layer mixed, with lows only dropping into the mid to upper
50s in most areas.
Sunday through Sunday night, the deep longwave trough will move east
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A strong surface low will
move from Minnesota Saturday to Hudson Bay Sunday, with another
southern stream shortwave supporting the development of a strong
baroclinic wave along the advancing cold front. This wave of low
pressure will cross the Ohio Valley Saturday night, then move north
along the frontal zone Sunday and merge with the initial surface low
over northern Quebec by Sunday night. A broad area of strong forcing
for ascent will cross the eastern Great Lakes Sunday through Sunday
evening, with strong DPVA and height falls ahead of the trough axis,
strengthening upper level jet dynamics, mid/upper level diffluent
flow, and strong low level frontogenesis along and east of the
frontal wave. Deep moisture will be drawn northward after several
days of strong southerly flow ahead of the trough.
Widespread showers will develop Sunday morning across Western NY,
then advance eastward to the eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday
afternoon and evening, before tapering off from west to east as the
cold front surges east across the eastern Great Lakes following the
frontal wave. Strong low level flow and associated terrain
influences will result in a range of rainfall amounts, modulated by
upslope/downslope processes. Most areas can expect 1/3 to 3/4 of an
inch of rain Sunday, greatest across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and lowest in the Genesee Valley and
lake plains of Western NY where downsloping will reduce rainfall
amounts. The highest rain totals will likely be found east of Lake
Ontario, where the strongest frontogenesis will interact with
southerly upslope flow into the southern Tug Hill and western
foothills of the Adirondacks. Rainfall amounts of 1.0" to 1.5" are
possible in this area. More on the impact of this rainfall in the
hydrology section below.
Finally, it will become quite windy Saturday through Sunday with a
persistent, strong low level jet overhead within the warm sector.
Ongoing warm advection and associated poor lapse rates will keep the
majority of the stronger wind aloft. Nonetheless, expect gusts of 30-
40 mph at times across higher terrain and in downslope areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A brief push of cooler air will arrive late Sunday night and Monday
behind the weekend system. Despite the significant cooldown compared
to the weekend, temperatures will still run a little above average
Monday, with highs in the low to mid 40s in most areas. A light
rain/snow mix is possible late Sunday night and early Monday morning
as the trough axis crosses the eastern Great Lakes, mainly in
upslope areas east of the lakes. This will quickly end through the
morning, with clearing skies from west to east.
The cooldown will not last long. Another Pacific trough will move
across the western and central US Tuesday through Wednesday, forcing
strong downstream height rises across the eastern US. A building
mid/upper level ridge will support another period of well above
average temperatures, peaking Wednesday when the lower elevations of
Western NY may make another run at 70F. Dry weather will prevail
from Monday afternoon through Wednesday with high pressure surface
and aloft.
Thursday, the strong Pacific trough and associated surface low will
reach the Great Lakes, with the associated cold front moving into
the eastern Great Lakes later in the day. Rain chances will increase
later Wednesday night and Thursday as moisture and forcing increase
ahead of this system.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fair VFR weather with light winds can be expected through the day as
high pressure extends across the eastern Great Lakes from the
Canadian Maritimes.
A storm system moving into the Upper Midwest will cause the pressure
gradient to tighten across the forecast area tonight with
strengthening southeasterly flow. A strong southwesterly LLJ moving
in from the west could bring LLWS to the terminals near the end of
the 06z TAF cycle, particularly at KIAG/KBUF/KJHW.
Outlook...
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with rain showers likely and a small chance of
thunderstorms, mainly from KROC westward. Mainly VFR further east.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers.
Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Broad surface high pressure will extend back across the lakes from
the eastern Canadian Maritimes today. Northeasterly breezes will
freshen some through the day, then turn more southerly and further
strengthen tonight into Saturday as low pressure tracks across the
far western Great Lakes. South-southeasterly breezes will remain
elevated into Sunday before turning southwesterly behind a strong
passing cold front. Despite the general offshore wave action, winds
may be strong enough to warrant SCAs on the waters over the weekend,
and then possibly into early next week as brisk winds become onshore.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO STARTING SUNDAY...
A strong and moisture rich system will move through the Great Lakes
and Northeast this weekend. Latest model and ensemble guidance
continues to support a general 0.35" to 0.75" across most of the
area, and 1.0" to 1.5" east of Lake Ontario. For most of the area,
these rainfall amounts are not a concern with minimal snowpack left.
East of Lake Ontario, significant snowpack remains, especially
across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western
Adirondacks. 6" to 12" of SWE remains in the snowpack across the
higher terrain, and this snow is now fully ripened after several
warm spells. Runoff will ramp up significantly east of Lake Ontario
this weekend from a combination of snowmelt and rainfall.
The most likely larger river to reach flood stage will be the middle
and lower reaches of the Black River, with tributaries flowing from
many of the areas that still have significant snowpack. Latest
ensemble river guidance suggests Minor flood stage is the most
likely scenario, with a lower potential to approach moderate flood
stage. The upper reaches of the Black River and Moose River will
also see significant rises, with Action stage the most likely
scenario, and a low chance of Minor flood stage. Other rivers and
creeks that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks will
also see significant rises, including but not limited to the Salmon
River system, the Beaver River, and the Independence River.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
NYZ006>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...PP/RSH
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP
HYDROLOGY...HitchcockHazardous weather outlook, Mar 13, 4:41 AM EDT, 23 hours before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 441 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-140930- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee- Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- 441 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-140930- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 441 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The combination of run-off from snow melt due to warm weather and rainfall amounts 0.50 to 1.0 inch Saturday night through Sunday will cause flows on rivers and creeks to rise. This may result in flooding along the Black River and other rivers that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks Sunday through early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-140930- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 441 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042>045-062>065-140930- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 441 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Hitchcock
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.