Flood Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

988 
WGUS61 KBUF 031428
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
928 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-040400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.250304T1800Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
928 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by significant snowmelt and a general half 
  to three quarters of an inch of rainfall. Rainfall within the 
  Genesee Valley may remain just below half an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, 
  Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, 
  Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. The most prone 
  areas for flooding will be where ice jams typically develop.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - An intense storm system moving from the central plains across
    the central Great Lakes will send a surge of Spring like
    warmth the across our region Tuesday and Wednesday.
    Temperatures will soar into the 50s over the western counties
    on Tuesday with the mercury remaining well above freezing
    Tuesday night. Temperatures will then climb well into the 50s
    for the bulk of the region on Wednesday while being
    accompanied by a general half to three quarters of an inch of
    rainfall. The fast melt off of the snowpack will combine with
    this rainfall to cause significant rises to area tributaries
    with flooding becoming possible. Flooding concerns will be
    particularly elevated in areas where tributaries are prone to
    ice jam flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

DRT

608 
WGUS61 KBUF 040131
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
831 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-041215-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.250304T1800Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
831 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by significant snowmelt and a general half 
  to three quarters of an inch of rainfall. Rainfall within the 
  Genesee Valley may remain just below half an inch.

* WHERE...Western and North Central New York.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. The most prone 
  areas for flooding will be where ice jams typically develop.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - An intense storm system moving from the central plains across
    the central Great Lakes will send a surge of Spring like
    warmth the across our region Tuesday and Wednesday.
    Temperatures will soar into the 50s over the western counties
    on Tuesday with the mercury remaining well above freezing
    Tuesday night. Temperatures will then climb well into the 50s
    for the bulk of the region on Wednesday while being
    accompanied by a general half to three quarters of an inch of
    rainfall. The fast melt off of the snowpack will combine with
    this rainfall to cause significant rises to area tributaries
    with flooding becoming possible. Flooding concerns will be
    particularly elevated in areas where tributaries are prone to
    ice jam flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Apffel

818 
WGUS61 KBUF 041009
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
509 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-042000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.250304T1800Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
509 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by significant snowmelt and a general half 
  to three quarters of an inch of rainfall.

* WHERE...Western and north central New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, 
  Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, 
  Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...From 1 PM EST this afternoon into Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from significant snowmelt and a general 
  half inch of rain may result in flooding of rivers, smaller 
  tributaries, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. The 
  most prone areas for flooding will be where ice jams typically 
  develop. The greatest risk for ice jam flooding will be later 
  tonight through Wednesday with the risk for river based flooding 
  coming mainly Wednesday night and Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - An intense storm system moving from the central plains across
    the central Great Lakes will send a surge of Spring like
    warmth the across our region through Wednesday. Temperatures
    will soar into the 50s over the western counties today with
    the mercury remaining well above freezing tonight.
    Temperatures will then climb well into the 50s for the bulk
    of the region on Wednesday while being accompanied by a
    general half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall. The
    fast melt off of the snowpack will combine with this rainfall
    to cause significant rises to area tributaries with flooding
    becoming possible. Flooding concerns will be particularly
    elevated in areas where tributaries are prone to ice jam
    flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

RSH

586 
WGUS61 KBUF 041912
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
212 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-050400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
212 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by significant snowmelt and a general half 
  to three quarters of an inch of rainfall.

* WHERE...Western and north central New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, 
  Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, 
  Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from significant snowmelt and a general 
  half to three quarters of an inch of rain may result in flooding 
  of rivers, smaller tributaries, and other low-lying and 
  flood-prone locations. The most prone areas for flooding will be 
  where ice jams typically develop. The greatest risk for ice jam 
  flooding will be later tonight through Wednesday with the risk for 
  river based flooding coming mainly Wednesday night and Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - An intense storm system moving from the central plains and
    across the central Great Lakes will send a surge of Spring
    like warmth to our region through Wednesday evening.
    Temperatures will only fall back to the lower 40s this
    evening before increasing overnight. Widespread 50s are
    forecasted for the entire region for Thursday. These
    temperatures will be accompanied by a general half to three
    quarters of an inch of rainfall. The fast melt off of the
    snowpack will combine with this rainfall to cause significant
    rises to area tributaries with flooding becoming possible.
    Flooding concerns will be particularly elevated in areas
    where tributaries are prone to ice jam flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

DRT

665 
WGUS61 KBUF 050229
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
929 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-051100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
929 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by significant snowmelt and a general half 
  to three quarters of an inch of rainfall.

* WHERE...Western and north central New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, 
  Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, 
  Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from significant snowmelt and a general 
  half to three quarters of an inch of rain may result in flooding 
  of rivers, smaller tributaries, and other low-lying and 
  flood-prone locations. The most prone areas for flooding will be 
  where ice jams typically develop. The greatest risk for ice jam 
  flooding will be Wednesday through Wednesday night with the risk 
  for river based flooding coming mainly Wednesday night through 
  Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - An intense storm system moving across the central Great Lakes
    will send a surge of Spring like warmth to our region through
    Wednesday evening. Temperatures will only fall back to the
    lower 40s this evening before increasing overnight.
    Widespread 50s are forecasted for the entire region for
    Thursday. These temperatures will be accompanied by a general
    half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall. The fast melt
    off of the snowpack will combine with this rainfall to cause
    significant rises to area tributaries with flooding becoming
    possible. Flooding concerns will be particularly elevated in
    areas where tributaries are prone to ice jam flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

784 
WGUS61 KBUF 051019
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
519 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-052000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
519 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by significant snowmelt and a general half 
  inch of rainfall.

* WHERE...Western and north central New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, 
  Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, 
  Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from significant snowmelt and a general 
  half inch of rain may result in flooding of rivers, smaller 
  tributaries, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. The 
  most prone areas for flooding will be where ice jams typically 
  develop. The greatest risk for ice jam flooding will be into this 
  evening with the risk for river based flooding later tonight into 
  Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - An intense storm system moving across Lower Michigan will
    send a surge of Spring like warmth to our region through
    tonight. Widespread temperatures in the 50s are forecasted
    for the entire region today with the mercury remaining above
    freezing into Thursday. These temperatures will be
    accompanied by a general half inch of rainfall. The fast melt
    off of the snowpack will combine with this rainfall to cause
    significant rises to area tributaries with flooding becoming
    possible. Flooding concerns will be particularly elevated in
    areas where tributaries are prone to ice jam flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

RSH

127 
WGUS61 KBUF 051951
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
251 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-060615-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
251 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by significant snowmelt and a general half 
  inch of rainfall.

* WHERE...Western and north central New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, 
  Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, 
  Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from significant snowmelt and a general 
  half inch of rain may result in flooding of rivers, smaller 
  tributaries, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. The 
  most prone areas for flooding will be where ice jams typically 
  develop. The greatest risk for ice jam flooding will be into this 
  evening with the risk for river based flooding later tonight into 
  Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - An intense storm system moving across Lower Michigan will
    send a surge of Spring like warmth to our region through
    tonight. Widespread temperatures will be above freezing into
    Thursday. These temperatures will be accompanied by a general
    half inch of rainfall. The fast melt off of the snowpack will
    combine with this rainfall to cause significant rises to area
    tributaries with flooding becoming possible. Flooding
    concerns will be particularly elevated in areas where
    tributaries are prone to ice jam flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

HSK

680 
WGUS61 KBUF 060231
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
931 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-061045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
931 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall and rapid snowmelt 
  continues to be possible.

* WHERE...Western and north central New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, 
  Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, 
  Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from significant snowmelt and a general 
  half inch of rain may result in flooding of rivers, smaller 
  tributaries, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. The 
  most prone areas for flooding will be where ice jams typically 
  develop.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - A strong storm system will pass northwest of the region
    tonight, with rain and very warm temperatures resulting in
    rapid runoff. Excessive runoff from rain and snowmelt will
    result in significant rises on area rivers and creeks. Minor
    flooding is possible in some areas, especially where ice jams
    occur.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

138 
WGUS61 KBUF 060821
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
321 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-060930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua,
Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
321 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for portions of central and western New 
York, including the following counties, in central New York, 
Northern Cayuga. In western New York, Allegany, Cattaraugus, 
Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, 
Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

NYZ006>008-061800-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
321 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain, rapid snowmelt, and ice jams 
  continues to be possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following 
  counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Flooding in low lying areas is possible. Flooding due to 
  ice jams is also possible. The most prone areas for flooding will 
  be where ice jams typically develop.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - An area of rain moving across the area combined with recent
    snow melt will cause levels on rivers and creeks to rise.
    Minor flooding is possible in some areas, especially where
    ice jams occur. Minor lowland flooding is also possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Apffel

333 
WGUS61 KBUF 061754
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1254 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

NYZ006>008-061900-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-250306T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1254 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch will expire for a portion of central New York, 
including the following counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Temperatures will 
continue to fall, which will allow for the snowmelt to significantly 
slow down. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

$$

HSK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A pronounced day-to-day warming trend is now set to begin as we kick
off the new work week with highs in the 20s and 30s Monday, warming
into the 50s for much of the area for Tuesday and certainly
Wednesday. Combined with the potential for rainfall of a general
half inch...there will be a growing risk of ice jam flooding on area
tributaries. Colder air will then return for the latter half of the
work week, with a return to much more seasonable temperatures and
chances for some snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
While some nuisance light lake effect snows will persist into the
initial daylight hours for areas along the south shore of Lake
Ontario...accumulations between 2 AM and mid morning will be
negligible...mainly under an inch or two.

Otherwise...an expansive area of high pressure centered over
Pennsylvania and New York will slowly push east during the course of
today. This will enhance the newly started warm advective
pattern...one that will half to push temperatures today into the low
to mid 30s across the western counties. it will be chillier east of
Lake Ontario where the mercury is expected to remain a few degrees
below freezing. These temperatures will feel even higher for most
areas as we can anticipate at least partial sunshine.

Monday night will be problem free...as the large area of high
pressure will slip off the East coast while a supporting broad high
amplitude ridge will ease across all of the Great Lakes. It will not
be as cold as recent nights...as mins tonight will range from the
teens east of Lake Ontario to the mid 20s most elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A Rocky Mountain lee side low will evolve Monday and deepen
across the Plains Tuesday. This deepening surface low combined
with a departing surface high will create a tightening pressure
gradient, with a warm conveyor belt of moisture bringing moderate
precipitation to our region by Tuesday night.

While Tuesday could feature light isentropic precipitation of
rain or snow across our region (especially to the north) the
main story will be the rainfall and the moderating
temperatures. This will include temperatures that will reach
into the lower 50s on Tuesday...a solid 5 degrees higher than
earlier forecasts.

Will use a non diurnal temperature trace for Tuesday night with
steady southerly flow increasing evening temperatures through
the night for WNY, though delayed a few hours for the eastern
Lake Ontario region. This could push downslope areas near Lake
Erie into the upper 40s by dawn Wednesday morning. Continued
southerly flow will push these temperatures well into the 50s
Wednesday, with a 60 degree reading possible within the
downslope Genesee Valley where precipitation through the day is
also expected somewhat lighter.

Upper level diffluence ahead of the upper level low combined with
convergence on the nose of a 50 to 55 knot LLJ will bring broad scale
synoptic lift, with rain spreading over the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. P-type will be plain rain within the deep
southerly flow of Gulf moisture. A soaking rain will persist 12
hours or more Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Models do display
some MUCAPE pushing into the region ahead of the upper level trough
Wednesday, but will opt to not include thunder with this package...
with the better instability remaining to our south. A dry slot
will push into the Genesee Valley mid-day Wednesday and this will
diminish the precipitation here, with the steady rain exiting to
the east, and more showery type rainfall under the upper level low
entering WNY later in the day.

This upper level low will track across the region Wednesday night
with additional rain showers. The surface cold front does not cross
our region until later Wednesday night, with precipitation changing
to snow not until late Wednesday night across the higher terrain of
SW NYS, and Thursday morning for the lower elevations of WNY...and
through the afternoon Thursday across the Finger Lakes and eastern
Lake Ontario region.

All told QPF has trended slightly higher within the ensemble
guidance as well as the deterministic models. A general quarter to
half an inch is forecasted for the Chautauqua downslope strip along
Lake Erie from Dunkirk to Buffalo, and across the northern Niagara
Frontier and Genesee Valley, while a half to one inch of rain is
forecasted for the Southern Tier and the eastern Lake Ontario
region. A TROWEL signature Wednesday afternoon and evening extending
into the Eastern Lake Ontario region may enhance rainfall with just
over an inch of rain possible.

The combination of rain and warm temperatures will bring a heighten
risk for flooding. Leading the way will be ice jam flooding. Last
week the creeks and rivers began to display breaking and shifting
ice, with these jams locked up through the cold weekend and start to
the week. As thawing degree hours climb past 500 for the lower
elevations of WNY we could start to see these ice jams developing
again, that with rising water levels from snowmelt and rainfall
could produce ice jam flooding. Poor drainage flooding will also be
possible with this system. Areas of most concern will be the creeks
and rivers of WNY, while slightly cooler and a deeper, fresh
snowpack for Oswego and the North Country will limit the flooding
threat with this event. However this rain will only worsen the snow
load on structures still under deep snow across Oswego and Lewis
counties. Will continue to mention this flooding threat in the HWO
product.

Lastly, it will be windy with this system. The core of the LLJ will
follow the greater upper level height falls with the upper level
trough...placing the stronger winds just to our south. Though a
strong deep surface low will be tracking to our west (typical high
wind track) we are looking for winds to gust from the southerly
direction Wednesday to 30 to 40 mph with the hill tops fairing the
best for strongest winds. Southwest to west winds behind the trough
and cold front Wednesday night and into Thursday will gust 30 to 40
mph, with the strongest winds likely downwind of Lake Erie.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong low pressure system will pull away from Quebec and northern
New England Thursday night to the Canadian Maritimes through
Saturday. Reinforcing shortwave energy concurrently moving southeast
from Hudson Bay will effectively keep the broad longwave troughing
pattern in place across the Great Lakes during this period. Sfc
temperatures will average near to slightly below normal for early
March, while aloft temps and moisture levels will be marginal enough
within a west-northwesterly flow for a few additional lake
enhanced/upslope snow showers downwind of the lakes. Coverage and
intensity should diminish through Friday with modest WAA occurring
in the mid-levels.

A highly amplified pattern will then be in place across North
America through the remainder of the weekend. Chances for showers
increase across the region again Friday night into Saturday as a
progressive shortwave races east across the Ohio Valley, then again
on Sunday as a cold front and weak wave of sfc low pressure move
southeast across the Upper Great Lakes. High uncertainty in the
track and timing of these features, as well as the low potential for
a few lake enhanced showers in between, so PoPs remain under 40%
until the details come into better focus. Temps should support snow
as the dominant ptype, though can't rule out some rain mixing in at
times.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake induced strato-cu through the initial daylight hours will result
in cigs of 1500-3500 feet over the western counties...while mainly
clear skies will be found at KART and KGTB.

As we push through today...high pressure exiting the region will
support fair VFR weather. These conditions will persist through
Monday night.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with rain. Windy.
Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR...Rain changing to snow. Breezy.
Thursday...MVFR with localized IFR in lake effect snow southeast of
the Lakes.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of snow showers downwind of the
lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle south to southwest breezes will be found over the region
through the upcoming night, as a large area of high pressure will
work off the Mid Atlantic coast. Small Craft headlines are not
expected again until sometime mid week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A system will track to the west of the area Wednesday, and this will
bring us much warmer weather and rain that will total a quarter
to three quarters of an inch. The combination of the snowmelt
and rainfall from the passing system will support higher flows
on the creeks and rivers... not only bringing a concern for
general flooding on area tributaries...but allowing ice to break
up and potentially result in localized ice jam flooding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH
HYDROLOGY...EAJ/RSH/Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
928 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-031430-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
928 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The combination of run-off from melting snow and expected rainfall
may result in flooding in the Tuesday night through Thursday
timeframe. The greatest risk for flooding will be due to ice jams,
but general river or creek flooding is also possible. There is still
uncertainty in rainfall amounts and how warm it will get with the
system.

The greatest risk of ice jam flooding will be on the Buffalo area
creeks and Cattaraugus Creek, but ice jams may develop in other
locations as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-031430-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
928 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-031430-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
928 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf