Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The area remains in a marginal risk for severe weather tonight with
CAMS suggesting that the Upper Valley and Ranchlands may get brushed
by a few transiting storms. A cold front analyzed over the RG
Plains may provide a surface based trigger under destabilized mid
level flow. Farther toward the southeast (Lower Valley), the
sounding shows a capped environment, though plenty of available
energy exists in the mid levels. For now, convection over South
Central Texas has behaved, but we will monitor for development
later this evening and overnight. With the models appearing to
stall out the front short of the CWA, another round of convection
will be possible Wednesday afternoon, initiating just north of the
CWA and moving east. We could see some of those storms get better
organized and push south later Wednesday. For now, the RGV Plains
and Ranchlands are in a day two marginal outlook area. Lows in
the mid 70s, highs in the mid 90s. A high rip risk will continue
tonight through Wednesday but may lower to moderate Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Key Messages:

* Medium to likely (40-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  throughout Thursday and Thursday night.

* Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Deep South Texas
  and the Rio Grande Valley within a general risk for thunderstorms
  on Thursday.

* Although confidence is low, there is a possibility for strong
  and/or severe thunderstorms Thursday and/or Thursday night. In
  this scenario, main threats would be strong wind gusts, hail,
  cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

The long term starts off wet with a frontal boundary draped across
the area, generating a medium to likely (40-70%) chance of showers
and thunderstorms across all of Deep South Texas throughout Thursday
and Thursday night, with the highest chances across the Rio Grande
Valley. Flow aloft will be mostly zonal, but with a slight
southwesterly component ahead of a shortwave trough moving eastward
through northern Mexico toward southern Texas. SPC has placed Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley within a general risk for
thunderstorms on Thursday. Although confidence is low at this time,
there is a chance of strong, perhaps severe, thunderstorms on
Thursday and/or Thursday night as the mid-level impulse moves
eastward. The GFS and NAM are in rough agreement of this scenario
playing out Thursday evening into Thursday night, but there remains
disagreement amongst models as a whole in the southward extent,
timing and strength of the convection. That being said, there
remains the potential for strong gusts, hail, cloud to ground
lightning and heavy rain. Either way, the consensus is higher that
by Friday morning, the shortwave will be offshore and northerly
winds in its wake will drive the front southward, bringing
probabilities of showers and thunderstorms from a low to medium (20-
40%) chance Friday morning to less than a 15% chance going into
Friday afternoon. Between Thursday morning and early Friday
afternoon, our forecast calls anywhere from three quarters to half
an inch of rain across the County Warning Area (CWA). Yet, higher
percentile NBM guidance indicates that there is the potential of
some locations receiving 1-2 inches within heavier downpours.

Following, flow at mid/upper levels gradually becomes northwesterly
as ridging builds across Deep South Texas, resulting in dry
conditions for the remainder of the long term. High pressure is
expected to maintain control across the Southern Plains with
northerly to northeasterly winds into Sunday, becoming southeasterly
to southerly for Monday and Tuesday as the high moves into the Gulf.

Highs in the 80s are expected Thursday through Sunday and slightly
below average beginning Friday. Return flow will warm temperatures
from upper 80s to low 90s on Monday to mostly 90s on Tuesday with
Rio Grande Plains possibly hitting upper 90s. Lows in the 60s and
70s Thursday night drop to mainly 60s Friday night through Sunday
night before warming back to 60s Monday night. A few locations in
the Northern Ranchlands may minimize in the upper 50s Sunday night
as temperatures could be 10 degrees, or cooler, below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

MVFR to VFR will affect the aerodromes through the next 24 hours.
Light winds with mostly cloudy skies are anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night...Winds should ease up this evening
and we plan to let the small craft advisory expire at 6 PM in favor
of exercise caution conditions tonight. Winds will weaken through
Wednesday before shifting/backing toward the east ahead of a
potential cold front. On and off isolated to scattered convection
will be possible through Wednesday night.

Thursday through Tuesday...Gentle to moderate northerly to
northeasterly winds and moderate (3- 5 feet) seas are expected
Thursday into Sunday. There is a moderate to likely (50-80%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout Thursday and
Thursday night. A few storms may be strong and/or severe with the
potential for strong wind gusts, hail, cloud to ground lightning
and heavy rain. Chances of showers and thunderstorms diminish
throughout Friday morning and remain mostly dry for the rest of
the period. Gentle to moderate winds turn southeasterly to
southerly on Monday into Tuesday along with slight (1-2 feet)
seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  85  71  84 /  20  70  70  50
HARLINGEN               73  87  69  85 /  20  70  60  30
MCALLEN                 77  89  71  87 /  20  70  70  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  88  70  86 /  30  70  70  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  82  73  80 /  20  70  70  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  84  70  82 /  20  70  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
819 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

TXZ252-070145-
Starr TX-
819 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN STARR COUNTY
THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 819 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Roma High School, or over Roma, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Rosita, Roma Creek, Starr County Memorial Hospital, Fronton, Roma
High School, Rio Grande City, Los Alvarez, Rio Grande City--roma,
Garceno, and Rio Grande City Library.

This includes US Highway 83 between mile markers 798 and 820.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
Deep South Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2647 9909 2654 9909 2652 9879 2637 9881
      2637 9882 2636 9884 2637 9886 2635 9890
      2637 9890 2638 9892 2639 9893 2637 9893
      2637 9895 2640 9896 2639 9901 2641 9902
      2641 9904 2640 9906 2640 9908 2642 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 275DEG 27KT 2644 9902

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Caceres

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
855 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

TXZ248-070215-
Zapata TX-
855 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY
THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 855 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Thompsonville, or 19 miles north of Bustamante,
moving northeast at 85 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Zapata
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
Deep South Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2727 9932 2727 9896 2724 9895 2711 9925
      2726 9937 2728 9934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 244DEG 74KT 2728 9910

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Caceres

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1025 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

TXZ249-070415-
Jim Hogg TX-
1025 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JIM HOGG COUNTY
THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...

At 1025 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
South Fork Estates, or near Hebbronville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hebbronville, Las Lomitas, Gruy Stadium, Hebbronville Border Patrol
Station, Jim Hogg County Airport, Hebbronville High School, and South
Fork Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
Deep South Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2734 9855 2734 9852 2727 9852 2723 9886
      2727 9886 2727 9880 2735 9880 2736 9863
      2734 9862 2734 9859 2736 9859 2736 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 248DEG 20KT 2730 9878

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

60-BE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1041 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Hail             5 W Roma                26.43N 99.08W
05/06/2025  M1.50 Inch       Starr              TX   Public

            Social media report of 1.5 inch in Fronton
            TX. Time estimated by radar.

&&

BE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1250 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

TXZ248>251-351-451-070700-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Coastal Kenedy-Kenedy Island-
Including the cities of Zapata, Hebbronville, Falfurrias,
and Sarita
1250 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO...

National Weather Service Doppler radar in Brownsville is tracking
a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms developing in Nuevo
Leon in neighboring Mexico. These thunderstorms are currently
located about 40 miles west of San Ygnacio in Zapata County, and
about 50 miles west-northwest of the city of Zapata in Zapata
County. Movement of these thunderstorms is to the east at around
35 miles per hour.

If these thunderstorms maintain their current track and intensity,
Zapata County could experience large hail and damaging winds
within the next two hours. These thunderstorms may then affect Jim
Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties during the next few hours.

Residents in Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties are
advised to monitor this developing situation, and be prepared to
act should severe thunderstorm warnings be issued for their area.

TOMASELLI