Gale Warning 8, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
544 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

 * Near record to record-breaking heat continues with mid to upper
   80s across inland Deep South Texas today and Sunday.

 * Scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms along a
   strong cold front, moving through late night Sunday into early
   Monday morning, briefly increases chance of rain to a medium
   to likely (50-70%) chance Monday morning.

 * Windy conditions and drier air behind the front may result in a
   Wind Advisory along the immediate Gulf coast as well as a Fire
   Danger Statement across the northern ranchlands and portions of
   the RGV on Monday.

 * Hazardous beach and marine conditions are likely Monday into
   Tuesday.

 * Much cooler air arrives Monday through Tuesday night, bringing
   below average temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

The weather pattern over the next 7 days will feature quite a few
focuses. A mid to upper level high pressure over the Gulf will
continue to maintain ridging aloft through Sunday ahead of a cold
front, followed by zonal flow into the later parts of next week
before ridging takes back over again next weekend. As subsidence
aloft continues, dry conditions prevail through Sunday along with
breezy conditions, especially along and east of US-281/I-69 C,
where sustained south-southeasterly winds of around 15-20 mph,
gusting to 25-30 mph, are expected from around midday into the
evening or early nighttime hours. This is in response to a
tightened pressure gradient from a surface high pressure over the
Gulf and lowering heights to the west ahead of an advancing area
of low pressure. Fortunately, as breezy conditions continue,
chances of fog are significantly reduced tonight though calmer
winds and enhanced moisture may result in patchy to areas of fog
Sunday night near the coast in the hours leading up to the front's
arrival. As the south-southeasterly winds continue to pump warm
air into the region, near record to record-breaking temperatures
continue, with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s today and
Sunday, falling to the 60s tonight, which is about 10-15 degrees
F above average for this time of year.

As the front passes through late Sunday night into early Monday
morning, scattered showers, and possibly some isolated
thunderstorms, are expected, increasing chances of rain from
north to south to as much as a medium to likely (40-70%) chance
during this timeframe. As the front moves through, windy
conditions are anticipated across the region, continuing through
the afternoon hours, with northerly winds of around 15-25 mph,
gusting to 30-35 mph or higher, with the higher end of this range
likely to the east of US-281/I-69 C. Closer to and along the
immediate Gulf coast, northerly winds of 25-30 mph, gusting to
35-40 mph or higher, are expected, which could result in a Wind
Advisory for the barrier islands, potentially further inland into
Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties Monday morning and afternoon.
PoPs decrease to less than 10% by Monday evening and winds
subside mainly west of US-281/I-69 C throughout the later
afternoon and early evening hours. However, breezy to windy
conditions continue further east into Monday night, especially
along the immediate coast, where gusts up to 30 mph remain
possible, with breezy conditions continuing into Tuesday.

In wake of the cold front, much drier air will advect southward
from a surface high pressure over the Southern Plains via the
gusty northerly winds, which is likely to lead to an elevated
concern for fire weather conditions on Monday. Please the Fire
Weather section below for more details. Additionally, cold air
advection will lead to much cooler temperatures, with morning lows
in the upper 40s across the northern ranchlands and 50s across
the RGV, rising only to the upper 50s across the northern
ranchlands and to the 60s across most of the RGV on Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. Lows Monday night drop to the 40s, falling to
the 30s and 40s Tuesday night, which is 10-15 F below average.
Following, return flow sets up as surface high pressure settles
over the northern Gulf, shifting winds back out of the southeast
throughout Wednesday, persisting into the remainder of the
forecast. Temperatures rise above average again, possibly by next
Thursday, with 80s next weekend.

Last but not least, coastal impacts are expected from the upcoming
cold front. As a result of the strong northerly winds, high surf is
expected, with waves of 6 feet or greater from Monday morning into
Tuesday, with a High Surf Advisory is likely. While a low risk of
rip currents continues through Sunday afternoon, a high risk of
rip currents is likely on Monday and Tuesday, possibly into
Wednesday, following the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period at all
TAF sites. South-southeasterly winds 10-15 kt persist overnight
tonight, with winds gusting 20-25 kt most of the day on Sunday.
Winds decrease to 10-15 kt by late afternoon towards the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Gentle to moderate south-southeasterly winds are anticipated to
become moderate to fresh this afternoon, continuing into Sunday
morning before subsiding back to gentle to moderate Sunday
evening along with slight to moderate (3-4 ft) seas and dry
conditions. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are possible
this afternoon and overnight tonight. A strong cold front arrives
late Sunday night and early morning Monday morning, bringing a
medium to likely (50-70%) chance of rain as scattered showers and
possibly isolated thunderstorms pass from north to south through
the Lower Texas coastal waters. Chances of rain drop to a less
than 10% by Monday evening, but near-gale to gale force winds and
gale force gusts are likely in wake of the front and a Gale Watch
goes into effect early Monday morning through Monday afternoon.
Rough to very rough seas are likely on Monday, continuing, but
improving, throughout Monday night into Tuesday. Gentle to
moderate northeasterly winds are expected to return overnight
Tuesday, becoming southeasterly throughout Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

As the cold front passes through from north to south through Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late Sunday and early Monday
morning, much drier will funnel into the region via strong northerly
winds. The combination of 20 foot winds of around 15-25 mph,
gusting to as high as 30-35 mph, or higher, and relative humidity
values as low as 15-25% west of US-281/I-69 C and 25-30% to the
east (into possibly the coastal areas), is expected to lead to
fire weather conditions on Monday. Fire Danger Statement criteria
is likely to be met for Jim Hogg, Brooks and Hidalgo counties as
well as inland portions of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties,
possibly including Starr County and coastal portions of Cameron,
Willacy and Kenedy counties Monday morning through the afternoon
or early evening hours. Additionally, A Red Flag Warning may not
be completely ruled out and will monitor closely to see if
guidance and expectations trend towards higher wind gusts and
lower relative humidity values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             68  85  57  66 /   0   0  40  50
HARLINGEN               65  86  53  64 /   0   0  50  30
MCALLEN                 69  89  55  62 /   0   0  60  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         66  89  51  59 /   0   0  60  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      71  78  61  66 /   0   0  50  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     67  83  56  67 /   0   0  50  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...88-Chai