Gale Warning 12, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

713 
WHUS71 KBOX 012105
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
405 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

ANZ250-251-021015-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0012.250301T2200Z-250302T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.UP.Y.0005.250302T0600Z-250302T1800Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
405 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts 
  up to 35 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet expected. For the Freezing 
  Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray 
  expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Massachusetts Bay and 
  Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 1 AM EST Sunday. For the 
  Freezing Spray Advisory, from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for ice accumulation on their vessel and
consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
conditions. During freezing spray conditions, the U.S. Coast
Guard advises mariners to check and ensure all life-saving
devices remain free of ice. 

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254-020600-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0012.250301T2200Z-250302T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
405 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-020600-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0012.250301T2200Z-250302T0600Z/
Boston Harbor-
405 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 
  around 2 feet expected.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-020600-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0012.250301T2200Z-250302T0600Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
405 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-021015-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-250302T1800Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
405 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-021015-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-250302T1800Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
405 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-021015-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-250302T1800Z/
Narragansett Bay-
405 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-021015-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-250302T1800Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
405 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

615 
WHUS71 KBOX 020619
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
119 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

ANZ250-021800-
/O.EXP.KBOX.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-250302T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0013.250302T0619Z-250302T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.UP.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250302T1800Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
119 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds around 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and seas 5 to 7 feet. For the Freezing Spray 
  Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 7 AM EST this morning. For 
  the Freezing Spray Advisory, until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for ice accumulation on their vessel and
consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
conditions. During freezing spray conditions, the U.S. Coast
Guard advises mariners to check and ensure all life-saving
devices remain free of ice. 

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-022100-
/O.EXP.KBOX.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-250302T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-250303T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.UP.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250302T1800Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
119 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 
  kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet. For the 
  Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing 
  spray.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 9 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Conditions will be hazardous 
  to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for ice accumulation on their vessel and
consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
conditions. During freezing spray conditions, the U.S. Coast
Guard advises mariners to check and ensure all life-saving
devices remain free of ice. 

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-022100-
/O.EXP.KBOX.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-250302T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-250303T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
119 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and 
  Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas 
  Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, 
  Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending 
  out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-022100-
/O.EXP.KBOX.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-250302T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-250303T0200Z/
Boston Harbor-
119 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves around 2 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-022100-
/O.EXA.KBOX.UP.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250302T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-250303T0200Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
119 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation 
  of freezing spray. For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest 
  winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...For the Freezing Spray Advisory, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 9 PM EST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Conditions will be hazardous 
  to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for ice accumulation on their vessel and
consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
conditions. During freezing spray conditions, the U.S. Coast
Guard advises mariners to check and ensure all life-saving
devices remain free of ice. 

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-022100-
/O.EXA.KBOX.UP.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250302T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-250303T0200Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
119 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation 
  of freezing spray. For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest 
  winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...For the Freezing Spray Advisory, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 9 PM EST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Conditions will be hazardous 
  to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for ice accumulation on their vessel and
consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
conditions. During freezing spray conditions, the U.S. Coast
Guard advises mariners to check and ensure all life-saving
devices remain free of ice. 

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-022100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-250303T0200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
119 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-022100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-250302T2300Z/
Narragansett Bay-
119 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1248 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Briefly unseasonably mild temperatures works into the region through
lunch time Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. This front may
bring a few brief rain showers...possibly in the form of snow
showers across the high terrain. Windy and much colder weather
returns later Saturday and especially Saturday night. A quick
blast of cold winter weather Sunday into Monday, though
sensible weather is rather quiet due to high pressure. A return to
mild and spring-like temperatures through Thursday, but a robust
system Wednesday into Thursday bring the next chance of widespread
precipitation to southern New England. A cold front will cross the
region late Thursday and return temperatures to near seasonable highs
by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM update...

Low pres tracking across the Gt Lakes overnight with best
moisture and forcing remaining well to the north. Some light
returns on radar moving into western MA but it is quite dry as
shown by dewpoints in the teens. In addition soundings show
fairly deep layer of dry air in the low levels which persists
overnight so not expecting much more than a few snow showers
across western MA. Temps rise overnight as winds turn southerly
with most locations above freezing by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Unseasonably mild Sat with early afternoon highs well into the 50s
* A few brief rain showers Sat perhaps wet snow showers high terrain
* Turning windy & much colder late Sat and especially Sat night
* Surge of WNW wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph late Sat/Sat evening
* Lows Sat night in the teens with wind chills 5 below to 10 above

Details...

Saturday and Saturday night...

The Alberta Clipper will continue to track east across Quebec on
Sat. This will allow a strong cold front to approach us from the
west. Ahead of this front...expect a mixture of sun and clouds and
gusty southwest winds to develop. 925T are on the order of +4C to
+6C ahead of this front...which should allow highs to reach well
into the 50s across much of the region. Perhaps an outside shot that
someone reaches 60 too by lunch time.

These mild temps will be short-lived as a strong cold front
approaches from the west. While much of Sat will be
dry...environment is favorable for a few brief showers ahead of the
cold front. There is a strong shortwave, low level convergence along
with a ribbon of moisture & some MUCape. Normally we would be
concerned with the risk for a few snow squalls...but given boundary
layer is so warm...Ptype will mainly be liquid outside of the high
terrain where a few snow showers will be possible.

The main story will be the rapid drop in temps later Sat afternoon
and night behind this strong cold front. 925T drop close to 25C
inside 18 hours which you do not see too often across our region. In
response...temps in the 50s around lunch time will quickly fall into
the upper 20s and 30s by early evening behind the front. In
addition...a very strong pressure rise couplet and a quick drop in
temps should allow for winds to overachieve. A surge of WNW wind
gusts of 35-50 mph late Sat/Sat evening. Later shifts may need to
consider a Wind Advisory...although the strongest wind speeds should
be short-lived.

Much colder air will continue to be ushered into the region Sat
night. 850T dropping to between -16C and -18C by daybreak will allow
for overnight low temps to bottom out in the teens Sat night. The
winds will result in wind chill values dropping to between 5 below
and 10 above...so quite a change from what is on tap for the first
half of Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Brief return to a winter chill on Sunday, followed by a warming
  trend with the warmest days Tuesday into possibly Thursday. Will
  have cooling temperatures behind a midweek system, which may bring
  widespread rain and gusty winds. Though, exact details are still
  uncertain.

Big Picture:

An amplified mid-level trough is located across the eastern CONUS by
Sunday, which brings another burst of winter cold to the northeast
CONUS. This set up will be short-lived with the trough shifting east
and mid-level ridging builds in from the west, expect the northwest
flow to return to southwest, leading to a resurgence of mild air for
Tuesday through Thursday, and then trending cooler late next week.
Will have quiet conditions through Tuesday, come Wednesday and
Thursday we will watch the potential of widespread rain and gusty
winds.

Temperatures:

Big swing in temperatures heading into Sunday with colder airmass
advecting into southern New England. 925mb temperatures only recover
to -10C at the coast and -15C across the interior, this will result
in maximum temperatures in the low-20s across the interior while
near the coast, the high could push 30F. Sunday night into Monday
morning still cold, lows in the single digits and teens. Monday
isn't too much warmer, perhaps by a few degrees, upper 20s in the
interior and low to middle 30s near the coast. This will be followed
by another chilly night in the teens to low 20s.

Will have much warmer conditions Tuesday through Thursday, WAA
allows for 925mb temperatures to jump to near 0C on Tuesday, +8C to
+10C for both Wednesday and Thursday. Will say, Thursday could be a
wild card depending if the cold front arrives after max daytime
heating. As of now, the cold front passage looks to be later in the
day. This boils down to highs in the low to middle 40s on Tuesday,
then middle and upper 50s on Wednesday and Thursday. While a low
probability, 60F is not out of the question for eastern MA away from
the influence of the ocean and northern RI. In terms of nightly lows
those are on track to be above normal Tuesday and Wednesday night
with a return to colder temperatures Thursday night, following the
cold frontal passage.

Precipitation:

Dry weather prevails Sunday into Tuesday, next round of appreciable
precipitation is slated for Wednesday/Thursday. A bit of uncertainty
with the exact timing, stay tuned for those details, but this is a
large system, with a strong low pressure centered across the central
CONUS, out ahead there is a strong LLJ and will transport high PWATs
from the Gulf to the northeast. Forecast PWATs nearing 1.2" to 1.5"
which are 2-4 standard deviations above climatology. Viewing this on
the ensemble situational awareness table, between 12z Wed to 18z Thu
the PWATs are 97 to 99.5 percent of climatology. As this is 5-6 days
it is good to look at this through a probabilistically through DESI,
for 0.5" or greater from Wed to Fri morning are between 70 to 80
percent. When you increases to 1.0" or greater, drops 25 to 50
percent. Additionally, we can look at the 25th and 75th percentile
to give us a range of possibilities and shows where there is
uncertainty if the spread between the two is large. DESI 25th
percentile range is 0.4" to 0.6", while the 75th percentile ranges
1.0" to 1.3". As for any flooding concerns, the Ensemble River
Forecasts doesn't show any areas rivers reaching flood stage, though
will monitor this piece of guidance as we near the event.

Wind:

Breezy northwesterly winds on Sunday with CAA. Fast forward to our
next system, another aspect is the potential for stronger gusts, as
models show a robust LLJ with the max of the jet around 850mb
arriving late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Some
agreement amongst guidance winds aloft are 60 to 80 knots out of the
south. Tough to say at this point how much mixes down to the
surface, but a good rule of thumb during a strong low level
inversion is we'd mix down 50% of the 925mb winds. Winds at 925mb
across the interior range 30 to 50 knots, while along and east of
the I-95 corridor are 50 to 70 knots. Could assume gusts up to 25
knots in the interior and 35 knots by the coast is a good first
assumption, but given there are 5-6 days out there is pounds of
time for things to change.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Through 12z...

VFR, except for a few hours of vsbys below 3SM -SN across NW MA.
S wind gusts to 20-25 kt developing toward 12z, especially along
the south coast. Areas of LLWS as winds at 2000ft increase to
35-40 kt from the SW.

Today...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR with a few spot showers in the morning, then brief
showers this afternoon assocd with a strong cold front moving
into the region. May be cold enough for a few snow showers in
the Berkshires after the fropa. Gusty S-SW winds this morning,
up to 30 kt SE MA and Cape/Islands with LLWS, then wind shift
to WNW with fropa, 18-20z western half New Eng and 20-23z
eastern half. Wind gusts to 40 kt possible with the fropa
especially higher elevations, and 30-35 kt elsewhere.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. NW wind gusts 25-35 kt in the evening, possibly up to 40 kt
higher elevations, slowly diminishing after midnight.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR. NW gusts to 25 kt in the morning, diminishing later in the
afternoon.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. Could be a few hours of marginal
LLWS conditions around 12z. S-SW gusts to 25 kt this morning
with wind shift to WNW around 22z with gusts to 30-35 kt.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. Gusty S winds this morning. Wind
shift to NW around 20z with gusts to 30 kt.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 35 kt.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday through Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA.

Wednesday: Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Saturday night...High Confidence.

A ridge of high builds into the region this evening...allowing small
craft wind gusts to quickly to diminish but small craft seas will
persist across the outer-waters. Low pressure then working across
Quebec and into northern New England will allow winds to become S
after midnight with gusts of 20-30 knots developing after midnight.
Therefore...we continued the small craft headlines for the rapid
return of the winds. Later Sat and Sat evening a surge of WNW wind
gusts of 25-35 knots with a few gusts near 40 knots follows the
passage of a strong cold front. Strongest of those winds will be
across the northern waters...where we have hoisted a Gale Watch.
Light freezing spray is expected to develop Sat night as much colder
air works into the region.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Freezing spray.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Freezing spray.

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this
     afternoon for ANZ230.
     Gale Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ250-
     251-254.
     Gale Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for ANZ250-
     251-254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Dooley
NEAR TERM...KJC/Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...KJC/Dooley/Nash
MARINE...Frank/Dooley