Coastal Flood Statement 7, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

139 
WHUS41 KBOX 030729
CFWBOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
229 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024-031600-
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.S.0007.251203T1200Z-251203T1600Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
229 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM
EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways (2.7 to 12.7 feet Mean Lower Low Water).

* WHERE...Eastern Essex MA, Suffolk MA, Eastern Norfolk MA, 
  Eastern Plymouth MA, Barnstable MA, Dukes MA and Nantucket MA 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 11 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads remain passable. Low lying areas and roads 
  near Nantucket Harbor, including Easy Street, may experience 
  pockets of shallow flooding less than one foot deep.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Gloucester Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 13.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.9 ft, Moderate 3.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM  11.0/11.5   1.4/ 1.9   0.4/ 0.9    5-6      None    
 03/10 PM   9.3/ 9.8  -0.3/ 0.2   0.2/ 0.7    3-4      None    
 04/10 AM  11.2/11.7   1.6/ 2.0   0.2/ 0.7     3       None    
 04/11 PM   8.5/ 9.0  -1.1/-0.7  -0.7/-0.2     4       None    
 05/11 AM  11.1/11.6   1.5/ 2.0  -0.2/ 0.2    2-3      None    
 05/11 PM   9.2/ 9.7  -0.5/ 0.0   0.0/ 0.5     2       None

Merrimack River near Newburyport MA
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.0 ft, Moderate 12.0 ft, Major 13.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 4.0 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM   9.9/10.4   0.4/ 0.9   0.4/ 0.9     4       None    
 03/10 PM   8.4/ 8.9  -1.1/-0.7   0.2/ 0.7    2-3      None    
 04/10 AM  10.1/10.6   0.6/ 1.1   0.2/ 0.7    2-3      None    
 04/11 PM   7.5/ 8.0  -2.0/-1.6  -0.8/-0.2     3       None    
 05/11 AM   9.9/10.4   0.4/ 0.9  -0.2/ 0.2     2       None    
 06/12 AM   8.2/ 8.7  -1.4/-0.9   0.0/ 0.5     2       None

Boston Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.5 ft, Moderate 14.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.2 ft, Moderate 3.7 ft, Major 4.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM  12.1/12.6   1.8/ 2.2   0.6/ 1.1     2       None    
 03/10 PM  10.1/10.6  -0.2/ 0.2   0.2/ 0.7     1       None    
 04/10 AM  12.0/12.5   1.7/ 2.2   0.2/ 0.7     2       None    
 04/10 PM   9.3/ 9.8  -1.1/-0.6  -0.7/-0.2     2       None    
 05/11 AM  11.8/12.3   1.5/ 2.0  -0.2/ 0.2     1       None    
 05/11 PM  10.0/10.5  -0.3/ 0.2   0.0/ 0.5     1       None

Revere
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.5 ft, Moderate 14.5 ft, Major 16.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.6 ft, Moderate 4.6 ft, Major 6.1 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM  11.5/12.0   1.6/ 2.0   0.4/ 0.9    1-2      None    
 03/10 PM   9.7/10.2  -0.2/ 0.2   0.1/ 0.6     1       None    
 04/10 AM  11.6/12.1   1.7/ 2.2   0.1/ 0.6    1-2      None    
 04/11 PM   9.0/ 9.5  -1.0/-0.5  -0.9/-0.4     2       None    
 05/11 AM  11.5/12.0   1.6/ 2.0  -0.3/ 0.2     1       None    
 05/11 PM   9.8/10.3  -0.2/ 0.3   0.0/ 0.5     1       None

Green Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 13.5 ft, Major 15.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.6 ft, Moderate 3.6 ft, Major 5.6 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM  11.4/11.9   1.5/ 2.0   0.6/ 1.1     4      Minor    
 03/10 PM   9.5/10.0  -0.5/ 0.0   0.2/ 0.7     3       None    
 04/10 AM  11.5/12.0   1.6/ 2.0   0.2/ 0.7    2-3     Minor    
 04/11 PM   8.9/ 9.4  -1.1/-0.6  -0.6/-0.1     3       None    
 05/11 AM  11.3/11.8   1.4/ 1.9  -0.2/ 0.2     2      Minor    
 05/11 PM   9.4/ 9.9  -0.6/-0.1   0.1/ 0.6     1       None

Scituate MA
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 13.5 ft, Major 15.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 3.8 ft, Major 5.8 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM  11.4/11.9   1.7/ 2.2   0.6/ 1.1    4-5     Minor    
 03/10 PM   9.4/ 9.9  -0.3/ 0.2   0.2/ 0.7    3-4      None    
 04/10 AM  11.4/11.9   1.7/ 2.2   0.2/ 0.7    2-3     Minor    
 04/11 PM   8.7/ 9.2  -1.1/-0.6  -0.7/-0.2    3-4      None    
 05/11 AM  11.2/11.7   1.5/ 2.0  -0.2/ 0.2     2       None    
 05/11 PM   9.5/10.0  -0.2/ 0.2   0.2/ 0.7    1-2      None

Buzzards Bay at Woods Hole
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 7.0 ft, Major 8.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 5.0 ft, Major 6.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/06 AM   3.0/ 3.5   1.0/ 1.5   0.2/ 0.7     3       None    
 03/07 PM   2.2/ 2.7   0.2/ 0.7   0.4/ 0.9     2       None    
 04/07 AM   2.8/ 3.4   0.9/ 1.4   0.0/ 0.5    2-3      None    
 04/07 PM   1.0/ 1.5  -1.1/-0.6  -0.9/-0.4    3-4      None    
 05/08 AM   2.7/ 3.2   0.8/ 1.3  -0.2/ 0.2    1-2      None    
 05/08 PM   1.7/ 2.2  -0.3/ 0.2  -0.2/ 0.3    1-2      None

Chatham MA - East Coast
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.0 ft, Moderate 11.5 ft, Major 13.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 3.8 ft, Moderate 6.3 ft, Major 7.8 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/10 AM   6.9/ 7.4   1.7/ 2.2   0.6/ 1.1    5-6      None    
 03/10 PM   5.2/ 5.7   0.0/ 0.5   0.2/ 0.7     4       None    
 04/11 AM   6.6/ 7.1   1.4/ 1.9   0.1/ 0.6    3-4      None    
 04/11 PM   4.7/ 5.2  -0.5/ 0.0  -0.3/ 0.2    4-5      None    
 05/11 AM   6.4/ 6.9   1.2/ 1.7  -0.2/ 0.2     3       None    
 06/12 AM   5.2/ 5.7   0.1/ 0.6   0.1/ 0.6     2       None

Chatham - South side
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.0 ft, Moderate 10.5 ft, Major 11.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 4.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 7.0 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/10 AM   5.7/ 6.2   1.3/ 1.8   0.8/ 1.3    4-5      None    
 03/11 PM   3.7/ 4.2  -0.8/-0.2   0.2/ 0.7     3       None    
 04/11 AM   5.4/ 5.9   0.9/ 1.4   0.2/ 0.7     3       None    
 05/12 AM   3.1/ 3.6  -1.5/-1.0  -0.7/-0.2     4       None    
 05/12 PM   5.1/ 5.6   0.6/ 1.1  -0.2/ 0.2    2-3      None

Hyannis Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 6.5 ft, Major 8.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.2 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 4.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/10 AM   4.9/ 5.4   1.1/ 1.6   0.5/ 1.0    2-3     Minor    
 03/11 PM   3.2/ 3.7  -0.7/-0.2   0.1/ 0.6     2       None    
 04/11 AM   4.5/ 5.0   0.7/ 1.1   0.0/ 0.5    2-3      None    
 05/12 AM   2.2/ 2.7  -1.6/-1.1  -0.9/-0.4     3       None    
 05/12 PM   4.4/ 4.9   0.6/ 1.1  -0.2/ 0.2     2       None    
 06/12 AM   3.2/ 3.7  -0.7/-0.2   0.1/ 0.6     1       None

Provincetown Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 13.0 ft, Moderate 14.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.9 ft, Moderate 3.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM  11.9/12.4   1.8/ 2.2   0.6/ 1.1    5-6      None    
 03/10 PM  10.0/10.5  -0.2/ 0.3   0.2/ 0.7    3-4      None    
 04/10 AM  11.8/12.3   1.7/ 2.2   0.2/ 0.7     3       None    
 04/11 PM   9.4/ 9.9  -0.8/-0.2  -0.5/ 0.0    5-6      None    
 05/11 AM  11.5/12.0   1.4/ 1.9  -0.2/ 0.2    3-4      None    
 05/11 PM   9.7/10.2  -0.5/ 0.0   0.1/ 0.6     2       None

Dennis - Sesuit Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 13.0 ft, Moderate 14.5 ft, Major 16.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.5 ft, Moderate 4.0 ft, Major 5.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM  12.5/13.0   2.0/ 2.5   0.8/ 1.3    3-4      None    
 03/10 PM  10.4/10.9  -0.2/ 0.3   0.2/ 0.7     2       None    
 04/10 AM  12.6/13.1   2.1/ 2.6   0.4/ 0.9    2-3      None    
 04/11 PM  10.3/10.8  -0.2/ 0.2   0.0/ 0.5    3-4      None    
 05/11 AM  12.2/12.7   1.7/ 2.2  -0.2/ 0.2     2       None    
 05/11 PM  10.5/11.0   0.0/ 0.5   0.2/ 0.7    1-2      None

Sandwich Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.0 ft, Moderate 14.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 3.7 ft, Major 4.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM  10.8/11.3   0.5/ 1.0   0.8/ 1.3     3       None    
 03/09 PM   8.7/ 9.2  -1.7/-1.2   0.4/ 0.9     2       None    
 04/10 AM  10.7/11.2   0.4/ 0.9   0.2/ 0.8    2-3      None    
 04/10 PM   8.4/ 8.9  -2.0/-1.5  -0.2/ 0.2     3       None    
 05/11 AM  10.5/11.0   0.2/ 0.7  -0.2/ 0.3     2       None    
 05/11 PM   8.9/ 9.4  -1.5/-1.0   0.2/ 0.7     1       None

Wings Neck
MLLW Categories - Minor 6.5 ft, Moderate 9.0 ft, Major 11.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.1 ft, Moderate 4.6 ft, Major 7.1 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/06 AM   4.9/ 5.4   0.5/ 1.0  -0.2/ 0.3    2-3      None    
 03/06 PM   4.0/ 4.5  -0.3/ 0.2   0.4/ 0.9     1       None    
 04/07 AM   5.2/ 5.7   0.8/ 1.3   0.0/ 0.5    1-2      None    
 04/07 PM   3.0/ 3.5  -1.5/-1.0  -0.9/-0.4     3       None    
 05/08 AM   4.9/ 5.4   0.5/ 1.0  -0.3/ 0.2    1-2      None    
 05/08 PM   3.7/ 4.2  -0.7/-0.2  -0.2/ 0.2     1       None

Edgartown
MLLW Categories - Minor 4.0 ft, Moderate 5.0 ft, Major 7.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 4.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM   3.4/ 3.9   0.7/ 1.1   0.4/ 0.9    3-4      None    
 03/09 PM   2.0/ 2.5  -0.8/-0.2   0.2/ 0.8     2       None    
 04/09 AM   3.1/ 3.6   0.4/ 0.9   0.1/ 0.6     3       None    
 05/12 AM   1.2/ 1.7  -1.6/-1.1  -0.7/-0.2    3-4      None    
 05/11 AM   3.0/ 3.5   0.2/ 0.8  -0.2/ 0.3     2       None    
 06/12 AM   2.0/ 2.5  -0.8/-0.2   0.1/ 0.6     2       None

Vineyard Haven
MLLW Categories - Minor 4.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 7.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.5 ft, Moderate 4.0 ft, Major 5.0 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/09 AM   2.5/ 3.0   0.5/ 1.0   0.4/ 0.9     3       None    
 03/08 PM   1.8/ 2.2  -0.2/ 0.2   0.6/ 1.1     2       None    
 04/09 AM   2.2/ 2.7   0.2/ 0.7   0.2/ 0.7    2-3      None    
 04/11 PM   0.7/ 1.1  -1.4/-0.9  -1.0/-0.5     3       None    
 05/11 AM   2.2/ 2.7   0.2/ 0.7  -0.2/ 0.3    1-2      None    
 05/11 PM   1.7/ 2.2  -0.3/ 0.2   0.2/ 0.7     1       None

Nantucket Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 6.5 ft, Major 8.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.4 ft, Moderate 2.9 ft, Major 4.4 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/10 AM   4.7/ 5.2   1.2/ 1.7   0.6/ 1.1     5      Minor    
 03/11 PM   3.1/ 3.6  -0.6/-0.1   0.2/ 0.7     3       None    
 04/11 AM   4.4/ 4.9   0.8/ 1.3   0.1/ 0.6     4       None    
 05/12 AM   2.5/ 3.0  -1.1/-0.7  -0.5/ 0.0    4-5      None    
 05/12 PM   4.2/ 4.7   0.6/ 1.1  -0.2/ 0.2    2-3      None

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1125 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm will bring accumulating snow across interior southern
New England into tonight...particularly north of I-90 into the high
terrain where precipitation remains mainly snow. Mainly rain is
expected near I-95 and even for a time across the interior southern
New England south of I-90...before a transition back to snow occurs
later tonight. All precipitation should have come to an end by
daybreak Wednesday. Beyond that high pressure brings dry weather to
end the week except for a moisture starved front Thursday bringing a
few snow showers. Arctic airmass bring well below normal
temperatures Thursday night, Friday, and Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Winter Storm continues tonight across interior southern New
  England especially north of I-90 and the high terrain

* 1-2" per hour snowfall rates north of I-90 and especially near
  route 2 make for hazardous travel for the evening commute

* Mid level warm layer moving northward will result in Ptype
  transitioning to a period of rain south of I-90 even across the
  interior through the mid to late afternoon hours

* Narrow swath of sleet and freezing rain for a time into
  northern CT and possibly interior southern MA

* Mainly rain along the I-95 corridor into RI that should transition
  to a period of snow before ending toward daybreak

* Total snow accumulations of 6-10" in the highest terrain of
  northern MA...2-5" in the lower elevations of western/central
  MA...and mainly a dusting to 2" across CT/RI & eastern MA

Details...

This afternoon into tonight...

Low pressure will be intensifying as it moves off the mid Atlantic
coast and tracks just inside the Benchmark this afternoon into this
evening. Thermal profiles are initially cold enough for mainly snow
northwest of the I-84/I-495 interchange inland from the coastal
front into mid afternoon. However...given the lack of cold high
pressure across eastern Canada and the mid level centers tracking
northwest of the Benchmark will allow warmer mid-level air to move
northward. Therefore...an initial burst of snow through early
afternoon will change to mainly rain south of I-90 by mid-late
afternoon. A few inches of snow may occur in this region before the
transition to rain across southwest/south central MA perhaps into
far northern CT. There remains some uncertainty how far north this
mid level warm layer will reach before stalling out...but we are
thinking this will mainly stay south of the route 2 corridor and
possibly not make it much further north than I-90. As the mid level
low/s close off and result in strong mid level frontogenesis...we
may see 1-2 per hour snowfall rates this afternoon into early
evening where Ptype remains snow north of I-90 and especially
towards route 2. This will result in significant impact to the
evening commute north of I90 and especially near route 2 corridor.

There also may be a narrow area of sleet and freezing rain on the
edge of the mid level warmth...but should be fairly narrow
swath. We did expand the Winter Weather Advisory into northern
CT to account for this risk. We also may see that narrow band of
sleet and freezing rain into interior parts of southern MA.
Meanwhile...areas south of I-90 as well as along the I-95
should see moderate to heavy rain for the late day commute.

As the mid level low/s shift east of the region...lingering moisture
with temps cooling aloft should allow for many locations to
transition to snow before things wind down before daybreak
Wednesday. A coating to an inch of snow will be possible onto the I-
95 corridor with perhaps 2" into the lower elevations of interior
eastern MA. Further northwest in the lower elevations of
western/central MA...total accumulations of 2-5" seem reasonable.
The highest snowfall amounts of 5-10" should be common across the
northern Worcester Hills/Berks and as well as areas north of route
2. All in all...no changes planned to any of the headlines
except for the expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory into
northern CT.

Lastly...gusty N winds will work into the region on the backside of
the system later this evening and overnight. Gusts of 20-30 mph are
expected overnight with some 35-40+ mph gusts possible across
the outer- Cape/Nantucket. Low temps by daybreak will be in the
20s across the interior...with lower to middle 30s along the
I-95 corridor and middle to upper 30s near the Cape and Islands.
So not expecting many issues with roads along and southeast of
I-95 corridor...but northwest of I-95 untreated roads will be
slippery for the Wed am commute despite the precipitation having
ended.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* High pressure builds in following the exit of the coastal storm,
  leading to cooler, drier weather

The low responsible for the active weather to start the week exits
heading into Wednesday morning and high pressure moves in behind it.
High temperatures are not expected to get higher than the low 40s
and mid 30s for the region, with some spots in the higher elevations
struggling to get above freezing. NW winds weaken and shift slightly
more to the W and SW as the day progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Scattered snow showers possible Thursday.

* Arctic airmass in place Thursday night-Saturday bringing well
  below normal temperatures.

Details...

After a brief period of weak high pressure, a shortwave trough moves
through the region on Thursday accompanied by a strong cold front.
The wave is fairly moisture starved with precipitable water values
0.4-0.6". There should be a brief window with some mid-level
moisture advecting into the region. With the help of the
approaching front, this will provide lift for a few snow
showers during the day Thursday. Ensembles show low-moderate
probabilities for light QPF amounts. With marginal instability
present and approaching arctic front/airmass, global guidance
also hint at snow squall potential. Given limited moisture and
uncertainty in the details of the frontal passage, this will be
lower probability for now. A few convective showers/segments
that may be capable of a localized brief "burst" of higher snow
rates. Overall deterministic/ensemble guidance keeps totals
trace to light if anything given the localized nature of the
showers.

An arctic airmass will push in behind the front Thursday night.
850mb temperatures range -15 to -20C with mainly clear skies.
Despite breezy conditions (at least to start the night),
temperatures will likely plummet into the single digits for the
interior and teens along the coast. These are the coldest
temperatures of the season so far. As mentioned, winds may be
elevated to start the night which will bring wind chill values into
the negative single digits for the higher terrain and single digits
elsewhere. The arctic airmass remains in place for Friday support
high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal. Highs struggle to
reach 30 degrees, with the exception of SE MA and the south coast in
the mid 30s.

Ensemble guidance shows a consensus for a transition to a more
active pattern heading into the weekend. There is a signal for a
coastal system to brush the region sometime late Friday-Saturday.
Details still less certain this far out, but this could bring
another round of precipitation to southern New England. Once timing
and track become more clear, we will get a better idea of precip
type (snow or mix/rain event).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z update...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence (precipitation type)

Ceilings drop to IFR-LIFR as precip overspreads the region this
morning, 12-15z in west and 15-18z in the east. Ptype rain for
coastal terminals. SN to start for BAF and ORH, with chance for
RA to mix in the afternoon. SN to RASN mix or potentially a
period of RA at BED and BDL. Lower confidence for precipitation
type due to uncertainty in location of rain-snow line. E-NE wind
5-15 kt. Minor accumulations for BDL/BED. Light accumulations
for BAF (< 5"). 2-6" possible depending on where RA- SN line
positions. Snowfall rates less than 0.5"/hour for terminals.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.

Widespread IFR-LIFR improving to VFR late from west to east
after 06Z. Light SN for interior terminals in evening. Change
over to a period of light RA/SN or light SN possible along the
I-95 corridor, including BOS and PVD for a short period. Timing
of change over is lower confidence, but would be after 03Z.
Minor accum (Trace-0.5") possible at BOS. NE wind becoming N-NNW
with gusts to 25 kt developing, with 30-40 kt gusts possible
for Cape/Islands.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

VFR. NW winds with gusts up to 22 kts (up to 25 kts for
Cape/Islands) in the morning decreasing in the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Changeover to -RASN or -SN possible Tuesday night. Exact timing
lower confidence, more likely between 03-07z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Lower confidence in
timing of ptype changes.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Slight
chance SN.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Tuesday Night... High confidence.

Rain overspreads the waters and SSE winds early increase and
turn out of the east then northeast late as a low pressure
system crosses the southern waters. Gusts to 30-35 kts become
possible tonight over the eastern waters, and around 25- 30 kts
for the southern waters. Seas become rough as well, approaching
8-9 ft. Gale Warning starting 7 PM tonight through the
overnight hours for the eastern waters, while a Small Craft
Advisory is issued for the southern waters.

Seas and winds begin to diminish heading into Wednesday as high
pressure moves in over the waters.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Areas of rough seas.

Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ002-
     003.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ005-
     006-010>012.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ002>004-
     008-009-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ230.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ233>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch
MARINE...Hrencecin/Mensch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
733 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

RIZ001-003-021500-
Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Foster, Smithfield, Coventry,
and West Greenwich
733 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...AREAS OF SNOW LEADING TO SLOW TRAVEL TUESDAY MORNING...

A band of snow showers have developed across western and northern
Rhode Island this morning leading minor snow accumulations and
slick roadways. Expecting snow to change over to rain midmorning
which will wash away any accumulation.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1215 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

CTZ004-RIZ001-022000-
Windham CT-Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Putnam, Willimantic, Foster,
and Smithfield
1215 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...

Temperatures near or just below freezing in some spots were
resulting in pockets of sleet and freezing rain. This will result
in slippery spots particularly across the hills of northeast
Connecticut and northwest Rhode Island for the next one to two
hours. Temperatures should climb above freezing by late
afternoon...changing any remaining sleet and freezing rain to
plain rain. Precipitation will be in the form of all rain for the
evening commute...so no issues are expected by that time.

Frank