Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
320 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, diminishing
  from west to east early this evening. Some storms could produce
  wind gusts up to 50 mph across the eastern plains with small
  hail. It is expected that almost all storms come to an end
  before 9pm across the I-25 corridor.

- A chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms and above normal
  temperatures are expected for the weekend into early next week.
  Some strong to severe storms are possible with large hail and
  damaging wind gusts across the eastern plains.

- Hot temperatures expected Wednesday with the upper 90s expected
  across the plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

SPC mesoanalysis shows 1,000 j/kg of surface based CAPE across the
plains this afternoon with higher values exceeding 2,000 across
the northeast corner by Nebraska. With 500 mb winds around 20
knots, deep layer shear is lacking today so the severe weather
threat is rather low. However, the easterly winds and healthy dew
points in the upper 50s will help to create storms that will
merge into a line during the late afternoon. This line may have
wind gusts up to 50 mph associated with it and there could be one
or two severe wind gusts above 60 mph especially in the far
northeast corner of the state since there is better instability
there. Across the I-25 corridor, some weak showers and storms may
linger into the early evening hours. But with subsidence aloft due
to the departing shortwave trough, the only thing keeping the
storms going is the daytime warming. Therefore, showers and
storms are expected to end at sunset with minimal threat to
evening firework shows.

Saturday and Sunday will have similar setups. There will be weak
zonal flow aloft on the northern edge of a ridge. There will be
weak lee cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado which will keep
surface winds light out of the east. The easterly winds will keep
in decent moisture and moderate instability especially east of
DIA each day. High resolution models indicate isolated to
scattered storms will form over the eastern plains and they may
become strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The shear will be the limiting factor so storms are not expected
to be particularly long-lived. This will keep the severe threat in
the marginal or slight SPC categories.

Monday may be the day with the best severe setup since similar
instability and moisture will be in place. However, there will
likely be a shortwave aloft that will increase deep layer shear
and forcing so better coverage of strong to severe storms is
expected. This threat may require a slight or enhanced SPC risk if
the timing of the shortwave is roughly in the afternoon or evening
Monday.

A ridge will strengthen and move north over Colorado on Tuesday
and Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions and much warmer
temperatures. Wednesday appears to the be warmest day with highs
reaching the upper 90s across the plains with some locations like
Greeley having a chance to hit 100.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. The main impact
today will be wind gusts from isolated thunderstorms. If a storm
were to go over a terminal, gusts could reach 35 knots. The most
likely time for a storm to impact the terminals is 19-22Z.
Drainage will return for the latter part of the evening but a weak
boundary will move across the terminals shifting winds to the
north or northwest overnight. Isolated storms are again possible
Saturday afternoon with winds being the primary impacts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...Danielson

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
1234 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

COZ036-041-041915-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet CO-Elbert/Central
and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet CO-
1234 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY
UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

At 1234 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Perry Park, or 28 miles south of Denver, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Southern Castle Rock, Larkspur, Greenland and Perry Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3929 10507 3942 10493 3927 10467 3918 10470
      3913 10475 3913 10490
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 310DEG 15KT 3932 10497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gimmestad

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
351 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

COZ042-048-042245-
Logan County CO-Northeast Weld County CO-
351 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOGAN AND EAST
CENTRAL WELD COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 351 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from 12 miles northeast of Westplains to 9
miles north of Stoneham, or extending from 20 miles southeast of
Kimball to 27 miles west of Sterling, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Sterling, Merino, Iliff, Peetz, North Sterling Reservoir, Logan
  Corners, Padroni, Atwood, Pawnee Pass, Westplains, Willard and
  Proctor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on North Sterling Reservoir, get out of the water and secure
loose items. Boaters can expect strong gusty winds and locally
higher waves. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately.

Prepare for sudden gusty winds. Secure loose objects and move to a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 10380 4090 10355 4100 10347 4100 10299
      4088 10285 4056 10308 4044 10323 4044 10347
      4052 10347 4052 10356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 308DEG 23KT 4102 10340 4088 10352 4074 10369

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Gimmestad

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
419 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

COZ044-049-042245-
Washington County CO-Morgan County CO-
419 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN MORGAN AND
NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 419 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from 5 miles west of Willard to near Fort
Morgan, or extending from 21 miles west of Sterling to near Fort
Morgan, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Fort Morgan, Brush, Log Lane Village, Hillrose, Snyder, Midway,
  Gary, Antelope Springs, Adena School, Prewitt Reservoir, Union,
  Messex and Fort Morgan Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4011 10392 4044 10377 4052 10369 4052 10347
      4044 10347 4044 10322 4000 10347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 282DEG 20KT 4058 10358 4042 10370 4019 10380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Gimmestad

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