Extreme Cold Warning 2, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

514 
WWUS75 KBOU 172144
NPWBOU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
244 PM MST Mon Feb 17 2025

COZ050-051-181300-
/O.CON.KBOU.EC.W.0002.250218T0500Z-250220T1800Z/
Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
Including the cities of Amherst, Julesburg, Holyoke, Ovid,
Sedgwick, and Haxtun
244 PM MST Mon Feb 17 2025

...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 
11 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below expected.

* WHERE...Julesburg, and Holyoke.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm and dry shelter, food, and 
unfrozen water.

&&

$$

COZ042-044-046>049-181300-
/O.CON.KBOU.CW.Y.0003.250218T0500Z-250220T1800Z/
Northeast Weld County-Morgan County-North and Northeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County-Southeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-Logan County-
Washington County-
Including the cities of Karval, Merino, Peetz, Sterling, Crook,
Akron, Goodrich, Cope, Hugo, Otis, Grover, Pawnee Buttes, Fort
Morgan, Kutch, Agate, Stoneham, Forder, Punkin Center, Matheson,
Briggsdale, Raymer, Limon, Last Chance, Brush, and Wiggins
244 PM MST Mon Feb 17 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 25 below expected.

* WHERE...Briggsdale, Fort Morgan, Limon, Southern Lincoln County, 
  Sterling, and Akron.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unsheltered people will have a high risk of frostbite and 
hypothermia. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and 
neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use 
generators or grills inside.

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service, visit 
https://weather.gov/bou

Meier

037 
WWUS75 KBOU 180838
NPWBOU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
138 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

COZ050-051-182200-
/O.CON.KBOU.EC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
Including the cities of Haxtun, Ovid, Amherst, Sedgwick, Holyoke,
and Julesburg
138 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below expected.

* WHERE...Julesburg, and Holyoke.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm and dry shelter, food, and 
unfrozen water.

&&

$$

COZ042-044-046>049-182200-
/O.CON.KBOU.CW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Northeast Weld County-Morgan County-North and Northeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County-Southeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-Logan County-
Washington County-
Including the cities of Briggsdale, Limon, Stoneham, Agate,
Sterling, Hugo, Wiggins, Cope, Matheson, Forder, Merino, Raymer,
Otis, Fort Morgan, Brush, Grover, Peetz, Akron, Kutch, Pawnee
Buttes, Goodrich, Karval, Last Chance, Punkin Center, and Crook
138 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills between 15 below and 25 expected.

* WHERE...Briggsdale, Fort Morgan, Limon, Southern Lincoln County, 
  Sterling, and Akron.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unsheltered people will have a high risk of frostbite and 
hypothermia. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and 
neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use 
generators or grills inside.

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service, visit 
https://weather.gov/bou

Rodriguez

317 
WWUS75 KBOU 182048
NPWBOU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO
148 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

COZ050-051-191800-
/O.CON.KBOU.EC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
Including the cities of Holyoke, Haxtun, Amherst, Julesburg,
Sedgwick, and Ovid
148 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below expected.

* WHERE...Phillips County and Sedgwick County Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 15 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must 
go outside.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and 
unfrozen water.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

&&

$$

COZ042-044-046>049-191800-
/O.CON.KBOU.CW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Northeast Weld County-Morgan County-North and Northeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County-Southeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-Logan County-
Washington County-
Including the cities of Raymer, Sterling, Otis, Fort Morgan, Last
Chance, Punkin Center, Briggsdale, Grover, Goodrich, Hugo, Brush,
Matheson, Akron, Limon, Agate, Wiggins, Crook, Forder, Kutch,
Peetz, Pawnee Buttes, Merino, Karval, Cope, and Stoneham
148 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills between 15 below and 25 expected.

* WHERE...North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North 
  Lincoln County, Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South 
  Lincoln County, Logan County, Morgan County, Northeast Weld 
  County, and Washington County Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure 
portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills 
inside.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service, visit 
https://weather.gov/bou

196 
WWUS75 KBOU 190251
NPWBOU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
751 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

COZ050-051-191100-
/O.CON.KBOU.EC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
Including the cities of Ovid, Sedgwick, Julesburg, Amherst,
Holyoke, and Haxtun
751 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below.

* WHERE...Julesburg, and Holyoke.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 15 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm and dry shelter, food, and 
unfrozen water.

&&

$$

COZ042-044-046>049-191100-
/O.CON.KBOU.CW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Northeast Weld County-Morgan County-North and Northeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County-Southeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-Logan County-
Washington County-
Including the cities of Merino, Otis, Goodrich, Akron, Last
Chance, Karval, Raymer, Briggsdale, Forder, Brush, Sterling,
Stoneham, Limon, Crook, Matheson, Agate, Cope, Peetz, Grover,
Wiggins, Kutch, Fort Morgan, Punkin Center, Pawnee Buttes, and
Hugo
751 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills between 15 below and 25 expected.

* WHERE...Briggsdale, Fort Morgan, Limon, Southern Lincoln County, 
  Sterling, and Akron.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unsheltered people will have a high risk of frostbite and 
hypothermia. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and 
neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use 
generators or grills inside.

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service, visit 
https://weather.gov/bou

RPK

218 
WWUS75 KBOU 191149
NPWBOU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
449 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2025

COZ050-051-192200-
/O.CON.KBOU.EC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
Including the cities of Haxtun, Ovid, Holyoke, Amherst,
Julesburg, and Sedgwick
449 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2025

...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below.

* WHERE...Julesburg, and Holyoke.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 15 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm and dry shelter, food, and 
unfrozen water.

&&

$$

COZ042-044-046>049-192200-
/O.CON.KBOU.CW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Northeast Weld County-Morgan County-North and Northeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County-Southeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-Logan County-
Washington County-
Including the cities of Stoneham, Otis, Fort Morgan, Wiggins,
Kutch, Goodrich, Karval, Grover, Raymer, Agate, Forder, Akron,
Punkin Center, Crook, Limon, Last Chance, Sterling, Matheson,
Hugo, Pawnee Buttes, Brush, Briggsdale, Cope, Peetz, and Merino
449 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills between 15 below and 25 expected.

* WHERE...Briggsdale, Fort Morgan, Limon, Southern Lincoln County, 
  Sterling, and Akron.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unsheltered people will have a high risk of frostbite and 
hypothermia. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and 
neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use 
generators or grills inside.

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service, visit 
https://weather.gov/bou

Rodriguez

553 
WWUS75 KBOU 192305
NPWBOU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
405 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2025

COZ050-051-201200-
/O.CON.KBOU.EC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
Including the cities of Ovid, Julesburg, Haxtun, Holyoke,
Amherst, and Sedgwick
405 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2025

...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below.

* WHERE...Julesburg, and Holyoke.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm and dry shelter, food, and 
unfrozen water.

&&

$$

COZ042-044-046>049-201200-
/O.CON.KBOU.CW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Northeast Weld County-Morgan County-North and Northeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County-Southeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-Logan County-
Washington County-
Including the cities of Pawnee Buttes, Matheson, Brush, Crook,
Last Chance, Cope, Peetz, Briggsdale, Raymer, Merino, Otis,
Stoneham, Goodrich, Agate, Limon, Akron, Sterling, Wiggins,
Punkin Center, Fort Morgan, Hugo, Grover, Kutch, Forder, and
Karval
405 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills between 15 below and 25 expected.

* WHERE...Briggsdale, Fort Morgan, Limon, Southern Lincoln County, 
  Sterling, and Akron.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unsheltered people will have a high risk of frostbite and 
hypothermia. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and 
neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use 
generators or grills inside.

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service, visit 
https://weather.gov/bou

Gimmestad

654 
WWUS75 KBOU 200917
NPWBOU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
217 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2025

COZ050-051-201800-
/O.CON.KBOU.EC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
Including the cities of Ovid, Haxtun, Holyoke, Julesburg,
Amherst, and Sedgwick
217 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2025

...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Julesburg, and Holyoke.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST this morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm and dry shelter, food, and 
unfrozen water.

&&

$$

COZ042-044-046>049-201800-
/O.CON.KBOU.CW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Northeast Weld County-Morgan County-North and Northeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County-Southeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-Logan County-
Washington County-
Including the cities of Raymer, Last Chance, Peetz, Pawnee
Buttes, Fort Morgan, Brush, Cope, Crook, Limon, Matheson, Karval,
Wiggins, Merino, Forder, Punkin Center, Grover, Stoneham, Kutch,
Hugo, Otis, Akron, Goodrich, Briggsdale, Sterling, and Agate
217 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero.

* WHERE...Briggsdale, Fort Morgan, Limon, Southern Lincoln County, 
  Sterling, and Akron.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM MST this morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero 
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unsheltered people will have a high risk of frostbite and 
hypothermia. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and 
neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use 
generators or grills inside.

If you must go outside, dress in several layers of warm clothing, 
including a hat, face mask, and gloves. Avoid prolonged outdoor 
exposure.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service, visit 
https://weather.gov/bou

Heavener

799 
WWUS75 KBOU 201756
NPWBOU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
1056 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2025

COZ050-051-201900-
/O.EXP.KBOU.EC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
Including the cities of Ovid, Holyoke, Sedgwick, Haxtun,
Julesburg, and Amherst
1056 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2025

...EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING...

Temperatures have moderated this morning allowing the warning to 
expire.

$$

COZ042-044-046>049-201900-
/O.EXP.KBOU.CW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250220T1800Z/
Northeast Weld County-Morgan County-North and Northeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County-Southeast Elbert
County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-Logan County-
Washington County-
Including the cities of Hugo, Punkin Center, Crook, Sterling,
Peetz, Akron, Grover, Forder, Briggsdale, Wiggins, Agate,
Stoneham, Brush, Raymer, Goodrich, Matheson, Cope, Merino,
Karval, Last Chance, Otis, Pawnee Buttes, Limon, Fort Morgan, and
Kutch
1056 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING...

Temperatures have moderated this morning allowing the advisory to 
expire.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service, visit 
https://weather.gov/bou

Danielson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
936 PM MST Sun Feb 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow becoming heavier tonight through Monday night.
  Significant travel impacts expected.

- Very cold air returns to northeast Colorado Monday night through
  Thursday morning with periods of light snow.

- Another system will bring another round of snow to the mountains
  Wednesday night through Thursday with a chance of snow across
  the rest of the area.

- Temperatures across the plains will slowly moderate from Thursday
  through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM MST Sun Feb 16 2025

Web cameras, observations and area radars are all showing, mostly
light snow in the mountains late this evening. There is a decent
batch of mid and upper level clouds over the plains, but that
pushing eastward out of the CWA. There is still an issue about fog
developing or not over the plains. Some of the models are showing
fog developing and some do not. Some of the upper cloudiness will
exit the CWA and the expected wind field over the plains should
be pretty light. There is some low level moisture around tonight
as well. I will leave the patchy fog over some of the plains that
is currently in the grids. For other parameters, I will lower the
pops a bit over the plains overnight into Monday morning with
latest model data in mind. Will also decrease cloud cover somewhat
over night with current trends in mind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Feb 16 2025

Satellite showing the next swath of clouds and moisture moving
into northwest Colorado with the next system. Radar is starting to
fill in over northwest and north central Colorado. Webcams are
just starting to show snow falling over the north central/central
mountains. Already moved up the start time of the warnings and
advisories to begin now. A strong (~100-120 knots) west-northwest
flow aloft will prevail through Monday afternoon. This strong
moist flow moving across the mountains is expected to produce
light to moderate snow. Some bands of moderate to heavy snow will
occur as well due to the jet overhead. In addition to the heavy
mountain snowfall, winds gusting to 40 mph will produce areas of
blowing and drifting snow, especially over the mountains passes.

For the Front Range and eastern plains, the temperature forecast
will be the biggest challenge. Not surprising, winds on the
backside of the Denver Cyclone has helped hold colder air in place
today with only a slow moderation of the airmass. Highs to the
north of Denver will struggle to top 30F. Westerly winds above to
colder air in the southern foothills is resulting in temperatures
in the lower 40s. The battle between these two airmasses continues
tonight and Monday. The foothills and Palmer Divide are expected
to be the warmest tonight as will with lows in the 20s. The low
lying areas north and northeast of the Denver metro will be the
coldest with lows in the 5F to 15F degree range. May see another
round of fog again tonight and Monday morning to the north of
Denver in this colder airmass. Temperature setup Monday will be
somewhat similar today. Northeast to easterly low level flow will
hold colder air over much of northeast Colorado. Then by early to
mid afternoon arctic air begins to back southwestward. Still looks
like the HRRR and NAMNest are running about 10 degrees too warm
for highs across parts of the area, including Denver. We will see
a large temperature gradient as well with highs in the upper 40s
in the foothills southwest of Denver to the lower to mid teens
over the northeast corner of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Feb 16 2025

Cold and snow continue to be the main focus for the long term
forecast period, which starts in the midst of our current winter
weather headlines. By Monday evening, cross sections show deep
moisture persisting over the mountains and pushing eastward onto the
plains. Heavy mountain snow is expected to continue overnight, with
the heaviest amounts shifting southward into the Vasquez Mountains
and Gore Range for the evening as steady QG ascent continues ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. Across the plains, our first
wave of arctic air will move into the northeastern corner of
Colorado by Monday evening. With the arrival of cold air, a swath of
frontogenesis will stretch across the plains. As the aforementioned
moisture pushes east, snow is expected to develop across the lower
elevations for the evening and overnight hours.  While accumulations
are expected to be light, with frontogenesis in play and a jet
overhead, there is potential for some banded snowfall to bring areas
of heavier amounts where the bands develop. Snow chances will remain
through the day on Tuesday as the shortwave trough passes across the
forecast area, and some steeper lapse rates remain through the
afternoon. Increasing NW flow is expected overnight Tuesday as a
150kt jet streak stretches from NW to SE across the WY/CO border.
While cross sections show a more shallow moisture profile in place,
there will be enough to allow for some additional light snow to
accumulate over the northern plains.

A surface anticyclone over southern Canada will keep the cold air
flowing into eastern Colorado via a general easterly surface flow
through Wednesday, with a more prominent cold wave expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Ensembles continue to show varying solutions
for how cold it will get, however, the spread in values has
decreased as we get closer to the event. The GEFS continues to be
the warmest solution with keeping the coldest air to the north and
east of the urban corridor, but has slowly trended towards the
colder solutions of the Canadian and Euro ensembles. Will continue
to blend towards the Euro mean for this package as it remains the
middle of our ensemble guidance. As of now, guidance doesn't push
the coldest air as far west as the foothills, but in these cold air
events, this tends to happen. Have gone ahead and issued an Extreme
Cold Watch for Sedgwick, Phillips, Logan, and Washington Counties
for now, as the current forecast has periods where wind chills as
cold as -30F will occur between late Monday night through
Thursday morning. This may need to be pushed west in the coming
packages when confidence increases with regards to how far west
the cold air makes it. But for now, be prepared for extremely cold
temperatures this week, and put on extra layers if you must spend
any time outside!

There will be additional chances for mountain snow with another
shortwave trough expected Wednesday night into Thursday.
Temperatures are expected to moderate beginning on Friday as ridging
builds over the west. Ensembles show temperatures quick to rebound
into the 60s for the weekend. Opted to go on the low side of
guidance for now as this seems a tad fast for the cold air to move
out, but we are expecting to see much warmer temperatures for next
weekend!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 639 PM MST Sun Feb 16 2025

A weak Denver cyclone is in place across the plains with it's
center around the southeast corner of Weld County. As a result,
weak west and northwesterly winds should continue at DIA well past
midnight tonight. Currently, at DIA, the ASOS is indicating 6SM
BR. Not certain how dense the fog will eventually become, as a
number of models do not even show low level Stratus whatsoever. I
may need a TEMPO group for some lower visibilities, we'll see. I
will keep a VCFG going in the DEN TAF for a few hours this evening
into the overnight period. Will also put SCT low clouds in. No
precipitation overnight and Monday morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ031-033.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ032-034.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Thursday
morning for COZ048>051.

&&

UPDATE.......rjk
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM....Bonner
AVIATION.....rjk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
926 AM MST Sun Feb 16 2025

COZ030>051-171630-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
926 AM MST Sun Feb 16 2025

...Winter Storm Warning for the northern mountains tonight
through early Tuesday morning...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Snow will develop in the mountains this afternoon becoming
heavier in the evening and overnight, when travel impacts will
become widespread. Breezy conditions for the higher elevations
will also sustain periods of blowing snow and reduced visibility
near and above pass levels.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Snow, heavy at times, will continue across the northern mountains
into early Tuesday morning, creating hazardous driving
conditions. Snow is possible for the plains Monday evening with an
inch or two possible.

Arctic air will arrive Monday night and continue through Thursday
across the plains. The coldest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday
as highs will be in the single digits and teens, dropping below
zero overnight.

Another weather system will bring more snow to the mountains
Wednesday night and Thursday with a chance of snow across the
plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.