Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Boise, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
243 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...Southwest flow
will push Pacific moisture over a hot and unstable daytime air
mass, supporting isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm
initiation over higher terrain along the northern NV border and
across w-central Idaho mtns. From there, steering flow will take
them northward. The pattern remains locked in place through
Monday and we'll see little change in the storm environment.
The result will be thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds
of 30 to 50 mph and locally heavy rain. Shear values could
support a stronger storm or two which would increase the upper
end of any accompanying outflow, rain and possibly small hail.
Temperatures are a few degrees below normal Sunday, warming to
normal on Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Southwesterly flow aloft
is the name of the game. Daily afternoon/evening precipitation
chances (showers and thunderstorms) persist throughout. A strong
upper-level ridge will be in place over the Southern Great
Plains and a strong upper-level low will be near- stationary in
the Gulf of Alaska to drive this pattern. Mid- level atmospheric
moisture will move into the area from the southwesterly flow
aloft, which will assist in creating the daily precipitation
chances. Afternoon destabilization, when combined with the mid-
level moisture, will create thunderstorm chances Tuesday-
Saturday. Chances of precipitation are greatest across Eastern
Oregon and the west-central Idaho mountains, with daily ranges
spanning 15-30% each afternoon with a 15-20% chance of
thunderstorms across those locations. Chances across the Upper
Treasure Valley and the Western Magic Valley remain under 15%.
Wednesday into Thursday, a potent upper-level shortwave trough,
embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft, will move N/NE over
NV/OR/ID. This may provide additional forcing and
destabilization for shower/thunderstorm development.
Southwesterly flow prevails after this passage. Temperatures
will be right around normal for this time of year through
Thursday, before leaning below normal to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
across E Oregon and SW Idaho are ongoing and will move N/NE
throughout afternoon into evening and last through ~06z.
Thunderstorms are capable of producing outflows of 45 kt, heavy
rain, and localized blowing dust that may result in MVFR/IFR
conditions. Mtns obscured in showers/thunderstorms. Surface
winds: SW-NW 5-10 this afternoon with gusts 15-20 kts. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: Variable 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. A 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms between Sun/00z
and Sun/06z. Thunderstorms are ongoing in Owyhee county and will
move N/NE over this afternoon-evening. Thunderstorms will be
capable of 45 kt outflows and localized blowing dust resulting
in MVFR visibilities. Outflows may travel from distant storms.
Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt with gusts near 15-20 kts possible.

Sunday Outlook...Less thunderstorm coverage is expected Sunday
afternoon/evening. Greatest chances for thunderstorms will be in
Valley county, Eastern Oregon, and near the ID/OR/NV border.
Storms will move largely from S to N/NE, and will be capable of
producing gusty outflow winds with speeds up to 45 kt. Winds
could produce blowing dust. Outside of storms, surface winds
generally W-NW 5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this
     evening IDZ423.
OR...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening ORZ672.

&&

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boise ID
357 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

ORZ063-270000-
Malheur County OR-
357 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MALHEUR COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM PDT...

At 357 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Jackies Butte, or 9 miles south of Rome, moving
northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Areas of blowing dust reducing
         visibilities. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Crooked Creek State Park around 510 PM MDT.
  Saddle Butte Lava Tube around 600 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 11740 4255 11788 4300 11822 4311 11753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 155DEG 18KT 4269 11767

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boise ID
502 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

IDZ015-029-ORZ063-270000-
Southwest Highlands ID-Owyhee Mountains ID-Malheur County OR-
502 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL OWYHEE AND EAST
CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 502 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
South Mountain, or 39 miles east of Rome, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Areas of blowing dust reducing
         visibilities. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  South Mountain around 510 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 11663 4255 11702 4295 11729 4297 11673
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 155DEG 18KT 4270 11687

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boise ID
544 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

IDZ029-270030-
Owyhee Mountains ID-
544 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL OWYHEE COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

At 544 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Delamar Mine, or 40 miles south of Nampa, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Areas of blowing dust reducing
         visibilities. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Owyhee
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 11703 4322 11702 4323 11702 4323 11670
      4298 11650 4286 11702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 169DEG 11KT 4302 11680

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SP