Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Boise, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
247 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...We'll see another
round of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. The focus of
develop will be across SE Oregon and SW Idaho south of the Snake
Plain as a minor wave tracks through the northern Great Basin. A
slightly warmer and drier air mass near the surface will
increase the outflow wind gust threat up to 50 mph, compared to
today's 30-40 mph potential while a weak shear environment will
result in mostly short-lived smaller storms. A deeper upper
trough and surface front will approach the region on Sunday
placing SE Oregon in a favorable position for shower and
thunderstorm development. A more robust environment ahead of the
trough would increase the chance for stronger thunderstorms to
develop. Southeast Oregon will see its somewhat common late
afternoon/evening wind push which will likely be enhanced by
the cold front and outflow from upstream showers/storms Sunday
evening. Typically windy locations, to include the I-84
corridor in Baker County along with northern Harney and Malheur
counties will see stronger winds Sunday evening. Temperatures
are at or slightly below normal through Sunday, even as the
average temperatures starts to drop after today. Smoke will hang
around with varying coverage.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...High guidance confidence
remains over a shortwave trough digging across the Pacific
Northwest and Upper Great Basin through Monday. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms are expected to continue Monday, mostly
over Eastern OR and West- Central ID. The frontal passage is
also expected to bring a cooling trend on Monday, dropping peak
valley temperatures into the lower to mid 80s and mountain
temperatures into the 60s/70s. Tuesday and Wednesday will see a
large high pressure ridge over the Four Corners region build
into the area, returning a warming and drying trend. Tuesday
will see valley daytime temperatures climb back up into the
upper 80s and Wednesday into the lower 90s. Guidance uncertainty
remains over a longwave trough moving into the Northwest region
on Thursday and Friday. For now, conditions are tentatively on
the warmer and drier side towards the end of the extended
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Wildfire smoke may create brief
MVFR conditions. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
developing through the afternoon/early evening, mainly over E'rn
OR, W-Central ID, and Magic Valley sites. Thunderstorms capable
of heavy rain, small hail, 30-40 kt outflows, and brief MVFR
conditions. Mtns obscured in precip and smoke. Surface winds
outside of outflows: SW-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft
at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...Mostly VFR. Wildfire smoke could briefly reduce
visibility in the morning/early afternoon. Surface winds: W-NW
5-10 kt, with weak outflow gusts up to 20 kt possible late
afternoon/early evening.

Weekend Outlook: Isolated showers/thunderstorms across Baker
County and higher terrain in SW Idaho Saturday/Sunday.
Thunderstorms capable of 30-40 kt outflows, and heavy rain
resulting in MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration. Surface
winds outside of outflows: NW-SW 5-15 kt each afternoon,
variable 5-10 kt over nights.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....JY