Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
631 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025

 - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms early Sunday
   morning for roughly the western two-thirds of central Alabama;
   a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms exists for locations
   near the Mississippi state line.

 - The primary severe weather threat early Sunday morning is
   damaging wind gusts with a secondary risk of a brief tornado
   or two.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025

A trough is now sliding into the Southern Plains with showers and
storms developing near a frontal axis, generally from St. Louis to
San Antonio. Based on current trends, a squall line should be in
the vicinity of the Mississippi/Alabama state line around
midnight/12 am Sunday, steadily moving eastward through the night.
Look for the initial line (severe potential) to be in the
Tuscaloosa area around 2 AM, Birmingham to Selma 3 to 4 AM,
Talladega to Montgomery 5 to 6 AM, and near Auburn to Troy 7 to 8
AM. Moderate to heavy rain will linger over an area for around 2
hours behind the initial line. Look for clearing to begin around 3
hours after the initial line moves in. So we should see a dry
forecast for most areas after 9 AM in the northwest 11 AM in the
northeast to southwest to 1 PM in the southeast.

While a low-level jet around 40 knots and a veering wind profile
will promote a sheared environment, instability parameters remain
low. All things considered, a few organized line segments and
kinks, though perhaps brief in longevity, are possible. This
prospect should favor the western two-thirds of central
Alabama along with the supportive weak CAPE/instability. The
primary threat is damaging wind gusts along bowing line segments,
though a brief tornado, or two, could occur with any kinks as
well.

16

Previous discussion:
(Through next Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Rest of next week:

Clear weather will return from west to east on Sunday as the
storm system quickly departs and high pressure begins to advance
from the west. Northwesterly winds will be breezy and gusty on
Sunday. Monday and Tuesday mornings will be chilly with low
temperatures in the 40s across central Alabama. Guidance suggests,
overall, Monday will be the cooler of the two mornings, with a
medium chance of some locations near the 278 corridor slipping
into the upper 30s.

Surface low pressure skirting across the northern Great Lakes
will drive a rain-free front across our area on Tuesday. This
will give a reinforcing shot of drier air to the region, yielding
a chilly morning, mild afternoon pattern. Morning lows are again
forecast to be in the 40s across the region through the rest of
the week, with guidance pinpointing Thursday as the coolest of
this episode, showing a medium to high chance for some communities
near the 278 corridor to slip into the upper 30s once again.
Parameters for frost are low at this time. Temperatures then
moderate a bit heading into the weekend.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Expect a few more hours of VFR conditions across the area,
followed by deteriorating CIGS and weather with increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms arriving from the west overnight.
Inclement conditions are expected to arrive at TCL by 06z and move
eastward with time, affecting MGM/AUO toward 11z. Expect
increasing low-level winds from the south at 15-25 kts overnight
ahead of the convective line followed by northwest winds 15-25 kts
with gradually improving conditions through the remainder of the
morning hours on Sunday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon MinRHs will generally run in the 40 percent range, with
some areas as low as the upper 30s. In areas, breeziness will
persist past sundown. A squall involving heavy rain and
thunderstorms will sweep across the state overnight Saturday.
While the speed of the system will leave the rest of Sunday in a
drying and breezy/gusty post-frontal flow, MinRHs will remain
above critical thresholds.

Monday is forecast to trend drier, with MinRHs in the 20 percent
range and light winds. A dry front is forecast to move across the
region on Tuesday, which will set the stage for MinRHs to continue
bottoming out in the 20 percent range, but with the added risk of
low 20s in areas, for a couple days at least.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  73  41  71 /  90  70   0   0
Anniston    62  73  43  72 /  90  80   0   0
Birmingham  63  73  44  72 /  90  60   0   0
Tuscaloosa  65  75  45  76 /  90  40   0   0
Calera      63  76  44  75 /  90  60   0   0
Auburn      63  77  48  73 /  60  90   0   0
Montgomery  66  79  46  74 /  90  70   0   0
Troy        63  79  46  74 /  70  90   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1121 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

ALZ012-190500-
Lamar AL-
1121 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAMAR COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
CDT...

At 1121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Aberdeen to 9 miles
northwest of Caledonia to near Waverly. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Sulligent, Detroit, Beaverton, Blooming Grove, Lamar County
Airport, Crews, Bedford, Crossville, Gattman, Cody, Henson Springs,
Lamar County Public Lake, Star, Pine Springs, and Hightogy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8821 3405 8799 3402 8799 3402 8795
      3366 8795 3359 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 251DEG 43KT 3388 8844 3380 8843 3360 8856

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

05