Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
638 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025

- Level 1 and level 2 out of 5 risks for severe storms are
  outlooked for Central Alabama from through 1 am Friday morning.
  Large hail to half dollar size and damaging winds up to 60 mph
  will be possible with this activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025

This afternoon.

Broad troughing is positioned over much of the Ohio and Tennessee
River Valley Regions while ridging was over much of Mexico and
the Desert Southwest. A potent shortwave was identified by water
vapor imagery over Southeast Missouri and was moving southeast
toward Middle Tennessee. Toward the surface, low pressure was
analyzed across Southeast Minnesota with an occluded front
extending south to a Triple Point positioned just Northwest of St.
Louis, MO with a warm front extending east just north of the Ohio
River and a cold front stretching southwest across Oklahoma into
Northern Texas.

Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon with an increasing
chance for thunderstorm activity initially across the northwest
counties toward mid afternoon, then increasing further and
expanding southeast with time through late afternoon out ahead of
the approaching mid-level disturbance. Some storms may be severe
with large hail up to half dollar size and damaging winds up to 60
mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the
higher terrain east to the lower 80s southwest and far west. Winds
will be from the west to southwest at 7-14 mph.

Tonight.

The potent disturbance embedded in the troughing to our north
will continue to dive southeast, moving over the Tennessee Valley
Region this evening and into the overnight hours while a surface
cold front arrives from the northwest. Steep lapse rates due to
the cold pocket aloft will help force convective development
through the evening that will push southeast with time through the
overnight hours. Some storms may be severe with large hail up to
half dollar size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Lows tonight
will range from the mid 40s far north to the lower 50s south.
Winds will initially be from the west, becoming northwest behind
the activity with speeds from 5-10 mph.

Friday.

Broad troughing will remain over the forecast area into the day
on Friday as a secondary disturbance dives southeast around the
base of the trough from the Mid-South Region toward the Central
Gulf Coast. The surface cold front will move southeast of the area
by the late morning hours. There will be potential for some
showers and storms developing and pushing southward into the area
from the north and northeast through the day, but instability
values appear to be lower than today, resulting in storm
intensities lower than this afternoon and evening. High
temperatures will range from the lower 60s far north to the lower
70s south. Winds will be from the northwest at 8-16 mph.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025

Behind the front, look for surface ridging to build in across ERN
Conus for the weekend. With light/near calm winds expected for
Saturday night into early Sunday, we could see a little patchy
frost in our far NRN and NE counties toward sunrise. By Monday,
the ridge center will shift SE toward FL and a SW low level flow.
Look for warmer temperature readings for Monday (generally lower
to mid 80s) in response. Another reinforcing cold front will move
through late Monday and will help to cool things down for lows
again and get rid of the 80s for a few days (rest of extended).
No precip is anticipated with the Monday front.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT THU APR 10 2025

Following the departure of the upper-level trough, cooler conditions
will develop on Saturday as deep north to northwest flow brings down
a northern airmass. Temperatures on Saturday will warm into the 60s
with sunny skies. Will have to watch for frost development Sunday
morning, especially in the cooler valley areas across the north
where temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s.
Went on the cooler side of forecast guidance given northeasterly
surface flow and clear skies.

High pressure and low to mid-level ridging will continue to dominate
the pattern through the early part of next week in which
temperatures warm back into the 80s on Monday as flow shifts back to
the west-southwest. An upper-level trough will move across the Upper
Midwest towards the Great Lakes on Monday night into Tuesday. It
looks like the associated cold front will quickly pass through the
area during the day on Tuesday, but forcing will be far removed to
our north and moisture appears limited, so did not add PoPs into the
forecast for now, but may introduce some low PoPs in later forecast
updates. That frontal passage looks to bring some cooler, drier air
back to the region by the middle of next week.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025

TAFs are currently VFR. Areas of TSRAs ahead of a front will sag
SWD and move SE across the C AL TAF sites this evening. Some gusty
winds will be possible with the storms. Have TEMPOs in for all but
MGM from 01-04z. It will take a little longer for storms to make
it to MGM, so I held off the TEMPO there until 04-07z. Most of the
cigs with these storms are VFR as well. Will forgo non-VFR cigs
for now. Winds will shift to the NW behind the storms with the
frontal passage. Some wrap around showers will be possible Fri
afternoon. Have a PROB30 mention for all NRN sites (all but MGM).

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to
Central Alabama late this afternoon through tonight. Additional
light rain will slide through on Friday afternoon behind the
front. However, amounts will be light. By the weekend, no
additional wetting rain is in the forecast. Winds and relative
humidities are expected to remain outside of critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     45  65  39  64 /  70  30  30   0
Anniston    46  65  40  65 /  70  30  30   0
Birmingham  49  65  43  64 /  60  30  30   0
Tuscaloosa  50  69  44  68 /  60  30  30   0
Calera      49  66  44  66 /  70  30  30   0
Auburn      50  68  45  66 /  70  20  30   0
Montgomery  52  71  45  67 /  70  10  20   0
Troy        52  72  46  67 /  60  10  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....08/86/Martin
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
230 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-111030-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
230 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon through the
evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon and evening.

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