Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025

- Level 1 and level 2 out of 5 risks for severe storms are
  outlooked for Central Alabama from 5 pm this afternoon through
  1 am Friday morning. Large hail to half dollar size and damaging
  winds up to 60 mph will be possible with this activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025

This afternoon.

Broad troughing is positioned over much of the Ohio and Tennessee
River Valley Regions while ridging was over much of Mexico and
the Desert Southwest. A potent shortwave was identified by water
vapor imagery over Southeast Missouri and was moving southeast
toward Middle Tennessee. Toward the surface, low pressure was
analyzed across Southeast Minnesota with an occluded front
extending south to a Triple Point positioned just Northwest of St.
Louis, MO with a warm front extending east just north of the Ohio
River and a cold front stretching southwest across Oklahoma into
Northern Texas.

Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon with an increasing
chance for thunderstorm activity initially across the northwest
counties toward mid afternoon, then increasing further and
expanding southeast with time through late afternoon out ahead of
the approaching mid-level disturbance. Some storms may be severe
with large hail up to half dollar size and damaging winds up to 60
mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the
higher terrain east to the lower 80s southwest and far west. Winds
will be from the west to southwest at 7-14 mph.

Tonight.

The potent disturbance embedded in the troughing to our north
will continue to dive southeast, moving over the Tennessee Valley
Region this evening and into the overnight hours while a surface
cold front arrives from the northwest. Steep lapse rates due to
the cold pocket aloft will help force convective development
through the evening that will push southeast with time through the
overnight hours. Some storms may be severe with large hail up to
half dollar size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Lows tonight
will range from the mid 40s far north to the lower 50s south.
Winds will initially be from the west, becoming northwest behind
the activity with speeds from 5-10 mph.

Friday.

Broad troughing will remain over the forecast area into the day
on Friday as a secondary disturbance dives southeast around the
base of the trough from the Mid-South Region toward the Central
Gulf Coast. The surface cold front will move southeast of the area
by the late morning hours. There will be potential for some
showers and storms developing and pushing southward into the area
from the north and northeast through the day, but instability
values appear to be lower than today, resulting in storm
intensities lower than this afternoon and evening. High
temperatures will range from the lower 60s far north to the lower
70s south. Winds will be from the northwest at 8-16 mph.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025

Behind the front, look for surface ridging to build in across ERN
Conus for the weekend. With light/near calm winds expected for
Saturday night into early Sunday, we could see a little patchy
frost in our far NRN and NE counties toward sunrise. By Monday,
the ridge center will shift SE toward FL and a SW low level flow.
Look for warmer temperature readings for Monday (generally lower
to mid 80s) in response. Another reinforcing cold front will move
through late Monday and will help to cool things down for lows
again and get rid of the 80s for a few days (rest of extended).
No precip is anticipated with the Monday front.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT THU APR 10 2025

Following the departure of the upper-level trough, cooler conditions
will develop on Saturday as deep north to northwest flow brings down
a northern airmass. Temperatures on Saturday will warm into the 60s
with sunny skies. Will have to watch for frost development Sunday
morning, especially in the cooler valley areas across the north
where temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s.
Went on the cooler side of forecast guidance given northeasterly
surface flow and clear skies.

High pressure and low to mid-level ridging will continue to dominate
the pattern through the early part of next week in which
temperatures warm back into the 80s on Monday as flow shifts back to
the west-southwest. An upper-level trough will move across the Upper
Midwest towards the Great Lakes on Monday night into Tuesday. It
looks like the associated cold front will quickly pass through the
area during the day on Tuesday, but forcing will be far removed to
our north and moisture appears limited, so did not add PoPs into the
forecast for now, but may introduce some low PoPs in later forecast
updates. That frontal passage looks to bring some cooler, drier air
back to the region by the middle of next week.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon while high and
some mid level clouds increase from the northwest. A disturbance
from the northwest is expected to support thunderstorms developing
and moving into the area this evening and persisting into the
overnight hours as the activity pushes southeast across much of
the area with some severe storms potentially becoming severe with
damaging winds and large hail. Low-level winds will be from the
west, becoming northwest late behind the activity with speeds from
6-12 kts. VFR conditions are expected to return areawide toward
daybreak on Friday before chances for showers and storms return to
portions of the area just beyond this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to
Central Alabama late this afternoon through tonight. Additional
light rain will slide through on Friday afternoon behind the
front. However, amounts will be light. By the weekend, no
additional wetting rain is in the forecast. Winds and relative
humidities are expected to remain outside of critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     45  65  39  64 /  50  40   0   0
Anniston    46  65  40  65 /  50  40   0   0
Birmingham  49  65  43  64 /  50  30   0   0
Tuscaloosa  50  69  44  68 /  50  20   0   0
Calera      49  66  44  66 /  50  20   0   0
Auburn      50  68  45  66 /  50  20   0   0
Montgomery  52  71  45  67 /  50  10   0   0
Troy        52  72  46  67 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....08/86/Martin
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
230 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-111030-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
230 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon through the
evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
445 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

ALZ018-102215-
Etowah AL-
445 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ETOWAH COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM
CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Altoona, or 8 miles east of Oneonta, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts near 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Walnut Grove, Gadsden Steam Plant, Hokes Bluff, Rainbow City,
Rockledge, Altoona, Aurora, Cobb City, Attalla, Gadsden Water Works,
Northside, Reaves, Ramsey, Glencoe, Big Wills Creek, Howelton,
Ballplay, Crudup, Southside, and Gallant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central, northeastern and east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 8585 3411 8584 3412 8579 3410 8580
      3399 8574 3393 8574 3396 8584 3394 8590
      3391 8590 3392 8595 3388 8599 3390 8614
      3399 8620 3397 8625 3398 8629 3394 8633
      3394 8635 3408 8632 3411 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 269DEG 20KT 3398 8633

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

89^GSatterwhite

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