Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
618 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

 - There is a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms containing
   isolated damaging winds and large hail, Sunday night into
   early Monday morning across northern and western portions of
   Central Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 602 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for northwestern
portions of Central Alabama through midnight. Damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes are all possible. Make sure you have
multiple ways to receive warnings through the night.

95/Castillo

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

This afternoon.

A zonal flow pattern prevails in the mid levels over the forecast
area this afternoon while amplified shortwave ridging is over the
Eastern Ohio River Valley while a potent trough was over the
Northern and Central Plains. A surface cold front extends from a
surface low centered across Eastern Wisconsin southward into the
Ozarks of Northwest Arkansas and stretched southwest back into
Southwest Texas.

Expect increasing clouds from the northwest through the rest of
the afternoon hours as the cold front to our northwest advances
southeast toward the forecast area. Favorable upper air support at
jet level along with some shortwave disturbances progged to move
northeast over the area in addition to warm surface temperatures
and increasing low-level moisture will support an environment
favorable for low (15-30%) chances of shower and thunderstorm
activity across the northwest portions of the area later this
afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms may become severe with
damaging winds up to 60 mph and hailstones up to quarter in size.
A level 1 of 5 risk is forecast across all but the southeast
portion of the area and a level 2 of 5 risk across the far
northwest counties. Winds will increase from the south through the
afternoon with speeds from 12-24 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph
possible, especially in the higher terrain north. High
temperatures will range from the mid 70s northwest and across the
higher elevations east to readings around 80 across the southwest.

Tonight.

The base of the broad mid-level trough will become centered over
the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region tonight while continued
favorable upper-level conditions and a warm and unstable enough
lower level environment will continue to support some severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds up to 60 mph and hailstones up
to quarter in size. A level 1 of 5 risk will remain across all but
the southeast portion of the area and a level 2 of 5 risk will
continue across the far northwest counties. The surface cold front
will advance further southeast, entering into the northwest
corner of the state late tonight and pushing southeast toward the
Interstate 59 corridor by sunrise Monday morning.

Further increasing clouds with a high (70-90%) chance for shower
and thunderstorm activity is forecast for areas near and northwest
of Interstate 85 with a medium (40-60%) chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the far southeast counties overnight. Winds
will become southwest at 7-14 mph. Low temperatures will range
from around 50 far northwest to near 60 southwest.

Monday.

A closed upper low will become centered over the Eastern Great
Lakes while the base of the mid-level broad trough will swing east
of the area during the day on Monday. The surface cold front will
decelerate as it continues moving southeast, barely clearing the
forecast area by Monday evening.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will become increasingly
confined to the southeast portion of the forecast area through the
morning hours on Monday, followed by a return to dry conditions
areawide by mid to late afternoon. Cloud cover will gradually
decrease from the northwest through the afternoon hours. Winds
will become northwest behind the surface cold front with speeds
from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from around 70 far
north and across the higher elevations east to the mid 70s south
and southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

No changes to the extended is needed through Friday. The next
system, next weekend will need to be monitored, but right now
there are some significant disagreements in the synoptic pattern
between models. Either way, we should see an increase in showers
and storms through the end of the month.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

Dry conditions are expected Monday night through Thursday due to
northwesterly flow at 500 mb. A brief cool down is expected
Wednesday night and Thursday as a dry front moves through the
region. Residual dry air will linger into Friday as the pattern
transitions to a south/southwest flow regime. Moisture return will
increase on Saturday ahead of a shortwave ejecting toward the
Mississippi Valley, perhaps leading to showers and thunderstorms
in our area on Saturday afternoon and evening.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Winds
remain a bit breezy with gusts around 20 knots expected for the
next several hours. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
move through late this evening through the overnight hours. Have
included TEMPO groups to account for the timing of the
heaviest/strongest activity. MVFR/IFR ceilings and vis will be
possible with any passing showers or storm. Some light rain may
linger through mid morning before clearing out. Winds will turn to
the north-northwest in the wake of a passing cold front.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger is expected to be elevated this afternoon with minimum
RH values of 25 to 30 across the eastern half of Alabama. Higher
dewpoints across the western part of the state will keep RH
values from dropping as much. 20 foot winds will increase to 10
to 15 mph this afternoon. Moisture will continue to increase
tonight as a front and associated showers and storms move from
northwest to southeast overnight. Behind the front RH levels will
drop to 25-30 percent Monday afternoon across the northern half of
Alabama as winds shift to the northwest. The dry airmass will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  70  43  76 /  90  40   0   0
Anniston    52  71  46  77 /  90  60   0   0
Birmingham  53  72  48  76 /  90  50   0   0
Tuscaloosa  56  74  47  78 /  90  50   0   0
Calera      55  72  48  77 /  90  60   0   0
Auburn      54  72  49  76 /  80  80   0   0
Montgomery  57  74  48  79 /  90  80   0   0
Troy        55  75  49  79 /  60  80  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/Castillo

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