Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
238 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 700 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025

 - A severe weather outbreak now appears likely over the Deep
   South and across Central Alabama during the afternoon and
   evening Saturday, lasting through early Sunday morning. A High
   Risk (Level 5/5) is now in place for much of Central Alabama. A
   Moderate Risk (Level 4/5) exists for the remainder of Central
   Alabama.

 - There is a Slight to Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall
   (Levels 1 & 2/4) Saturday through Sunday morning across much of
   Central Alabama. Generally 2-4" is forecast through the
   weekend. A Flood Watch is now in effect for northwestern
   portions of Central Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025

BLUF: A prolific severe weather event is expected today, with
multiple rounds of supercells likely through the afternoon hours.
Given the parameter space, tornadoes associated with these
supercells will have the capacity to be violent and long-lived.

Tornado watches and warnings are ongoing to our west, with new
convection already building in WFO Jackson's southern tier of
counties. These storm will continue to build north, eventually
translating into our first round of severe weather for the day.
However, some of these early storms may end up being suppressed, as
a special 05z balloon from BMX shows a rather stout warm nose
between 850 and 700mb. Even with the suppression, the early
convection will still be capable of producing all modes of severe
weather.

The significant tornado threat will really begin to ramp up around
noon, when the second surface low begins to develop near the
ArkLaTex region, ejecting into the lower Midwest. High-res guidance
continues to indicate rapid destabilization across the warm sector,
with a large portion of our region remaining relatively unphased by
the early convection. In fact, this morning convection could even
aid these afternoon supercells by planting residual boundaries for
them to latch onto. Once the warm nose overhead erodes, and storms
are able to tap into the full environment overhead, any storm that
starts to spin will be capable of producing a tornado. Any one of
these tornadoes will also have the capacity of become strong,
violent, and long-lived.

These supercells will continue to trek east into the evening hours,
remaining somewhat isolated from each other for the majority of the
event. However, things will begin to become more congested as these
storm push past I-65, eventually becoming more linear in shape. Even
with that scenario, storms along the line could retain their
supercell characteristics, keeping the strong tornado threat
lingering through the entirety of our CWA.

Even with storms expected to be ongoing as the sun comes up, there
is still time to prepare for what appears to be a prolific tornado
event across the region. Gather important documents, charge your
devices, and do not hesitate to act when prompted. These storms
could be moving 50+ MPH when a warning is issued, and time will be
of the essence. On a high-end day like today, take every precaution
necessary to protect yourself, and your loved ones.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025

Drier weather is anticipated to start the week. Ridging will build
in by Monday, with surface high pressure dominating the South. Highs
on Tuesday and Wednesday should rebound into the upper 70s to near
80 ahead of the next upper trough approaching the area by Wednesday
night. A surface low crossing the Plains into the Great Lakes region
will drag a cold front through the area Thursday, with rain chances
returning. Thunder is a possibility but isn't explicitly forecast at
this time. Late week looks cooler behind the front.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025

Gusty winds will remain over this TAF cycle with south-
southeasterly winds gusting to around 30 knots Saturday morning
and even stronger Saturday afternoon. MVFR ceilings spread back
across Central Alabama late tonight into tomorrow morning. Have
included a prob30 now for the lingering convection from the first
wave of storms. Models are really jumping on the convection
remaining north and west of BHM, so only have TCL in the first
wave. Went with the showers and storms for all sites in the
afternoon after 18z, except for MGM where the start will be around
21z. Continued with showers and storms through 6z at most
locations. TCL may see the rain ending by 3 to 4z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Min RH values should remain above 50 percent west of I-65, while
some eastern areas may dip to 40 percent. Southerly flow will
continue today, with winds sustained greater than 15 mph and gusts
up to 35-40 mph. This will continue heightened fire weather concerns
ahead of an expected severe weather outbreak this afternoon and into
the overnight. RH values Sunday are likely to fall to around 35
percent, and fall even lower to around 25 percent on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  53  70  35 /  80  90  30  10
Anniston    80  56  70  38 /  60 100  20  10
Birmingham  79  56  67  39 /  80  90  20   0
Tuscaloosa  77  53  68  38 /  90  90  10   0
Calera      78  56  70  39 /  80  90  10   0
Auburn      80  61  74  42 /  40 100  10   0
Montgomery  84  58  74  41 /  60  90  10   0
Troy        83  58  76  42 /  50  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for
the following counties: Blount-Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Walker-
Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
233 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-161045-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
233 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Some severe storms are possible across the western half of Central
Alabama through 8 am this morning. Damaging winds up to 60 mph,
large hail up to quarter size, and a few tornadoes will be possible.

An outbreak of severe weather is forecast this afternoon and evening
through early Sunday morning. Damaging winds up to 70 mph, large
hail up to golf ball size, and tornadoes, some of whichmay be strong
and long-tracked, are likely during this time frame.

There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall Saturday through
Sunday morning. Generally 2-4 inches of rainfall is expected. A
Flood Watch is now in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
on Saturday and Saturday night.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
303 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

ALZ012-013-022-150845-
Fayette AL-Pickens AL-Lamar AL-
303 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...FAYETTE
AND SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM CDT...

At 303 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Millport, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Ashcraft Corner, Stone Wall, Bazemore, Bankston, Richard Arthur
Field, Millport, Fayette County Public Lake, Shaw, Fayette, Kennedy,
Bevill State College Fayette, Hubbertville, Fowlers Crossroads, Glen
Allen, Belk, and Reform.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for central,
northwestern and west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 8774 3391 8774 3391 8764 3390 8764
      3387 8763 3387 8753 3378 8753 3338 8803
      3350 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 224DEG 51KT 3351 8805

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

32/JDavis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
325 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

ALZ014-150900-
Winston AL-
325 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTY
THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

At 325 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Phil Campbell, or near Haleyville, moving northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Posey Field Airport, Needmore, Haleyville, and Pebble.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for northwestern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8752 3421 8763 3431 8763 3431 8760
TIME...MOT...LOC 0825Z 221DEG 65KT 3429 8769

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

32/JDavis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
332 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

ALZ022-150900-
Pickens AL-
332 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY THROUGH
400 AM CDT...

At 332 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Aliceville, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Aliceville, Garden, Owens, Carrollton, Kirk, Dillburg, Johnston Lake,
Gordo, Lubbub, McMullen, George Downer Airport, and Reform.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for west central
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8794 3344 8784 3324 8784 3305 8806
      3305 8808 3304 8807 3304 8813 3311 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 218DEG 51KT 3311 8813

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/JDavis

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