Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025

 - Medium to high chances for heat indices reaching 105 degrees
   this afternoon.

 - Low to medium chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees
   Friday through next Wednesday, with the highest chances next
   Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025

A well-defined swirl of mid-level clouds has been drifting
eastward across our northwest counties, indicative of an MCV
currently near the Walker/Jefferson county line. These clouds have
limited heating/destabilization in our northwest counties, but
have also kept dew points up. Highest chances for showers and
storms will be generally along and east of I-65 this afternoon due
to the presence of the MCV, while highest heat indices will be in
the western counties. A heat advisory remains in effect this
afternoon. The hot and humid conditions will contribute to MLCAPE
values of 3000 J/kg with mid-level lapse rates near 6 C/km
initially, resulting in strong storms. Moderate to high microburst
threat will be in our southeast counties where DCAPE values are
highest. The MCV also results in some pockets of effective shear
around 20-25kts. The aforementioned factors will result in a low
chances for an isolated severe storm this afternoon. With PWATs at
or above 2 inches, there will also be low chances for flooding.
The MCV may help some activity linger into the evening hours.
There will be medium chances for patchy fog overnight especially
in areas that receive rainfall.

On Saturday the MCV and associated trough will weaken an drift
southeastward, while a strong mid-level anticyclone will remain
over the Central CONUS. Northerly flow aloft will help to bring in
some drier air aloft, with reduced rain chances, highest in the
southeast. Dew points should mix a little more tomorrow. Coverage
of 105 degree heat indices does not appear high enough to extend
the heat advisory into Saturday, but will continue to monitor
especially if high temperatures trend upward in West Alabama.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025

Ridging persists across the central CONUS into early next week.
This will reduce rain chances and increase high temperatures
across Central Alabama. Heat indices will be approaching the 105
degree mark each day depending on dew point trends, with the
highest heat indices Tuesday and Wednesday. Eventually the ridge
retrogrades to the western CONUS with weak troughing over the
eastern CONUS. This will result in high temperatures trending
downward and rain chances trending upward.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025

Showers and storms will continue to develop this afternoon as a
disturbance moves through the area. Highest chances will be at
MGM/AUO/ASN with lowest chances at TCL. BHM/EET will be right on
the edge of the higher coverage so have a somewhat lower
confidence TEMPO there. Gusty winds and reduced visibilities can
be expected with any thunderstorm. Medium chances for MVFR fog
developing around sunrise tomorrow especially where rain falls
this afternoon, with low chances for IFR.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist summertime conditions will continue through the week, and
there are no fire weather concerns. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through early next
week. 20-foot winds will be from the west to southwest through
Friday before shifting to the north and northeast this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  93  72  93 /  20  20   0  10
Anniston    73  92  72  93 /  30  30  10  20
Birmingham  74  93  74  93 /  20  20   0  10
Tuscaloosa  74  95  75  95 /  20  20   0  20
Calera      74  93  74  93 /  30  20  10  20
Auburn      74  91  73  90 /  30  30  10  30
Montgomery  74  94  74  93 /  30  30  10  30
Troy        74  93  72  91 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Chilton-
Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-
Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-
Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker.

&&

SHORT TERM...32/JDavis
LONG TERM....32/JDavis
AVIATION...32/JDavis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1232 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-160845-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1232 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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