Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1205 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

 - A level 1 to 2 chance for strong to severe storms also exists
   in the forecast overnight, Sunday afternoon and Monday as
   additional clusters of showers and storms develops to the
   west/northwest and moves across Central Alabama. Damaging
   straight-line winds will be the main hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

Showers and storms have developed south of a frontal boundary and
will continue to move into the area from the northwest through the
overnight period. Looks like any severe storms should remain in
the western third of the area through overnight as we have seen
much of the area worked over this past afternoon. We have adjusted
the threat to the west through sunrise. This activity should move
through the area late morning. We could potentially see some
redevelopment in the afternoon across the southern two-thirds of
the area, with additional heating of the day. Look for a few
strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon into the evening
hours.

The next round of showers and storms will likely develop Monday
morning pre-dawn to our west/southwest and then slide through
the area during the morning. Once it clears out, we should heat
back and begin to see redevelop in the west by the afternoon and
then more showers and strong to severe storms through the early
evening. The northwest potentially may in the clear from the
afternoon storms, but will maintain some PoPs for uncertainties.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

Some lingering showers and storms will be possible in the
southeast early, then clearing as the front actually makes it
through the area. This will give way to a drier day on Tuesday and
much of the daytime hours on Wednesday. The next system will move
into the southwest late Wednesday afternoon with increasing rain
showers and storms Wednesday night into Thursday. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms look to be in place on Friday through
much of the next weekend. While chances are small right now, look
for a some strong storms at least for Friday with the potential
of marginally severe storms for the weekend, especially with
temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s by that time
frame.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

VFR conditions remain in place at this time. That will change in
the next few hours as showers and thunderstorms spread across the
region. MVFR conditions will be possible with passing convection
overnight into Sunday morning. Convection will clear most
terminals shortly after sunrise. MGM will be by roughly 15Z. A
secondary line of showers/storms is likely during the late morning
to afternoon hours. That one should move through pretty quickly.
While confidence is low, we could have some pop up afternoon
convection but dry air filtering in could help negate development.
Convection will diminish during the late afternoon hours.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED added to TCL after the storms moved through
this afternoon.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several days of rain and thunderstorms are expected for Central
AL. Min RHs will remain well above critical values. Winds will be
gusty in proximity to thunderstorm activity. Drier conditions
finally return on Tuesday and Wednesday with another period of
wetness Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  86  64  83 /  80  40  10  80
Anniston    69  84  67  83 /  80  60  10  80
Birmingham  71  85  67  83 /  80  50  10  80
Tuscaloosa  73  86  69  83 /  80  60  30  90
Calera      72  85  69  83 /  80  70  20  90
Auburn      73  83  69  83 /  60  80  30  80
Montgomery  75  86  69  86 /  70  80  40  90
Troy        74  88  69  87 /  50  80  60  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/Castillo

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
948 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-090600-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
948 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms for all of central
Alabama through 10 am Sunday. Threats include damaging straight-line
winds and quarter-size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms for all of central
Alabama Monday afternoon and evening. Threats include damaging
straight-line winds and quarter-size hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is needed
tonight through 10 am Sunday and again Monday afternoon and evening.

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