Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
137 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025

 - There is a low chance for severe storms during the afternoon
   and evening hours today, Sunday, and Monday. Damaging winds and
   large hail will be the primary threats.
 - An active weather pattern is expected through much of the
   upcoming week with a medium to high chance (50-80%) of
   thunderstorms each day. Some of these storms may become strong
   to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025

This afternoon.

A northwesterly flow pattern prevails aloft over the area with
shortwave ridging to our east over Georgia and East Tennessee and
more robust broad ridging over the Central Plains. A mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was over Southeast Arkansas with another
developing across East-Central Oklahoma as of this writing.
Coastal convection was ongoing across far Southwest Alabama and
this activity was moving northeast with time. Lingering showers
and some thunderstorms continued to move east across portions of
our northern counties where a surface front and convective outflow
boundaries have resulted in cooler temperatures. Over the past
two hours showers and storms have developed across portions of
Hale County and are slowly drifting northeast around 15 mph.

Expect showers and some thunderstorms to persist across our
northern counties through mid afternoon while shower and
thunderstorm activity will likely continue across portions of our
southwest counties and gradually move and develop further eastward
with time. Coastal convection to our far southwest will continue
to approach our southern counties and likely affect those areas
from mid to late afternoon. The convective system currently across
Arkansas will continue to move southeast with time and will
affect our western counties as early as late this afternoon and
into the evening hours. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary risks with this activity. High temperatures will range
from the upper 80s far north to readings in the lower 90s far
south. Winds will be from the east and northeast across the
northern portion of the area at 4-8 mph and from the southwest at
5-10 mph across the southern portion of the area.

Tonight.

A shortwave disturbance in the mid-levels will move southeast
over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and approach the area this
evening from the west. Expect the ongoing heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity across Arkansas and Mississippi to move
southeast into our western and central counties through the
evening. Some severe storms will be possible with damaging winds
and large hail being the main risks. The extent of strong to
severe storms will depend on how much destabilization can occur in
areas that are currently or previously experienced shower and
thunderstorm activity today. Expect this activity to continue
moving east-southeast across the area overnight with greatest
potential for late night showers and some storms across our far
east and southeast counties. Winds will be from the east to
southeast at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower
60s far north to readings near 70 far southeast.

Sunday.

Overnight activity will become increasingly confined to the far
east and southeast counties through early morning with partly to
mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. A stationary front will remain
draped across the area from west to east through the day as
another mid-level disturbance is progged to move over the Mid-
South region late morning and approach from the northwest later in
the day. Expect increasing chances for showers and some
thunderstorms as early as late morning and expanding through the
afternoon hours generally from the northwest. Some severe storms
will again be possible due to sufficient instability with
sufficient wind shear to support storm organization and longevity.
Winds will be from the southwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures
will range from the lower 80s northeast to the lower 90s far
south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025

No significant changes with this long term forecast update. An
unsettled pattern with moderate to high chances for showers and
thunderstorms continuing daily. Rainfall amounts through the week
will generally range from 2-4" with the highest amounts across our
northwestern areas.

95/Castillo

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025

An active weather pattern is expected to continue for Memorial
Day and through all of the upcoming week.

A generally westerly flow regime will remain in place through the
week with several shortwaves moving through the region. Each of
these shortwaves will provide the forcing for thunderstorms along a
stalled frontal boundary through Central AL. This won't be a washout
of a week, though rain/thunderstorm chances will remain high through
much of the time, including the overnight hours. Rather, I would
expect breaks in between the waves of thunderstorms, but it's
uncertain what time of day those breaks will occur.

With each of these waves, we'll need to monitor for the potential
for strong to severe storms. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will
be the primary concerns. For now, we have a marginal risk (level 1
out of 5) for severe thunderstorms in the forecast for Monday given
steep lapse rates and the increased instability. I wouldn't be
surprised to see subsequent days in the week to have at least a
low risk included once we have a bit more confidence in the timing
for each wave since the overall synoptic pattern doesn't change
significantly through the period.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025

Increasing clouds will expand southeast over the area with time
as showers with some thunderstorms develop and move into the area
from the northwest while more scattered activity over Coastal
Southwest Alabama moves northeast toward our southwest and south-
central counties through the afternoon hours. Expect chances for
showers and some thunderstorms with best potential across the
northern sites this afternoon then the better potential looks to
be across the eastern sites across the north and MGM south as
lingering activity continues past sunset and gradually moves
further southeast with time. Lingering showers with overcast
conditions are likely overnight before another round of showers
and storms looks to approach the area from the northwest during
the morning hours on Sunday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain and thunderstorm chances increase today with a low to
moderate chance of severe storms. Wet pattern will continue
through much of the upcoming week. Min RHs look to settle into the
50-60% range daily through the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  84  64  84 /  60  70  50  80
Anniston    64  84  67  84 /  60  60  50  80
Birmingham  65  86  67  84 /  80  70  50  80
Tuscaloosa  66  89  70  87 /  80  70  40  80
Calera      65  87  69  86 /  70  60  40  70
Auburn      67  87  70  86 /  50  40  30  60
Montgomery  68  90  70  89 /  50  40  20  50
Troy        69  90  70  91 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....95/Castillo
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
302 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-251115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
302 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There is a marginal and slight risk (levels 1 and 2 of 5) for severe
weather this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail
will be the primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a marginal and slight risk (levels 1 and 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms on Sunday, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
Monday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concern on
both days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today, Sunday, and Monday.

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