Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1050 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 AM CST THU FEB 28 2025

 - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Tuesday
   night into Wednesday morning for all of Central Alabama.
   Threats include damaging straight-line winds and tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 706 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025

I don't foresee any substantial changes will be needed to the
ongoing forecast for tonight. Clear skies and dry conditions will
continue.

/61/

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2025

A pleasant day is unfolding across Central Alabama this afternoon
as clear skies allow us to warm up nicely into the low to mid
70s. The main concern in the short term will continue to be the
potential for fire weather concerns. Drier air in place today will
allow for RH values to fall into the 20-25% range for most of the
region. However, winds will remain light today which should help
limit concerns. A weak, dry cold front will move through the
region tomorrow, which will help keep the dry air in place. After
recovering back into the 70s, RHs fall back into the 20-30% range
Saturday. Winds will be a bit stronger than today but should
remain below criteria. With that said, there is a medium to high
chance of occasional gusts from 15-20 MPH. Held off on any fire
weather related products for now as confidence is fairly low.
Otherwise, lows tonight drop into the 40s areawide. Highs tomorrow
range from the low 60s across our northern counties to the mid
70s further south.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025

Cooler and stable conditions are expected for the first part of the
week as the dry front departs to the east. The more potent system
will develop to our west on Tuesday as a high amplitude trough
deepens over the Central Plains. Dynamics are quite impressive with
this system, and a robust line of thunderstorms with severe
weather risk will develop to our west Tuesday afternoon. Timing
on the line into Central Alabama still looks to be Tuesday night
through early Wednesday morning. Global models and forecast
soundings continue to indicate some potential limitations with
thermodynamics and weak instability, so a level 2 out of 5 severe
risk still seems appropriate at this time with a risk for damaging
straight-line winds and line-embedded tornadoes. We will begin to
get a better handle on more specific details within the coming
days. A brief period of dry and mild weather is expected behind
this system, but the pattern looks to remain active towards the
end of the week.

86/Martin

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2025

Cooler air will arrive behind Saturday's dry frontal passage with
a light freeze expected across north Alabama Sunday morning. Fair
weather will persist through the rest of the day with sunshine
and high temperatures in the 50s most areas.

Increased cloudiness is forecast for Monday and Tuesday, associated
with a moisture envelope along the subtropical jet. There remains
a low (20%) chance for showers Monday/Monday night for parts of
the area as a weak shortwave trough skirts across.

The trough located south of Alaska today is the feature that will
bring a threat of severe storms next week. This trough is expected
to move across the Plains on Tuesday with an intensifying jet
structure and developing surface low near the Kansas/Oklahoma
border. Given surface ridging along the East Coast, a tightening
pressure gradient will result in breezy and gusty southerly winds
around 15 mph sustained with gusts upwards of 30 mph through the
course of the day and night.

A blossoming area of showers and thunderstorms to our west is
likely to evolve into a squall line/QLCS and then affect our area
sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Strong wind shear
should promote instances of damaging straight-line winds and line-
embedded rotation with tornado potential. The extent of these
threats will hinge on the northward extent of sufficient
moisture/dew points and related instability. At this time,
guidance indicates a medium chance for a couple J/kg of CAPE
(instability) right ahead of the line of storms, at least for
parts of the area. In all, this supports a risk for severe
storms, holding at a level 2 out of 5 with this update.

Nice weather then returns for a couple of days as high pressure
overspreads the region. Another system may affect the Gulf Coast
just beyond the end of the 7-day forecast.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025

Still essentially a wind forecast for central Alabama aviation
interests through the next 24 hours, with clear skies expected to
continue.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values on Friday will be in the upper teens to low 20s areawide,
but winds will be less, generally 5-8 mph, with gusts to 10 mph on
the ridges. Another bout of dry air will enter Saturday night with
RH values in the 20s on Sunday areawide, although winds are expected
to remain light. Monday conditions will be very similar as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     44  64  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    44  66  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  46  66  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  44  69  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      44  68  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      44  71  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  44  74  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        44  75  39  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION.../61/

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
323 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-011230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
323 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning across all of central Alabama. Threats
include damaging straight-line winds and tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.