Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
256 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 251 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

- There is a (Level 1 to 3 out of 5) risk of severe storms on
  Tuesday evening for portions of Central Alabama. The best
  chances will be generally along and northwest of the Interstate
  85 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

Middle May weather continues, with nightly MCS showers and storms.
Current IR indicates some rapid cooling tops as the MCS moves into
northern MS. Right now just a few showers and storms, but consensus
and guidance is that this will increase over the next few hours.
This correlates with the actual trends on going this hour. Went
ahead and increased PoPs toward daybreak and the first part of the
day. Questions for today will be two fold. Will the activity this
morning be strong/severe? And if the MCS does move through, will we
recover for any severe this afternoon? As mentioned, given the
expansive cooling cloud tops would expected some increase in overall
coverage over the next few hours. That would put an increase in rain
chances into the likely and categorical stages this morning. We did
get worked over nicely 24 hours ago, but there is still plenty of
instability to support at least a few stronger storms this morning
with the activity. Will not mention any severe this morning, but
will definitely monitor the radar trends. So if the activity moves
through this morning as expected now, will severe weather be
possible this afternoon. Well I can say that while it can not be
ruled out, the probabilities appear too low after 1 pm to mention
severe weather. Again this is a very conditional threat across
the area. If the MCS does not develop or spread across the area
with widespread coverage then yes a few afternoon storms could
develop, especially in the south.

Tonight we could see a shower or storm early in the south, but then
activity focuses west and north of the ares. We will likely see
another MCS develop overnight. Model trends right now keep the
majority of the rain north of the area, so I have limited rain
chances in the forecast.

The showers and storms should be limited to the north on Tuesday
closer to the MCS north of the area. Best chances of rain Monday
will be in the northeast.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

A cold front will approach Central Alabama on Tuesday evening, with
a threat of severe thunderstorms across the region. With dew points
in the low 70s, supercell formation is likely during the afternoon
across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee. This is likely to grow
upscale into a more linear storm mode as it passes through Central
Alabama, posing a damaging wind threat. Hail and an isolated tornado
will be possible as well, with a bigger threat of hail initially
with more cellular activity. Current timing is still broad but is
potentially late evening to overnight Tuesday night for much of the
area.

Behind the cold front, the rest of the week will be dry, with
surface high pressure in place. Temperatures will be cooler, with
most areas in the 70s to near 80 Thursday and Friday. Rain chances
will return across the north by the weekend.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

Made some adjustments to the TAFs for this cycle. Going to
concentrate more on the showers and storms developing this morning
and less this afternoon. Conditions should be very similar to last
night but a few hours later and most likely not as strong. Added
in tempo TSRA at the northern sites but not at MGM. Added only
SHRA there. Looks like the afternoon will not be as widespread so
removed the Prob30 from all sites but MGM for now. So morning
flights will need to be monitored for thunderstorms before and
after sunrise.

NOTE: There is a communication issue at ANB, so will include AMD
NOT SKED here until we see any resolve.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another batch showers and thunderstorms will move through this
morning, with isolated to scattered this afternoon. Minimum RH
values on this afternoon and Monday will be in mid to upper 40
percent range across portions of the southeast and far southern
counties. Dry conditions return Wednesday after a strong system
moves through on Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  66  88  67 /  70  20  30  10
Anniston    83  66  88  69 /  80  20  20   0
Birmingham  84  69  88  70 /  80  20  10   0
Tuscaloosa  87  70  89  72 /  60  20   0   0
Calera      86  69  89  70 /  70  20   0   0
Auburn      84  69  88  69 /  60  10   0   0
Montgomery  88  68  91  69 /  30  10   0   0
Troy        89  68  91  69 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...16

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