Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
540 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible late
  this afternoon and into tonight. The main hazards will be
  very large hail up to the size of tennis balls, damaging wind
  gusts to 80 mph, and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two
  is possible along the I-94 corridor from around Bismarck to
  Jamestown.

- There is a marginal outlook for severe weather both Saturday
  and Sunday. Cooler and breezy conditions are expected Sunday.

- The active weather pattern continues, with additional chances
  for showers and thunderstorms next week along with
  temperatures trending cooler.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

21Z surface analysis shows a low pressure near the ND/SD/MT border
intersection with an eastward extending warm front and northeastward
extending stationary front. The air mass to the north of the
stationary front is much drier and more stable as indicated by lower
to mid 50s dewpoints and a field of billow clouds with very limited
vertical growth per satellite imagery. Recent observed soundings
from Bismarck and New England via the ICECHIP research group show
modest residual mixed layer capping with CAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg.
Kinematics are very impressive though, with 0-6 km shear around 55
kts and long hodographs with strong concavity in the lowest 1-3 km.
The New England hodograph would suggest a higher potential for
streamwise vorticity that could locally support tornadogenesis
with any discrete storm. However, severe storms ongoing in
southeast Montana as of this writing are already showing signs
of clustering, but remain semi-discrete. As long as storms
remain at least semi- discrete, very large hail and tornadoes
will be the primary hazard. But as soon as upscale growth occurs
and transitions storm mode to linear, we could be looking at an
intense bow echo/QLCS with +80 mph gusts and a few brief
embedded tornadoes given 0-3 km shear around 30-40 kts, DCAPE
around 1500 J/kg, and low level SR inflow opposing mean storm
motion.

Between 7 and 9 PM CDT, several CAMs suggest robust convection along
and between the Highway 200 and Interstate 94 corridors in response
to increasing low level warm air advection/moisture transport.
Despite shear/deep layer wind vector orientation parallel to the
boundary, there may be a short window for discrete storms that could
also pose a very large hail and tornado threat. But confidence on
storms initializing prior to the arrival of the anticipated stronger
linear complex arriving in central North Dakota later this evening
is low to medium at best.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Currently, broad upper level ridge anchored just east of the
Great Plains today, with ridging over eastern North Dakota and
southwest flow aloft across the western Dakotas.

An elevated Severe Weather risk remains for much of western and
central North Dakota this afternoon and evening, with robust
CAPE and wind shear. Height falls will start to spread across
the western Dakotas later this afternoon and evening as a mid
level S/WV lifts northeast into the region. CAMs have been
fluctuating the past several hours, but it appears a more likely
scenario is for convection initializing across southeast
Montana/southwestern North Dakota just ahead of the wave, then
moving/propagating east-northeast into western and central ND
by around and after 22-23z or so, along to just north of a west
to east orientated warm front. Noticed a CU field flaring up in
southeast MT the past hour. The chances for initial discrete
convection over south central and southeastern ND appears
minimal with BUFKIT sounding analysis indicating a rather stout
capping inversion. At the same time, hodographs south central
and southeast along the warm front continue to depict favorable
shear/helicity highly favorable for rotating storms and possible
tornadoes, especially if convection remains discrete and lasts
into the evening when hodographs become even more supportive of
strong low level rotation. But, as mentioned, CAMs support
convective initialization southwest, morphing into a wind threat
if bowing lines form. Will need to monitor closely for storm
mode through the evening as anything sfc based south
central/southeast could become problematic.

Models take storms quickly east out of our area by around 06z
tonight, though another embedded wave may lead to additional
thunderstorm activity west overnight and into Saturday morning.
A few elevated strong to severe storms could be possible with
this activity as MUCAPE is forecast to still range from 1000 to
2000 J/kg with deep layer shear remaining robust up to 60
knots. These storms may continue or re-develop into Sat
afternoon across the north along an instability gradient but are
favored to remain elevated in nature. Large hail would likely
be the main threat with this activity but a few damaging wind
gusts would also be possible. Instability on Saturday is much
stronger further south, but limited forcing and capping should
keep convection from developing there.

Strong southwest flow aloft on Sunday with multiple embedded
S/WVs moving through in flow aloft will maintain a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Despite cooler conditions and less
CAPE, cannot rule out a marginal risk (via SPC) for a few
strong storms with 0-6km shear ranging from 50-75 kts. Any CAPE
will be decreasing from west to east though, so any robust
storms would have to be within the trailing instability
corridor.

Upper trough over the western CONUS next week will maintain
southwest flow aloft and an active weather pattern. Temperatures
trend cooler Sunday and onwards, with continued chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms each day. Windy conditions also
for Sunday as the initial cold front moves through the general
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected through the period but a
complex or two of intense thunderstorms may develop late this
afternoon and into tonight. While exact placement and timing of
these storms are still uncertain, we will message the potential
using PROB30 groups at all sites, generally in the 23z Friday
through 06z Saturday time frame (earlier west and later in the
east). The strongest storms could produce hail to the size of
tennis balls, wind gusts to 80 mph, and possibly a few
tornadoes. LIFR to MVFR visibilities will be possible under any
heavier storms that move directly overhead. Some models then
show fog potential for Sat morning, and will take a closer look
at this.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

MESOSCALE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
302 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

NDZ010>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-212015-
Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-
Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
302 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 /202 PM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
tonight. Very large hail up to tennis ball size, damaging winds to
80 mph, and a few tornadoes are all possible. A couple of
tornadoes could become strong along the Interstate 94 corridor
from around Bismarck to Jamestown. Stay tuned for updates.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service at 701-223-4582.

NDZ001>005-009-212015-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-
302 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Very large hail up to tennis ball size, damaging winds to 70 mph,
and a tornado or two are all possible. Stay tuned for updates.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service at 701-223-4582.

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
142 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NE Woodworth          47.17N 99.25W
06/19/2025  M57 MPH          Stutsman           ND   Mesonet

            NDAWN weather station recorded a 10 meter
            wind gust of 57 mph.

0722 PM     Tornado          7 N Schefield           46.78N 102.87W
06/19/2025                   Stark              ND   Local Official

            Tornado reported on the ground southwest of
            Dickinson.

0724 PM     Tornado          6 NNW Schefield         46.75N 102.91W
06/19/2025                   Stark              ND   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Manager reports tornado damage
            near 117th Ave SW and 44th St SW south about
            a mile to 117th Ave SW and 46th St SW.
            Damage includes two houses with roofs
            partially blown off. 20ft tree damaged
            mainly with 8 inch diameter branch snapped
            off. Fence down. Some siding ripped off. And
            two power poles down by the southern area of
            damage. Also noted a lot of damage from
            large hail.

0635 PM     Hail             4 S South Fairfield     47.07N 103.20W
06/19/2025  E2.50 Inch       Billings           ND   Public

            Relayed from public. Time estimated from
            radar.

0653 PM     Hail             5 NNE Belfield          46.95N 103.16W
06/19/2025  E1.00 Inch       Stark              ND   Public

            Belfield NDAWN station camera.

0715 PM     Hail             South Heart             46.86N 102.99W
06/19/2025  E2.00 Inch       Stark              ND   Public

            Report from skyspy photos. Time estimated
            from radar.

0720 PM     Hail             4 WSW Dickinson         46.86N 102.87W
06/19/2025  M1.75 Inch       Stark              ND   Public

            Relayed through broadcast media. Time
            estimated from radar.

0723 PM     Hail             6 NNW Schefield         46.75N 102.91W
06/19/2025  E2.50 Inch       Stark              ND   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Manager reported 2.5 inch hail 45
            minutes after hail fell. Also noted a lot of
            window and siding damage. About 20 to 30
            windows damaged on north and east side of
            area homes. Noted a lot of vehicle damage.
            Time estimated.

0723 PM     Hail             2 NNW Dickinson         46.90N 102.81W
06/19/2025  M1.75 Inch       Stark              ND   Public

            Hail began at 723 CDT and lasted two
            minutes. Hail from the size of quarters to a
            few golf ball sized stones.

0730 PM     Hail             Dickinson               46.88N 102.79W
06/19/2025  M2.00 Inch       Stark              ND   Public

            Photo relayed through broadcast media.

0740 PM     Hail             7 NE Schefield          46.75N 102.75W
06/19/2025  E2.75 Inch       Stark              ND   Public

            Report from skyspy photos. Time estimated
            from radar.

0745 PM     Hail             7 NNE Schefield         46.77N 102.79W
06/19/2025  M3.00 Inch       Stark              ND   Public

            Report from skyspy photos.

0830 PM     Hail             11 ESE Lefor            46.61N 102.34W
06/19/2025  M2.00 Inch       Hettinger          ND   Public

            Report from skyspy photos. Time estimated
            from radar.

0915 PM     Hail             2 SSW New Leipzig       46.34N 101.96W
06/19/2025  M1.10 Inch       Grant              ND   Trained Spotter

            Report from ICECHIP Research Project.

0918 PM     Hail             3 W New Leipzig         46.37N 102.01W
06/19/2025  M1.00 Inch       Grant              ND   Public

            MPING report of large hail.

1007 PM     Hail             17 SW Saint Gertrude    46.08N 101.54W
06/19/2025  E1.25 Inch       Grant              ND   Public

            Report from skyspy photos.

1040 PM     Hail             9 NNE Burnstad          46.51N 99.56W
06/19/2025  M1.00 Inch       Logan              ND   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from 9 NNE
            Burnstad for time. Relayed from NWS
            employee.

&&

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