Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
814 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather is possible through tonight, with
  very large hail up to the size of baseballs, damaging winds as
  high as 80 mph, and a few tornadoes.

- The risk for scattered severe storms shifts into far eastern
  North Dakota on Friday, with isolated severe storms still
  possible over most of western and central North Dakota.

- Temperatures cool on Friday and through the weekend with 70s
  and lower 80s expected through the weekend.

- The threat for severe weather will remain low through the
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for western and much
of central North Dakota until 3 AM CDT / 2 AM MDT. Severe storms
in the northwest are projected to expand to the southeast
through the evening and into overnight, with additional storms
upstream in eastern Montana, southeast of Glasgow, as well as
even further back east of Billings. Although a tornado cannot be
ruled out, especially the QLCS / spinup variety, primary hazard
will be large hail with any initial, discrete cells, and if
storms grow upscale as expected, primary hazard will be
significant wind gusts, with scattered gusts potentially as high
as 90 mph.

UPDATE
Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Severe weather has not progressed quite as expected to start the
evening. There has been just enough of a cap across the majority
of western and central North Dakota to prevent convection,
although for a few hours now we have seen cumulus trying to
grow, with numerous orphan anvils observed on satellite. Current
main area of development is in the northwest part of the state,
where mesoanalysis advertises around 45 knots of deep layer
shear and ~1300 J/kg of instability, although thinking the storm
is still a little elevated. Some signs of expansion to the
southwest, back into Montana. Thinking there is a low (20
percent chance) of an isolated supercell or two across central
North Dakota outside of any activity across the north, before
attention turns to the convection ongoing further upstream
across Montana. One area of storms is south of Glasgow and an
additional one is in the Billings area. If these progress as
forecast, the expectation is storms would become more linear in
nature and speed up as they approach the state line. With no
storms over most of the forecast area today, the environment
remains highly supportive of severe weather, potentially
significant, with wind gusts up to 80 mph the primary hazard.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Latest satellite imagery is showing a shortwave tracking from
northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota. Another strong
shortwave is tracking eastward across southwest Montana. Latest
radar shows the morning convection has for the most part, moved
north into Canada. A short segment of likely elevated is
located over far northeast Montana. The latest surface analysis
shows a surface low in the Mondak region with a warm front
extending northeastward from the low, into northeast ND. The
area north of the surface low, around west central ND looks to
be an area of significant low level convergence. Latest
satellite also indicates approaching cirrus which implies
increased ascent, and increased agitation in the cu field in the
McKenzie, Dunn, Golden Valley and Billings county area. It's
looking more and more like this could be the area of initial CI
in our area.

Needless to say, nothing has changed in the ingredients area.
Still very unstable air with strong deep layer shear. Not going
to repeat this again, except to say that all of our earlier
significant threats remain in the table (Baseball sized hail,
80 mph winds and a few tornados possible).

A major concern is the storm mode and the storm mode evolution
today and tonight. Short term models have been inconsistent. As
mentioned above, in our area, the west central looks like the
preferred area of CI. Cams seem to favor, and WOFS also hints at
a potential supercell that tracks east from here, remaining
north of the I-94 corridor. This would favor very large hail and
a possible tornadic supercell. Ingredients are there for that
scenario.

Another possible scenario would be quicker upscale growth from
initial CI and a linear complex developing. This scenario has
shown two main tendencies. One would be more of a due east
track of a complex, which would leave the more pristine
atmosphere in southern ND, untouched, and primed for a second
round of convection eminating from Montana. Although there is
some indication of more capping along the South Dakota border.

A second scenario from a quicker upscale growth perspective
would be a more southeast progression as the cold pool pushes
southward, this may take the complex south of the I-94 corridor,
and more importantly, could alter the highly unstable airmass
over southern ND, possibly limiting the potential for a complex
entering from Montana later this evening, or overnight. Cams
earlier today were showing the detriment of a storm complex from
Montana as it progresses through western ND.

If the initial development remains mainly discrete, as
mentioned above, this could alter the pristine environment over
southern ND somewhat, but we think it would leave enough
instability that the later convection entering from Montana
would have enough fuel to continue it's track across North
Dakota, at least western and central ND.

Of course, what eventually happens will probably be something
else, or a combination of these scenarios. We will continue to
update Social Media content through the event so continue to
monitor for our latest thinking of how this event will
eventually unfold.

The potential for strong to severe convection remains on Friday,
but there has been a pretty significant change. The Enhanced
risk, that extended as far west as the James River Valley has
been downgraded. There is a slight risk now in this area, with a
marginal risk for severe storms over much of western and central
ND. There will likely be some strong to severe convection in
western and central ND, but the potential for a more organized
event has diminished over our area for the time being.
Atmosphere may be pretty well worked over in our area with
convection behind a surface boundary. We'll see how things
evolve after today and tonight.

Once we see an end of the convection on Friday it does look like
we will see a break in the severe convection, at least through
the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures cool
into mainly the 70s through the weekend before climbing again
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Convection will be moving through the forecast area through the
first half of the TAF period, likely impacting much of western
and central ND. It's possible there could be more than one round
of thunderstorms but for now kept things simple with just one
period of Thunderstorms at each site. With any storms
tonight, some will be severe, with very large hail and
destructive winds possible. Any storm could also produce IFR to
LIFR visibility from torrential rainfall. Late tonight into
Friday morning there is a pretty good signal for quite a bit of
low stratus/fog across the forecast area. Some improvement in
ceilings is expected Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Jones

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
637 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>046-082345-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
637 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 /537 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon through tonight. Significant severe weather is possible,
with very large hail up to the size of baseballs, damaging winds
as high as 80 mph, and a few tornadoes. Localized excessive
rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday, with hail as
large as quarters and wind gusts as high as 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to the
National Weather Service at 701-223-4582 or to our social media
pages.

NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-082345-
Foster-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
637 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon through tonight. Significant severe weather is possible,
with very large hail up to the size of baseballs, damaging winds
as high as 80 mph, and a few tornadoes. Localized excessive
rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday. Expected
hazards include hail as large as golf balls, damaging winds up to
60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to the
National Weather Service at 701-223-4582 or to our social media
pages.

MEJ

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