High Wind Watch 3, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
109 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds on Monday.

- Isolated to scattered showers tonight through Monday night.

- Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures expected today
  through mid week, followed by a warming trend to above normal late
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Limited updates needed again this early afternoon. The newest
NBM was loaded into the forecast. Light rain showers are now
possible in the northwest starting this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 950 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Limited updates needed this morning. The Freeze Warning has
been expired as temperatures warm post-sunrise.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Limited updates needed this morning. A few high clouds are
starting to enter into western North Dakota. Otherwise most
areas within the Freeze Warning are experiencing at or below
freezing temperatures. Overall the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Weak ridge moving across the state today has lessened winds and
brought colder temperatures. Areas with light to calm winds are
seeing temperatures at or below freezing, while areas with a
light west wind remain above freezing. Overall Freeze Warning
covering the colder areas nicely at the moment, and will let
continue through mid morning. This ridge moves eastward today
bringing a warming southerly flow to the area today. Look for
highs near normal in the 50s to lower 60s. Southwest flow with
warm air advection aloft could increase clouds this afternoon,
and perhaps bring a few showers in the northwest. Tonight, the
first in a series of lows and weak fronts will move across the
state. This will shift winds to the west and bring chances for
mainly rain showers from west to east. With increased cloud
cover, lows tonight will generally be in the mid 30s to lower
40s. A second low and secondary push of cold air then brings
chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Monday through
Monday night. Weak instability and somewhat steep mid level
lapse rates could provide for an isolated thunderstorm Monday as
well. However, the main concern for Monday is the potential for
strong northwest winds. Most models have strong 850 to 700 mb
winds by Monday afternoon, with decent lapse rates to mix these
winds to the surface. However, HREF ensemble data show max winds
in the advisory range. This could be from timing on the best
pressure rises and cold air advection remaining somewhat
uncertain during this time period. Abundant cloud cover may also
hurt mixing on Monday. Given this uncertainty, confidence was
not high enough to issue a wind highlight on this shift.
Although, areas south and west of the Missouri River have the
greatest potential of seeing winds gusting over 60 MPH if these
stronger winds can make it to the surface. Something to monitor
going forward. Showers with breezy to strong winds could then
linger through Monday night. Depending on timing of cold air and
lingering showers, perhaps some light snow may mix in at times.
Highs on Monday will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, while lows
Monday night will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Surface ridge
then looks to build in on Tuesday, gradually diminishing winds
from west to east although some breezy winds may linger in the
east through the day. Mainly dry conditions are expected, with
cooler highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Mostly clear conditions
will then be found Tuesday night with lows in the 20s. Of note,
Freeze products are slated to end October 20th, thus freezing
temperatures Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday night into
Wednesday would not require a Freeze Warning.

Wednesday through late week, mainly dry conditions are still
forecast. A warming trend is also forecast, although NBM
temperatures today are not as high as recent forecasts. A
warming trend still remains in the spreads, yet the spreads
still remain large. The discretion is likely due to uncertainty
with an upper level ridge forecast to move over the region mid
to late week. While some of the warmer clusters build this ridge
overhead, others flatten it quicker or linger slightly cooler
northwest flow in the area. Either way most solutions showing
near to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures, with mainly
dry conditions. Sub freezing temperatures may also be found each
morning through Thursday, with NBM forecasting highs above
freezing later in the week. This is consistent with the NBM
spreads in temperatures as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

VFR CIGs through the period. Rain showers will expand west to
east this evening through the overnight. Winds will turn to the
northwest overnight and become breezy. Monday winds will
increase and could gust near 45kts, especially in the
southwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Monday to midnight CDT
/11 PM MDT/ Monday night for NDZ001>005-010>013-019>023-025-
034>037-046>048-050-051.
High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
NDZ009-017-018-031>033-040>045.

&&

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1247 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-201800-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1247 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 /1147 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong northwest winds are expected on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.