Tornado Warning 14, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
644 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal system sweeping through the region will bring periods
of rain to Central NY and Northeast PA through Thursday evening.
High pressure will return partly to mostly sunny conditions
this weekend. Next week, high pressure will settle overhead with
dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Periods of heavy rain will impact the region today. Forecast
soundings are indicating CAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg across the
southern Catskills and Poconos, with the highest instability
likely staying off to our southeast along the Mid Atlantic
Coast. The severe threat will be low, but the sounding profiles
are quite moist. Models are showing anomalous PWATs at around
1.75". The dry antecedent conditions should prevent us from
having any flooding issues, even with a widespread 1 to 2 inches
of rain and localized higher amounts. River and smaller stream
response will be slow to this rainfall, but if some training
occurs, can't rule out some minor issues in poor drainage areas
and urban ponding in common low lying areas.

Upper trough will push into western NY Friday morning. Although
broad scale synoptic drying appears to take shape in the models,
can't rule out an isolated shower on Friday with the upper
trough and NW Flow across the Great Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front and upper trough exit the region by early Saturday
morning. High pressure builds in Saturday with dry and warm
conditions. NBM is bring some low chance PoPs in across NE PA,
but these are likely well overdone. For now, going to leave NBM
PoPs as is for now, as model guidance is still unsure how far
north cut off upper low will track. Consensus at this time has
it staying well south of the region, so if this trend continues
then the rain chances will be lowered for this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The bulk of ensemble data shows high pressure building into the
region with a fairly quiet period through next week. Above
normal temperatures and dry conditions should persist through at
least mid week. At this time, models are keeping tropical systems
moving through the Western Atlantic and staying well away from
the mainland U.S. Model consensus is for ridging over the
northeast with troughing over the Canadian Maritimes. This
pattern should favor keeping these tropical systems well out to
sea. Overall confidence in this period is still low and at the
very least we'll have to be closely monitoring the track of
tropical moisture plumes extending northward from these systems.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain showers continue across the area today. MVFR/Fuel alt
restrictions are expected across much of the area with these
rain showers. Periodic IFR conditions will be possible at
AVP/BGM/ITH this morning as heavier showers move over the
terminals. A cold front moving through the region this afternoon
will bring a slight chance for thunderstorms at AVP between 22z
and 00z. This front will kick the rain out of the area by mid
evening. Low ceilings and patchy fog will remain across the area
tonight. Confidence is not very high about widespread IFR
conditions tonight as it looks like winds may remain active, but
it is high enough to include IFR restrictions at BGM/ELM/ITH.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAB/MPK
NEAR TERM...JAB/MPK
SHORT TERM...JAB/MPK
LONG TERM...MPK/MWG
AVIATION...JTC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
305 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-PAZ038-260715-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-
305 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-260715-
Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
305 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as a
cold front pushes through the region. There will also be periods of
heavy rainfall which could lead to ponding of water in commonly
flooded low lying areas. Small stream flash flooding and river
flooding is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
827 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 AM     Rain             Corning                 42.14N 77.06W
09/25/2025  M1.70 Inch       Steuben            NY   Trained Spotter

            0.9 fell overnight, with 0.8 inches
            yesterday.

&&

AJG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1044 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 AM     Rain             1 WSW Delhi             42.28N 74.93W
09/25/2025  M1.17 Inch       Delaware           NY   Trained Spotter

            24 hour rain total.

&&

AJG