Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Binghamton, NY

357 
WGUS71 KBGM 311240
FFSBGM

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
840 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

NYC105-PAC103-127-311250-
/O.EXP.KBGM.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250531T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sullivan NY-Pike PA-Wayne PA-
840 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 845 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR 
SULLIVAN, CENTRAL PIKE AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4188 7546 4181 7516 4201 7476 4188 7445
      4175 7458 4165 7440 4159 7436 4157 7442
      4151 7448 4149 7476 4143 7475 4143 7474
      4140 7474 4139 7472 4136 7469 4135 7475
      4129 7483 4118 7488 4133 7509 4152 7543

$$

BTL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
257 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system with rain moves off east coast this
morning. Gusty winds and cool conditions are expected through
the weekend before high pressure builds into the region on
Monday, bringing much warmer weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM Update...

Deepening low pressure will track off New Jersey early this
morning and over Long Island. The deformation zone/comma head of
this system will pivot over NE PA and into the southern
Catskills. This region will produce persistent moderate to heavy
rainfall through early this morning, before pushing east of the
region later this morning. Rainfall rates will be a half inch
and an inch per hour across this area for a 4 to 6 hour period
through 12Z this morning. Rainfall totals will approach 3 - 6
hour flash flood guidance across NE PA and into Sullivan County
NY and flash flooding will be possible. The area of most concern
will be across Sullivan County, due to the steeper slopes of
Catskills producing high runoff rates. However, rainfall totals
will likely have to exceed 1.5 to 2 inches in this area before
we start to minor flooding issues popping up. Definitely
something to watch over the next hours.

The low deepens this morning and a tight pressure gradient
forms producing with strong late season synoptic winds,
especially east of I-81. Gust of 25 to 30 mph is likely with
even a few gusts over 30 mph possible in the Mohawk Valley and
higher elevations of the Catskills. Strong cold air advection
will lead to falling temperatures this afternoon with
precipitation becoming more showery in nature.

Low pressure exits later tonight, however, NW flow and cold air
advection will keep lake effect shower chances going through the
day on Sunday. High temperatures Sunday will remain cool, with
most of the region only topping out in the mid to upper 50s and
low 60s will be possible further south in the Wyoming Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Update...

Broad upper level low in Canada sends another shortwave into the
region on Sunday. This feature continues to progress over the region
through Sunday night keeping a slight chance of showers in the
forecast. Overnight temperatures remain cool with lows in the
mid 40s. Shower chances are then expected to gradually diminish
heading into early Monday morning as this feature slides east.
Northwest flow holds on Monday as the upper trough remains over
the area. Otherwise drier conditions are expected to start off
the week as high pressure will be in control. Cool temperatures
remain in place with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s by
afternoon. GFS attempts to bring in another shortwave Monday
night ahead of the building ridge, but showers may have a hard
time materializing with high pressure in place. The Euro and
Canadian keep conditions dry ahead of the ridge. Temperatures
overnight fall into the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 AM Update...

Pattern finally shifts as an upper level ridge builds into the
northeast on Tuesday. This will allow warm air to advect into the
region with temperatures returning to the mid 70s to low 80s by
Tuesday afternoon. Pattern continues into Wednesday with even warmer
temperatures expected, highs will climb into the 80s areawide.
Mostly sunny skies are anticipated for both Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure holds. A cold front then approaches the area from the
midwest by Thursday/Friday, but timing is uncertain therefore
stuck with NBM. Behind this cold front, cooler conditions are
expected (closer to normal for this time of the year).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will turn to MVFR from south to north overnight
and periods of IFR with heavy rain will be possible at BGM and
AVP. Wind flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere will be
out of the NW, so IFR restrictions due to ceilings will likely
occur at ITH/BGM/SYR/RME, as lake enhanced moisture combines
with the synoptic moisture from the surface low that will track
across the eastern portion of the region. ELM usually stays
above IFR in NW flow, however, due to the abundant low level
moisture from recent rainfall, decided to take ELM to IFR as
well through the morning hours. IFR restrictions should start
between 8-12z and last at least into the late morning hours.
The surface low will lift to the NE of the area by the early
afternoon, which will push cooler and drier air into the region
from the NW. Lake enhanced showers will remain, but coverage
will be much more isolated.

Outlook...

Sunday...Low pressure leaving with lowering chances of showers
and restrictions.

Monday into Wednesday...Mostly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC/MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
518 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-072-010930-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-
Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Southern Wayne-
518 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ062-PAZ048-010930-
Sullivan-Pike-
518 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Moderate to heavy rainfall early this morning could lead to some
minor flooding of small streams and tributaries. Isolated flash
flooding may be possible, especially in areas with poor drainage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.