Tornado Warning 17, NWS La Crosse, WI

841 
WWUS53 KARX 261944
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
244 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

MNC039-261954-
/O.CAN.KARX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-250626T2000Z/
Dodge MN-
244 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9258 4419 9257 4420 9233 4419 9232
      4411 9232 4411 9228 4395 9227 4395 9260
      4417 9267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 257DEG 26KT 4409 9252 

$$

MNC109-262000-
/O.CON.KARX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-250626T2000Z/
Olmsted MN-
244 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OLMSTED COUNTY...

At 244 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Oronoco, or near Rochester, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Rochester around 250 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Chester, Kings Park, Ringe, Douglas, Potsdam, Apache Mall, and
Highway 52 And 55th Northwest.

This includes Interstate 90 in Minnesota between mile markers 218 and
222.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9258 4419 9257 4420 9233 4419 9232
      4411 9232 4411 9228 4395 9227 4395 9260
      4417 9267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 257DEG 26KT 4409 9252 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Ferguson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1255 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today, severe thunderstorms possible again this afternoon,
  with a few tornadoes & heavy rain as the primary threats.
  Please stay weather aware in case watches and warnings are
  issued for your area.

- This weekend, another round of strong to severe storms possible
  Saturday night into Sunday.

- Next week, drier conditions are expected across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

TODAY...the main concern this afternoon into this evening is the
another round of thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes,
as well as heavy rain and the potential for flooding. Please stay
weather aware in case watches and warnings are issued for your area.

An upper level wave was located across the Missouri River Valley,
with precipitation downstream of the trough axis across the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota. Late morning satellite imagery with a RAP
surface analysis showed a surface low approaching western Iowa, with
mostly clear skies and easterly winds ahead of it. A warm front was
becoming better defined near I-90, and this will set the stage for
another severe weather threat this afternoon.

By early this afternoon, instability around 2000 to 3000 j/kg will
be in place south of this warm front, and the aforementioned upper
level trough be enough lift to develop storms. In addition, the
veered wind profile along the warm front will be favorable for
rotating storms. Forecast sounding show nearly 300 m2/s2 of 0-2km
helicity, along with low cloud bases. The combination of instability
and wind shear should lead to at least a few storms capable of
producing tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has lifted the
severe weather outlook northward, and now the slight risk and
tornado threat are centered across the local area. In addition to
the severe threat, heavy rain will also accompany these storms, and
if storms were to track across the same region, then amounts in
excess of 3 inches would be possible. A flash flood watch was issued
for counties along and near I-90. The timing for these storms are
this afternoon and evening, with storms expected to be east of the
region by midnight tonight.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Rain will exit the region overnight, but
forecast soundings show low clouds lingering through Friday morning,
before clearing out later in the day as weak high pressure builds
across the region. On Friday night storms will develop over the
Dakotas, but they should fall part before the reach the tri-state
area. By Saturday, southerly flow will return across the region,
with hot and humid conditions expected over the weekend. Additional
thunderstorm chances are possible Saturday night, and again Sunday
into Sunday night. The instability and shear profiles would once
again support strong to severe storms.

Looking ahead, the current southwest flow of the jet stream will
transition to zonal flow this weekend, and eventually northwest flow
next week. That will bring in some drier air, with dewpoints, back
in the lower 60s. Temperatures will be slightly above the seasonal
average for early July, with highs in the lower 80s. This pattern
favors drier weather, but cant completely rule out and
precipitation, so have generally 10 to 20 percent chances in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Low ceilings continue with IFR at KRST while KLSE has scattered
out for the start of the period. A line of thunderstorms has
formed over southern Minnesota and will move through this
afternoon and evening, with IFR conditions within the heavier
rain and IFR ceilings on the backside of the rain overnight.
Light winds will be variable today given the passage of a low
pressure overhead, mainly from the east north of I-90 and SSW
to the south during the day and veering to the northwest
areawide overnight. A non-zero probability of some patchy BR
overnight after the rain exits. Surface winds remain 5-10 knots
so BR should be MVFR to hi-IFR at worst. IFR cigs will improve
to MVFR after sunrise Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Daily Rainfall Records - June 26

La Crosse - 2.77 inches in 2021
June rainfall record is 4.50 inches on June 18, 2011

Rochester - 2.00 inches in 1941
June rainfall record is 4.90 inches on June 28, 2019

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch through late tonight for WIZ041>044-053>055.
MN...Flood Watch through late tonight for MNZ086>088-094>096.
IA...Flood Watch through late tonight for IAZ008>011.

&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BPH
CLIMATE...Falkinham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1020 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-271930-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1020 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds,
heavy rain, and localized flooding are possible this afternoon
into this evening. Any potential tornadoes are expected to be
weak and short lived, but an isolated stronger tornado could be
possible early this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible late Saturday into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar is scheduled for 2 PM today.

Kurz