Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
530 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather (damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes)
  possible this afternoon evening, and maybe another round
  overnight.

- Heavy rain expected through tonight. Rainfall totals of 1-3
  inches are expected with localized totals of 3-5 inches. Due
  to this a Flood Watch has been issued through 7 AM Thursday.

- River flood watches has been issued for several rivers and
  creeks in the area. Minor to moderate flooding is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This afternoon and early evening

Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon is starting to show
some breaks in the clouds south of Interstate 90. As the afternoon
progresses, a differential heating area is expected to develop south
of Interstate 90 across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.
This will allow surface-based CAPES to climb into the 1-3K J/kg
range. The effective shear along the Interstate 90 corridor is
expected to climb to around 40 knots. This could potentially
result in some supercells. However, the most likely storm
structure will be organized/bowing clusters of storms capable of
damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. We have
been in coordination with the Storm Prediction Center about
extending the slight risk further east into southwest and
central Wisconsin.

With precipitable water values around 2.25 inches, warm-cloud depths
over 4 km, and moderate to strong 850 mb moisture advection into the
region through tonight, the showers and storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 25.12z HREF continues to suggest that
the area will see 1 to 3 inches of rain through tonight and the
localized probability-matched mean suggest the potential for 3 to 5
inches. Due to this, a Flood Watch for the risk of flash flooding
has been issued for this afternoon and tonight.

Late tonight and Thursday

A mesoscale complex will move out of Nebraska this evening and move
through areas south of Interstate 94 late tonight. This could
potentially result in another area of strong winds moving east
through the area. This will result in pushing a front south into
central Iowa and northern Illinois. This front will then move back
north as a warm front on Thursday. Overall, the best 850 mb moisture
transport is east of the area. As a result, there may be a brief
threat of damaging winds and heavy rain during the afternoon and by
early evening this threat should be east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

As it has been the past few days, a challenging aviation forecast as
a wavering surface front interacts with variety of other, mostly
small scale weather features, producing periods of shra/ts along
with fluctuating cigs and vsbys. Wind direction is also highly
variable at times. Will continue to paint the 6+ hour forecast with
a broad brush, leaning into the more probable, refining as we move
into the few hours out. Expect refinements through the next 24 to 36
hours.

CIGS: overall, short term models favor MVFR to IFR and will hold the
forecast there. Some potential for a few hours of VFR here and
there, but confidence not high enough to add.

WX/vsby: clusters of shra/ts moving east across the TAF sites this
evening, likely clearing KRST by 01z and KLSE btwn 02-03z. A cluster
of shras and a few storms could shift northeast out of central IA
around 06z, but CAMS (as of now) suggest they will skirt the TAF
sites. More confidence in SHRA/TS development after 18z Thu,
scattered initially, but then a line tracks through. Much of this
could be east of KRST by 00z FRI and KLSE by 02z FRI. Again though,
this assumes current setup holds...and chances are that a few small
scale variable will alter this outcome (somewhat).

WINDS: expect some variability in wind speeds as the sfc front
wobbles north and south and an area of low pressure slides in
from IA. Speeds mostly 10 kts or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

With precipitable water values around 2.25 inches, warm-cloud depths
over 4 km, and moderate to strong 850 mb moisture advection into the
region through tonight, the showers and storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 25.12z HREF continues to suggest that
the area will see 1 to 3 inches of rain through tonight and the
localized probability-matched mean suggest the potential for 3 to 5
inches. Due to this, a Flood Watch for the potential of Flash
Flooding was issued earlier this morning. This watch is in effect
through 7 AM Thursday for all of southeast Minnesota, southwest and
central Wisconsin, and much of northeast Iowa.

River flood watches have been issued for portions of the Black
(minor to moderate flooding possible), Kickapoo (minor to moderate
flooding possible), and Yellow rivers (minor flooding possible) in
western Wisconsin, Cedar River at Charles City (potential for minor
flooding) in northeast Iowa, and Turtle Creek (potential for minor
flooding) in southeast Minnesota. These forecasts were based on 48-
hour rainfall forecasts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

La Crosse

Daily rainfall records

June 25 - 1.65 inches in 2010
June 26 - 2.77 inches in 2021

June rainfall record is 4.50 inches on June 18, 2011

Rochester

Daily rainfall records

June 25 - 4.18 inches in 1913 (3rd highest for JUne)
June 26 - 2.00 inches in 1941

June rainfall record is 4.90 inches on June 28, 2019

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055.
MN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.
IA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for IAZ008>011.

&&

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION....Rieck
HYDROLOGY...Boyne
CLIMATE...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
354 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-261300-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
354 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into tonight. Repeated heavy rainfall could lead to
areas of flooding.

Some strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts are
possible. An isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periods of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected Thursday.
Repeated heavy rainfall could lead to areas of flooding. Some
storms could be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
408 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 E Ostrander           43.61N 92.41W
06/25/2025  E58 MPH          Fillmore           MN   Emergency Mngr

&&

APF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
424 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

MNZ095-252200-
Fillmore MN-
424 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING FILLMORE COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 422 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms,
occasionally producing funnels, along a line extending from near
Lanesboro to near Lime Springs. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Brief tornado possible and wind gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Preston and Lanesboro around 425 PM CDT.
  Harmony around 430 PM CDT.
  Canton around 435 PM CDT.
  Rushford around 440 PM CDT.
  Mabel around 450 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Forestville State
Park, Choice, York, Isinours, Hutton, Fillmore, Peterson, Rushford
Village, Whalan, and Pilot Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Iowa...and southeastern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4384 9221 4384 9173 4350 9174 4350 9245
      4351 9245
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 259DEG 36KT 4374 9204 4351 9223

LANDSPOUT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Baumgardt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
436 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 ENE Osage             43.30N 92.76W
06/25/2025                   Mitchell           IA   Trained Spotter

&&

APF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
447 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

IAZ008-009-252245-
Howard IA-Mitchell IA-
447 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN MITCEHLL COUNTY...TRACKING INTO
NORTHERN HOWARD COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
producing occasional funnels near Riceville, or 10 miles northeast
of Osage, moving east at 30 mph. No confirmed tornadoes have
occurred with this storm.

HAZARD...Brief tornadoes could occur and wind gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Riceville around 450 PM CDT.
  Lime Springs around 515 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Chester, Saratoga,
County Roads A 23 And V 58, County Roads T 54 And A 31, McIntire,
Hayden Prairie, and County V 10 And 40th Street.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north central
and northeastern Iowa.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 9271 4350 9246 4350 9208 4345 9208
      4330 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 247DEG 26KT 4336 9263

LANDSPOUT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Baumgardt