Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
513 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms mainly north of Interstate 90
  tonight. The stronger storms might produce some hail.

- A Winter Storm Watch continues for Clark and Taylor County
  from Saturday evening through Sunday evening. The primary
  concern continues to be with the ice accumulations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Tonight

A cold front will move slowly southward toward the Interstate 90
corridor. There is not much indication of moisture transport into
this front. As a result, the CAMs are primarily showing
scattered showers and storms. The NAM Nest 4 km is the only one
showing some scattered strong storms, but they are primarily
north of Taylor County. If a storm does happen to become strong
tonight, the main threat would be hail.

Saturday afternoon

The 925 mb and 850 mb moisture transport gradually increases along
the stationary front near and just south of the Interstate 90
corridor. This results in the development of showers and few storms.
There will be addition bands of showers further north due to
850-700 mb frontogenesis.

Saturday night into Sunday

The 28.00z ECMWF ensemble has shifted further south and it is more
in line with the 28.06z and 28.12z GEFS with the clustering of their
surface lows. These surface low clusters are in general
agreement that it will track between the Interstate 90 and 94
corridors. This will result in a occasional rain along these
Interstates and south. Further north, soundings show a broad
warm nose between 900 and 700 mb and dry east and northeast
surface winds. The evaporative cooling near the surface will
result in freezing rain. The highest probabilities continue to
be near and north of Wisconsin 29. There continues to be
uncertainty of whether we need an Ice Storm Warning or Winter
Weather Advisory. Due to this, kept the Winter Storm Watch in
effect from Saturday evening through Sunday evening.

As colder air moves into the region on Sunday, the rain south of
Wisconsin 29 will gradually become a light wintry mix.

Tuesday into Thursday

The 28/12z models are in general agreement that a shortwave will
eject out of the Central Plains and move either east or northeast
into the Upper/Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This movement is
dependent upon the location of a northern stream shortwave over
Quebec and Newfoundland. In the solutions where this trough is
further west over Quebec (66% of the grand ensemble members), this
results in ridge over the Great Lakes becoming more amplified and
more of a northeast track of the surface low. This track would be
more of a rain solution for the forecast area. Meanwhile, in the
solutions where the trough is further east (more over Newfoundland -
34% of the grand ensemble members), there is a less amplified ridge
over the Great Lakes. This results in more of an eastward track of
the Central Plains shortwave. This still results in rain initially,
but as this system moves east. However, as the deformation band
moves east, this results in a wintry mix for areas along and north
of Interstate 90. The 28.00z LREF has anywhere from a 20 to 50%
chance of at 1 inch of snow or more.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Primary concern over the next 24 hours is the likelihood of
eventual IFR ceilings after 12z tomorrow. Expect these to spread
southward across the area, including RST/LSE. Secondary concern
is potential for TS over the next 6 hours. Potential appears to
be too low (20%) to include in the TAFs, but this will be
monitored closely this evening. Otherwise, winds will tend to be
out of the southwest, turning clockwise to out of the northeast
as a front pushes south Saturday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Record or near record highs Today:

Fri March 28 Temperature Records

LSE High      80F/1986
LSE Warm Low  52F/1879
RST High      76F/1946
RST Warm Low 49F/1977

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     evening for WIZ017-029.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Ferguson
CLIMATE...Zapotocny

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
208 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-291100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
Crawford-Richland-Grant-
208 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...
southwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered storms may develop along a cold front from southeast
Minnesota into west central Wisconsin this evening. A few could
become strong with hail being the primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There will be a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday. The primary
threat is lightning.

This weekend, widespread rain will transition to snow/wintry mix
with some light snow accumulations possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

WIZ017-029-291100-
Taylor-Clark-
208 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Wisconsin and north central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered storms may develop along a cold front this afternoon and
evening. A few could become strong with hail being the primary
hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

This weekend, widespread rain will transition to snow/wintry mix
with ice and snow accumulations possible. A winter storm watch is
in effect. Please check out the winter storm watch for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Boyne

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
629 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

MNZ079-290000-
Wabasha MN-
629 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WABASHA COUNTY THROUGH
700 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mazeppa, or 16 miles south of Red Wing, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wabasha around 645 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Pioneer Campground,
Zumbro Bottoms Campground, Oak Center, Zumbro Falls, West Albany,
County Roads 33 And 4, Highway 63 And County 2, Lock And Dam 4,
Dumfries, and Theilman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4443 9243 4446 9234
      4445 9224 4444 9221 4440 9206 4438 9203
      4436 9197 4433 9192 4431 9191 4430 9192
      4424 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 251DEG 48KT 4432 9247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Ferguson