Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High heat continues today for some, primarily those in
  southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. Heat indices between
  85 and 101 are expected across the region.

- Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today (risk
  level 2 out of 5), generally between 1pm and 7pm CDT. Main
  hazard is damaging winds, but isolated severe hail is
  possible.

- Potential for heavy rain Monday through Friday as multiple
  rounds of showers and storms move through the area. Total
  amounts through Friday remain in question, but confidence is
  high in several rounds of precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

High Heat Today For Some

A more pronounced gradient in high temperatures is expected
today as compared to previous days in advance of an approaching
cold front. This front appears to be through at least the
northwestern portion of our area by the afternoon, moderating
temperatures in these areas. However, high heat is expected to
continue for a third day in a row for areas ahead of this front,
primarily northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, as stagnant
high pressure and upper level ridging remain over the eastern
United States allowing for little in the way of airmass change.
High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s to
low 90s across these areas today given little spatial variation
of the 925hPa 24C isotherm in the 25th-75th percentile of the
23.00z HREF which combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
low 70s would result in heat indices in the upper 90s to low
100s. Relief from the heat comes to these areas this evening as
the front moves through, but currently expecting the front to
arrive after peak heating.

Scattered Strong to Severe Storms Today

At 500hPa, a trough currently seen over the intermountain west
in water vapor imagery continues eastward today, eventually
riding over the ridge situated across the eastern United States.
At the surface, low pressure and associated cold front move
eastward as well, eventually moving southeastward through our
region this afternoon.

Along this front, scattered convection is expected to develop
this afternoon, generally between 1pm-7pm CDT. Ample instability
is progged to develop ahead of the front with MLCAPE values of
1500- 2000 J/kg associated with cooling temperatures aloft in
advance of the approaching trough. Deep layer shear of 25-35kts
oriented nearly parallel to the surface front is supportive of
severe storms in a linear convective mode. Overall,
thermodynamic and kinematic variables continue to look favorable
for strong to severe storm development along the front this
afternoon.

Given dry air in the mid-levels supportive of evaporative
cooling, DCAPE values of 1000+J/kg, and linear mode, damaging
winds appear to be the primary severe threat followed by
isolated severe hail. Low level shear profiles remain
unfavorable for tornadogenesis.

Heavy Rain Potential This Week

The cold front that moves through this afternoon elongates and
stalls across the upper Midwest as it runs into the
aforementioned high pressure across the eastern United States,
developing into a quasi-stationary boundary and becoming the
focus of multiple rounds of rain through the remainder of the
week.

Where this boundary sets up on a day to day basis remains
challenging to pin down. For Tuesday, the 22.12z NAEFS shows the
PWATs in the 99.5th percentile concentrated in an east-west
orientation across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, a
consistent signal over the last several runs. This positioning
is supported by the 22.12z LREF which indicates the boundary
drapes east-west across our far southern counties Tuesday. This
would suggest that the highest rainfall Tuesday would occur
across these areas with a 40-60% probability of 3/4 inch or
greater in the LREF. However, the global deterministic models
suggest the boundary may set up a little further south. If this
solution were to be realized, our area may end up on the lower
end of ensemble guidance.

Beyond Tuesday, the NAEFS continues its high PWAT values,
generally in the 95th percentile or higher in at least some
portion of our area. The sufficient moisture available through
the week based on these values indicates heavy rain remains
possible, likely in multiple rounds. More variation in boundary
position is introduced at these longer valid times, so there is
more uncertainty in overall rainfall amounts and locations. The
22.12z LREF probabilities for 3+ inches of total rainfall
through Friday remain fairly consistent run to run, suggesting
40-60% from northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin, although a
slight southward shift of these probabilities is noted in the
past 24hrs.

Flooding potential remains dependent on the day to day position
of the quasi-stationary front and where training convection is
able to develop. HEFS guidance indicates the higher end rainfall
totals will be required for the more susceptible rivers to
reach minor flood stage with the most likely scenarios only
reaching action stage. Flash flooding will be confined to areas
that receive training storms, but fairly dry antecedent
conditions may hinder flash flooding potential. Will need to
continue to monitor through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Main taf concerns are storm chances/MVFR conditions this
afternoon into the early evening hours at both RST/LSE taf
sites. A cold front will slowly move across the area this
afternoon into tonight. This will be a focus for showers/storm
development this afternoon into the early evening hours. Latest
hi-resolution models suggest convection develops around 18z
today and impact both taf sites by the early afternoon hours.
The main issue will be where the stronger storms develop and
move over the taf sites. Under the convection...MVFR conditions
can be expected. However...if stronger storms move over the taf
sites this afternoon/early evening hours...IFR conditions can be
expected. At this time...have kept a tempo group of MVFR
condition at both taf sites after 18z today to around 00z
Tuesday.

Next concern is how far south front moves across the area
tonight. Latest guidance suggest...front will move just south of
both taf sites and any convection will remain over parts of
northeast Iowa/southwest Wisconsin. Though there are hints the
front may not move as far south and scattered convection could
move back into the taf sites after 07z Tuesday or late in the
taf period. For now...introduced showers into the LSE taf site
at 07z and have no mention of showers at RST taf site after 02z
Tuesday. Instability is limited tonight...coverage of thunder
would be isolated and will not mention thunder at LSE taf site
tonight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ042>044-
     053>055-061.
MN...None.
IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ011-029-030.

&&

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...DTJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
416 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

IAZ008>010-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041-
241330-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-
Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-
Jackson-La Crosse-
416 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...
north central Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into
the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Rounds of showers and storms are expected through Friday. Repeated
heavy rainfall could lead to areas of flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ011-029-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-241330-
Allamakee-Fayette-Clayton-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-
Richland-Grant-
416 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...central Wisconsin...southwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Impacts from high heat are expected again today as heat indices
near 100 degrees. A Heat Advisory continues into the early
evening.

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into
the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Rounds of showers and storms are expected through Friday. Repeated
heavy rainfall could lead to areas of flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
306 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Dexter              43.73N 92.71W
06/23/2025                   Mower              MN   Trained Spotter

            Healthy pine trees snapped at the trunk at
            the Dexter Cemetery. Time estimated on
            radar.

&&

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
319 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

MNZ088-WIZ033-041-232100-
Winona MN-Trempealeau WI-La Crosse WI-
319 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WINONA...NORTHERN
LA CROSSE AND SOUTHEASTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dakota, or 12 miles northwest of La Crosse, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Holmen, Dakota, and Brice Prairie around 325 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Camp Decorah,
Stevenstown, Council Bay, New Hartford, County Roads M And W, Mindoro
Cut, Dresbach, Severson Coulee, Mindoro, and New Amsterdam.

This includes Interstate 90 in Minnesota between mile markers 263 and
273.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4396 9102 4385 9150 4385 9152 4400 9152
      4411 9120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 246DEG 35KT 4392 9146

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Baumgardt