Special Weather Statement, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
316 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Continued scattered showers and storms expected today. One or two
stronger storms reaming possible this afternoon/evening I-75 and
east.

-Near record breaking heat today and Saturday. Highs expected to
reach low 90s for most locations along with high humidity.

-Period shower and storm chances this week followed by more
 widespread rainfall this Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel heights expected to continue to rise
today as shortwave ridging centers itself over the Great Lakes
region. Surface southerly flow will carry a warm and moist air mass
from the gulf. Most noticeable feature for the next few days will be
near record breaking heat with continued rounds of isolated showers
and storms. Slight downsloping will make the locations of the high
heat "winners" to be Traverse City along with northeast parts of
northern lower as localized areas may reach the 92-95 degree range.
Instability builds in the afternoon carrying chances of showers and
storms through the short term.

Forecast Details...

Today...While the continuation of isolated to scattered showers and
storms remains the main concern in terms of impactful weather, the
entire CWA will be dealing with high heat and humidity. Diurnal
heating processes will push the entire region to  near 90 degree
temperatures. A few showers and storms will be tracking across
easter upper around 12Z this morning due to a disheveled MCS
currently over Lake Superior. The after a brief quiet period this
morning to early afternoon, instability builds to continue this
pattern of convective driven showers. Most locations will remain
dry, but best probabilities of active weather will be I-75 and
eastward. Most showers are expected to be quick lived and short, but
low shear and high CAPE conditions will lead to one or two possible
severe storms with the main concern being hail or downdraft winds.

Tonight... Storms driven by daytime heating should start to taper
off around 2Z tonight. Additional chances of precipitation will
continue overnight as another dissipating system makes a run across
the upper peninsula. Areas below the bridge remain mainly dry with
overnight lows near 70 degrees due the high dew points from the
Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Heat and moisture from the Gulf of America will continue to impact
the Great Lakes region this Saturday as the center of the ridge axis
builds over the region. 850mb temperatures in the mid 60s will
deliver temperatures in the low to mid 90s across northern lower and
eastern upper. Additional low to medium probabilities of
precipitation continue this Saturday as afternoon instability likely
continues the same pattern showers and storms bubbling up along.

Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the Canadian rockies
will make a run to Ontario this weekend. Surface low pressure will
make its way across Canada with an attached cold front returning
widespread showers and storms. Increasing potential for more active
convection associated with the frontal passage on Sunday. Guidance
is hinting at a slow moving boundary with plenty of energy for
localized heavy rainfall. SPC has marked part of the CWA with a
marginal risk for severe weather along with WPC highlighting
Michigan with a MRGL risk of excessive rain this Sunday and Monday.
Too early to pinpoint potential impacts or locations of severity but
we will continue to monitor this frontal passage. Condtions turn
more dry by midweek as cool dry Canadian air settles in and returns
highs around 80 to the Great Lakes state by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Some IFR/MVFR VSBYs possible in fog tonight through sunrise,
primarily at MBL/PLN/APN -- although lower than desired
confidence given some semblance of high cloud may prevent this.
Otherwise, cu field develops Friday midday/afternoon with
additional scattered thunderstorms possible mid-afternoon
through mid-evening...primarily at APN. Light south to south-
southwest winds through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MJG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
310 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MIZ086-080745-
Western Chippewa MI-
310 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY
THROUGH 345 AM EDT...

At 310 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whitefish Point, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paradise and Whitefish Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4676 8490 4670 8497 4667 8498 4657 8498
      4656 8493 4653 8495 4665 8524 4676 8523
      4676 8504 4677 8500 4677 8490
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 296DEG 19KT 4671 8511

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
416 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MIZ086-080845-
Western Chippewa MI-
416 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CHIPPEWA COUNTY
THROUGH 445 AM EDT...

At 416 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Lower Tahquamenon Falls State Park, or 9 miles
southwest of Paradise, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hulbert, Mackinaw Lake, and Platt Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4662 8504 4640 8490 4633 8524 4658 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 344DEG 12KT 4652 8514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
448 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MIZ086-096-080915-
Western Chippewa MI-Eastern Mackinac MI-
448 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND NORTH
CENTRAL MACKINAC COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM EDT...

At 448 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Eckerman, or 20 miles south of Paradise, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trout Lake, Hulbert, Fibre, East Lake, Strongs, and Eckerman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4613 8474 4604 8511 4625 8511 4625 8517
      4637 8521 4643 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 0848Z 340DEG 20KT 4634 8506

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SJC

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