Small Craft Advisory 78, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
145 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid with periodic storm chances into early next week.

- A bit less warm and humid with perhaps more rain chances the
  remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Direct connection to subtropical airmass continues unabated into
the Northwoods, bringing with it uncomfortably warm and humid
conditions. Combination of that heat/humidity and passing weak
partially convective agitated impulses the last 24 hours has
resulted in periodic bouts of showers and storms...some of which
have been locally robust. However, as is often the case across
northern Michigan during the warm convective season, overall
organization and coverage of these showers/storms has been minimal,
resulting in most of the area and much of the time being a dry one.

Sub-tropical airmass will remain directed into the region through
this weekend, with flow actually maturing with time as area becomes
squarely centered in ridge/trough interface by later Saturday into
Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing any shower/storm potential.

Details:

Initial focus centered on potential for more showers and
thunderstorms to percolate the remainder of this afternoon and early
evening, again especially across northeast lower Michigan where low
level convergence will be maximized. While wind shear through the
convective layer is relatively modest...that convective layer does
display some impressive cape within the hail growth region. So, much
like yesterday, cannot completely rule out an isolated large hailer
or two. Otherwise, looking like dry and mild conditions overnight,
with lows only dropping into the 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday is shaping up to be just plain uncomfortably warm to hot.
Intensifying H7 centered warm nose and general warming aloft should
largely preclude moist convection from developing, only helping
temperatures warm further. Combine that with mechanical mixing
support in gusty southwest winds and a robustly warm low level
environment...and the stage is set for widespread highs up into the
lower 90s...with even some mid 90s attainable in downslope favored
areas of northeast lower Michigan. Impressive mixing and some
general drying up to that H7 layer does support a bit more
aggressive drying of the near surface environment...likely dropping
dewpoints into at least the mid 60s in those warmer areas. This
should keep heat indices just a few degrees above actual
temperatures and a bit short of any heat related headline criteria.
No doubt hot though, so definitely take necessary precautions if out
and about on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Moisture rich southwest flow looks to continue into the start of
next week ahead of slowly approaching mid/upper level troughing and
attendant weak cold front. Troughing expected to pass into and
through the region into mid-week, with perhaps more amplification
and a return to more heat heading just beyond this current forecast
period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and additional shower/storm concerns through the
period.

Details:

Troughing will continue to slowly move into the area early next
week. While overall forcing will increase, actual placement of
greatest deep layer convergence will be highly predicated by yet to
be determined convective induced outflow boundaries. Simple pattern
recognition supports at least some shower/storm potential Saturday
night through at least Monday night/early Tuesday. Again, given
convective nature of activity and those expected outflow boundaries,
just no way to give any real specificity to best rain potential. May
(I repeat...may) see a few stronger storms Saturday night as
upstream convection attempts to move into the area. Latest SPC Day 2
convective outlook maintains marginal severe wording across the
northwest half of our area to address this potential. Will have to
watch for some decent rain totals by Tuesday morning, but again
pattern recognition supports any substantial rain to be highly
localized and of minimal impact. Still warm and humid through
Monday, but definitely less intense heat than observed Saturday.

Passage of troughing should keep conditions a bit less warm and
humid into mid and late week. Dry weather should largely prevail as
Canada originated high pressure builds south into the northern Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Skies filling in with afternoon CU and becoming generally SCT-
BKN at 3 - 5 kft. Lake breeze is evident near Lk Huron coastal
terminals (KAPN) turning winds E/SE, otherwise winds are
generally SW at 5 to 10kts with G15kts for a few sites.
VCTS/TSRA chances begin around 20Z and linger through 06Z for NE
and eastern upper terminals (KCIU/KAPN). MVFR/IFR conditions
could be seen if under a TS. Otherwise VFR conditions through
the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ELD

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