Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

- Thunderstorms will be possible across the northwestern combined
Panhandles this afternoon and Saturday afternoon and evening.
Damaging wind gusts is the primary hazard.

- Thunderstorms are probable on Sunday starting as early as the
  mid- afternoon and perhaps lasting through the night. Can't
  entirely rule out a damaging wind gust in the afternoon hours,
  but the primary hazard may be localized flooding/flash flooding
  potential due to heavy to torrential rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

There will be around a 15-25% chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along and behind a surface
trough in the northwestern Panhandles as embedded disturbances in
the flow aloft move in. Forecast soundings in the vicinity show a
tall, inverted-V thermodynamic profile below relatively moist mid-
levels resulting in DCAPE values around 1900 J/kg to 2200 J/kg.
Therefore, any shower or thunderstorm that can develop will produce
virga that produces gusty surface winds. A stronger thunderstorm
will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 70 mph with hail up to
the size of pennies. Activity should wane through the evening.

An upper-level trough will move into the northern US, and with it
temperatures aloft will cool some resulting in highs "cooling" into
the 90s across most of the Panhandles. A weak front is favored into
move into a portion of the northern Panhandles later Saturday
afternoon before embedded disturbances move across the northern
Panhandles once again. Once again, forecast soundings show inverted-
V signatures which will once again favor gusty winds with showers
and damaging winds with any stronger thunderstorm that can develop.
Showers and thunderstorms could persist to some degree into the
evening and perhaps overnight hours, but confidence about that is
limited at this time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A quasi-stationary boundary is likely to be set up across a portion
of the Panhandles by Sunday morning. A positively tilted trough will
swing from the Intermountain West toward the Panhandles throughout
the day on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms may begin in the
afternoon hours with a very low chance for a wind gust up to 60 mph,
but the better chances for showers and thunderstorms should be in
the evening and overnight hours when more favorable forcing arrives.
Convection that develops in New Mexico may eventually develop into
an MCS in the Panhandles. The previously mentioned boundary will
push southward from convective outflow and PWATs will increase
through the night, resulting in an increasing threat for heavy to
torrential rainfall. Fortunately, the risk for flash flooding is
somewhat limited by the faster storm motions. With that said, rain
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, perhaps locally up to 3 inches,
will be possible. The primary uncertainty at this point is regarding
the location of the boundary as the heaviest rainfall should occur
along and north of it. As it stands now, the northern combined
Panhandles are favored to be impacted but have seen it several times
before where the boundary ends up further south than guidance had
it, resulting in the axis of heaviest rain jumping south on the day
of.

Depending how long clouds linger into Monday, temperatures may
remain in the 80s across most of the area. Now on the backside of
the previously mentioned trough, northwesterly flow aloft is favored
for Monday. This, along with southeasterly surface winds, should
allow for convection to develop on the higher terrain to the west.
Depending on how much destabilization can occur, we could see some
thunderstorms move into the Panhandles again on Monday. If the
atmosphere remains too stable, storms would weaken as they move in.

Confidence in the forecast decreases beyond Monday as guidance
diverges regarding the progression of the upper-level trough as it
departs, with some guidance having it linger in the Central Plains.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

As of early this evening, scatter to isolated shower and
thunderstorms were progressing eastward across the western
Panhandles. These storms may create vicinity lightning and brief
rain showers at KGUY and KDHT, but will likely diminish as we get
later into the overnight hours. From there, all terminals are
expected to return to VFR conditions.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-007>015-
     018>020.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-090545-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Widespread triple digit temperatures are likely today and a Heat
Advisory is in effect for the central and eastern Panhandles
through 8 PM.

An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for Palo Duro Canyon until
8 PM, when temperatures could reach dangerous levels as high as
110 degrees.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across the
northwest this afternoon and early evening. If any storms do form,
they could produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Rain showers and thunderstorms have an increasing chance to
return to the Panhandles this weekend into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
657 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

OKZ003-090030-
Beaver OK-
657 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN BEAVER COUNTY THROUGH
730 PM CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Floris, or 12 miles west of Beaver, moving east at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver, Forgan, Elmwood, Bryans Corner, Boyd, Mocane, Turpin, Floris,
and Balko.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 10038 3660 10092 3700 10093 3700 10048
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 249DEG 17KT 3682 10076

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
706 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

TXZ002-003-007-008-090030-
Hutchinson TX-Sherman TX-Hansford TX-Moore TX-
706 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON...
SOUTHWESTERN HANSFORD...SOUTHEASTERN SHERMAN AND NORTHEASTERN MOORE
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Morse, or 24 miles northeast of Dumas, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morse and Pringle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 10136 3591 10121 3585 10165 3604 10174
      3609 10166 3611 10160
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 249DEG 17KT 3600 10156

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
711 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WSW Hooker            36.86N 101.23W
08/08/2025  M60 MPH          Texas              OK   Mesonet

            A decaying thunderstorm produced a minor
            heat burst over Hooker. Temperature
            increased and dew point decreased in
            conjunction with the severe wind gust.

&&

AJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
721 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

TXZ001-002-006-007-090045-
Hartley TX-Sherman TX-Dallam TX-Moore TX-
721 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN...
SOUTHEASTERN DALLAM...NORTHWESTERN MOORE AND NORTHEASTERN HARTLEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Hartley, or 14 miles east of Dalhart, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cactus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 10233 3611 10236 3622 10198 3591 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 261DEG 17KT 3604 10226

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SS

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