Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

- Chances for thunderstorms continue through the week bringing low
  end severe and flooding threats to the Panhandles especially
  through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Surface reflections of the late season Rockies mid-upper low and
strong ERN US mid- upper high continue to produce a tight pgrad
and breezy conditions across the area. Winds have been flirting
with advisory along the Highway 60 wind tunnel from AMA NE and in
the NRN Panhandles but haven't quite got there consistently.
Tomorrow should a little be less breezy and this will begin a
slow weakening trend wrt the wind. The best tap into the well
advertised abundant moisture across Mexico for the Panhandles will
occur today and Monday as aforementioned systems funnel it
northward into the area. Weak short waves (disturbances) will help
trigger storms across NM along a weak dry line convergence this
afternoon and these will follow the moisture axis into WRN
Panhandles by late afternoon / early evening. The lumpy CU field
in the west is giving away where the highest chances for rain will
occur. CAPE is somewhat limited and skinny and wind shear is
minimal, but warm SFC temperatures are helping to promote decent
DCAPE. This continues to support more of a heavy rain / downburst
threat with storms today. SPC is showing a slight risk (level 2/5)
for the NW and WPC is including the far west in a marginal for
excessive rainfall (level 1/4), both of which are reasonable.
Storms tonight are not expected to reach further than roughly a
GUY to AMA line given weak support and convective parameters.

Monday looks like the best rain event for the week as the moisture
axis is centered over much of the region and the short wave is
much stronger than today. It is also earlier wrt timing though
and the first storms could be going up very soon after lunch.
PWATs peak at around 1.6 to 1.9 inches depending on which model
you look at. There is a weak front that could help focus the
heaviest rainfall but is it tough to say how far into the area it
will reach, if it reaches at all. Convective parameters are
similar to today, but with less DCAPE given cooler SFC
temperatures and earlier start time. This suggests an even lower
end severe potential and SPC marginal looks good mainly for a
rouge gust to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall threat will be greater
however and the western column of counties are included in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2/4) by WPC. Rainfall
through tomorrow should average around 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches
total in the W/NW. Any areas that get good storms both days would
have potential to see 2-3" localized rainfall totals, but the
current probability of seeing 2 inches or more is only around 5-15
percent at any one location across the western Panhandles with
higher values west into NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

High pressure ridge will nudge in from the east pushing the
deepest moisture back west on Tuesday and this is confining POPs
to the far west Tue. The low over the Rockies will finally move
east weakening the west side of the ridge Wed into Thu which will
bring the low POPs a little further east each day. By Friday an
easterly wave over the Atlantic will work around the high center
and ends its dominance over the ERN US while high pressure begins
to build over the Rockies (after a few days of zonal flow in the
wake of the upper low). This leaves W Texas in a weakness between
two weak highs by the weekend. This combined with a continued
moisture axis that spreads back across the area from the SW will
continue to promote at least isolated diurnal storms just about
every day through the weekend although the NBM remains relatively
low w/ POPs (less than 20 percent) except Thu and Sun currently
when 20-30 POPs are advertised. Will see if that changes with
time. The other impact of this pattern will be relatively normal
temperatures through the period with highs only in the upper 80s
to low 90s Wed and Thu and low to mid 90s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

VFR conditions will continue this evening but as storms continue
to move in from the west, these may bring brief MVFR restrictions
to especially KDHT and possibly KGUY. Uncertainty remains about if
storms, or how strong, they will be will reach KAMA. Winds remain
gusty out of the south at all sites and will continue that way
overnight into tomorrow, but sustained speeds and gusts should be
lower than they have been over the weekend.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION...28