Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
125 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

- Thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern and
  southeastern combined Panhandles this afternoon and through the
  evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

- Thunderstorms will be possible from Wednesday through at least
  Sunday. At least some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
  may be present each day. Localized flooding will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

As of 12 PM, a dryline is stretched southwest-northeast from south
of Dalhart through eastern Texas county and progressing southeast.
Meanwhile, a cold front is stalling in the northern Oklahoma
Panhandle. Dew points in the 40s to low-50s are being observed east
of the dryline as temperatures warm into the 70s and later this
afternoon into the 80s. As convergence along the dryline sharpens
and daytime heating erodes the cap, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline. Guidance earlier
this morning was progressing the dryline too quickly, but now it
appears to be catching up to the guidance. On the other hand, most
guidance have been underestimating the low-level moisture east of
the dryline, especially in the southeastern TX Panhandle.

Latest thinking is that the initial development could range from
roughly Canyon northeastward to Pampa and Canadian... though there
is definitely a margin of error such that Amarillo could see some of
the initial thunderstorms before they move east. Given that low-
level moisture so far is overperforming, thinking that MLCAPE values
between 750-1250 J/kg will be the norm east of the dryline with
effective shear values between 30-40 kts. This will be enough for
organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two. Should the
supecell potential pan out, forecast soundings in the vicinity show
wind profiles favorable for splitting supercells. With steep lapse
rates owing to cool temperatures aloft, large hail will be
possible... especially with any supercell that can develop. Won't
entirely rule out a hailstone up to 2" with a more robust supercell,
but that would have to be where the most robust low-level moisture
is located. Otherwise, inverted-V thermo profiles support damaging
winds with wind gusts up to 70 mph possible. There is still a
potential for storms in the southern TX Panhandle to grow upscale
this evening before exiting off to the east-southeast tonight.

Low-level moisture will stream in from the south tonight, and some
clouds are favored to move into portions of the southern and central
TX Panhandle late tonight and into tomorrow morning before
potentially breaking up toward the late morning/early afternoon
hours. A shortwave trough is expected to move toward the Panhandles
tomorrow afternoon, but there are questions regarding how long the
clouds will linger and how much destabilization will occur by the
mid to late afternoon hours when forcing will arrive. Wherever that
happens, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as well.
Low-level moisture and the mid to upper-level winds look to be more
favorable tomorrow, suggesting slightly greater severe thunderstorm
potential than today along with at least a very low tornado
threat... though as discussed, it is conditional upon clouds
clearing out early enough in the day.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The active convective pattern looks to continue through the
extended, and may actually peak this weekend. The flow aloft is
expected to become more amplified as a trough digs across western
NOAM and then slowly shifts across central CA, southern NV,
towards the Four Corners by Sunday. This will promote increased
mid and upper level southwest flow over the Rocky Mountains and
adjacent plains along with better moisture return at the surface.
Impulses in the southwest flow will lead to daily chances for
shower and thunderstorm development which will be augmented by
recovery from previous events and position of the dryline. A cold
front Thursday night could also play into timing and development
of storms. Ingredients will be available for severe storms each
day near the dryline, with shear being on the moderate side at 30
to 40+ knots through the weekend. Saturday looks to have the best
moisture return and dynamics for more widespread storms, but
Sunday actually has the best shear (50+kts Effective Shear) and
overall severe setup right now. Localized flooding may become more
of a concern each day for areas that see multiple rounds of
storms. Split flow ensues Sunday into Monday as the main trough
lifts northeast towards the northern plains while a secondary
trough lags behind across the southwest. The better storm chance
may shift east some, but should remain in the area. The CSU ML
Probabilities page agrees that some portions of the Panhandles
will continue to see severe potential through early next week.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through most of this forecast period.
Thunderstorms will possibly develop in the vicinity of KAMA
around mid-afternoon; have therefore included a PROB30 group to
account for that. Strong downdraft winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm that develops today. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are
expected to move in to KAMA Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  78  55  84 /  10  40  50  50
Beaver OK                  49  79  53  81 /  20  60  70  70
Boise City OK              45  79  50  80 /  10  30  40  40
Borger TX                  53  82  56  87 /  10  50  50  50
Boys Ranch TX              51  81  55  86 /  10  30  50  30
Canyon TX                  52  78  55  84 /  10  40  50  40
Clarendon TX               53  77  56  81 /  50  50  60  60
Dalhart TX                 46  80  50  83 /   0  30  40  30
Guymon OK                  48  80  52  84 /  10  60  50  40
Hereford TX                51  80  54  84 /  20  30  50  40
Lipscomb TX                53  77  55  80 /  30  60  60  70
Pampa TX                   53  77  56  82 /  20  60  60  60
Shamrock TX                53  77  56  79 /  40  60  70  70
Wellington TX              54  78  57  80 /  50  50  70  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...52

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
127 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-230630-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
127 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible tonight across the southeastern
Texas Panhandle. A strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, will be
possible across portions of the Panhandles on Wednesday through
Sunday. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
324 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

TXZ019-222100-
Donley TX-
324 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DONLEY COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 324 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Clarendon, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clarendon and Lelia Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 10106 3503 10076 3492 10068 3475 10068
      3475 10097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 238DEG 17KT 3483 10093

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Vanden Bosch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
328 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

TXZ018-019-222100-
Donley TX-Armstrong TX-
328 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ARMSTRONG AND
SOUTHWESTERN DONLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Goodnight, or 13 miles southwest of Clarendon, moving
north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Armstrong and southwestern Donley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 10101 3484 10116 3499 10113 3494 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 196DEG 12KT 3486 10111

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Vanden Bosch

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>