Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

- Low chance for thunderstorms in the combined Panhandles this
  afternoon and through the evening. This includes severe
  thunderstorms that can produce large hail and damaging winds.

- Another low chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
  evening that can turn severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

A dynamic atmosphere remains across the panhandles as low level
moisture continues to stream in from the Gulf. This moisture is
spread across the whole of the panhandles today and even further
west to the NM mountains. This lowers the chance that a dryline
will form today as the chance that dry air pushes far enough east
to the panhandles is low. This is a big issue for flaring
surface based thunderstorms today as it nixes a much needed
forcing mechanism. As it stand the atmosphere is conditional very
unstable with 2000-3000 J/Kg of available cap. This is seen
through a few high based thunderstorms that have managed to form
in NE OK panhandle from limited mid level moisture. The low level
moisture is cut off from this cape by subsidence and a cap.
Without a dryline we have to turn to other features that could
overcome the cap to initiate surface based convection. The most
likely is daytime warming which if it can hit the low 80s would
overwhelm the cap and initiate thunderstorms. The other feature is
a thermal gradient produced from the differential heating of the
clouded areas and sunny areas during this morning. This gradient
if it tightens could form a density gradient to add additional
lift breaking the cap. Barring these the only other feature is a
passing upper level trough that may add a little ascent to the
atmosphere today that would allow thunderstorms to flair. All in
all none of these features are slam dunk for causing surface based
thunderstorms so this makes the chance of any surface based
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening low. The timing for the
formation of any surface based thunderstorms is late this
afternoon and evening when the aforementioned features reach
there respective greatest extent. However, since the atmosphere
is so unstable any surface based storm that manages to form will
have a high chance of becoming severe. The wind profiles suggest
that these storms will become supercells producing large hail and
damaging winds. The low level wind fields are not really that
supportive of any tornadic formation but these cannot be fully
ruled out. Any surface thunderstorm that does manage to form has a
moderate chance of continuing through the evening and into the
overnight hours, so long as it doesn't become separated from the
low level moisture.

Thursday there is a moderate-high chance that the dry air will
push into the central portions of the panhandles. This will setup
a dryline N to S over central portions of the panhandles. The
dryline has a moderate chance of surging eastward during the
afternoon and evening hours which will act as the initiation
mechanism for thunderstorm development. Similar to today the
environment is conditionally unstable with 2000-3000 J/Kg which
will support strong to severe thunderstorms. The dynamics will
allow for the thunderstorms that form to become supercells
supporting large hail and damaging winds. The atmosphere is not
supportive of tornado formation but these cannot be fully ruled
out. Once these storms form they are likely to be progressive and
push east into OK proper by the later evening hours. Bottom line
is Thursday is just like today but will have the presences of the
dry line that will make the formation of thunderstorms more likely
than today.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Friday through Sunday there is a high chance for an closed low
weather system to swing across western CONUS as it first
approaches then passes across the southern plains. This will serve
to draw even more low level Gulf moisture across the panhandles.
This moisture when combined with the broad instability of the
weather system will have a high chance of producing rain showers
and thunderstorms. The amount of overturning within such an
environment would only allow for a very low chance that any
thunderstorm could become strong much less severe. While there is
a high chance for rain the amount of rainfall will have a
moderate- high chance of remaining under an inch. The exception is
areas that see heavier rainfall from the embedded thunderstorms
which would see locally high amounts. Under the cloudy skies the
temperatures have a high chance of cooling with highs dropping to
the 60s to low 70s for Friday and Saturday. These temperatures
only begin to warm again on Sunday as this weather system departs
leaving behind drier sunnier conditions. The drier conditions have
a moderate chance of persisting through Wednesday as flow from the
Gulf remains cut off. While it may be drier some lingering
moisture and a persistent upper level trough will have a low
chance of flaring isolated rain showers if not thunderstorm.
These would most likely occur during the later afternoon to
evening when daytime heating provides the most lift.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the 00Z conditions through the
majority of the TAF period. The only exception could be for KAMA
where a TEMPO group from 01-03Z has been added for TS potential
with erratic winds possible. Otherwise, winds will generally be
out of the south anbd southwest at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  83  53  70 /  20  30  20  50
Beaver OK                  54  81  49  63 /  40  60  50  50
Boise City OK              49  80  46  60 /  20  20  20  40
Borger TX                  57  86  53  69 /  20  30  20  50
Boys Ranch TX              57  86  52  69 /  20  20  20  40
Canyon TX                  55  83  53  72 /  20  30  20  40
Clarendon TX               56  80  55  72 /  30  60  30  50
Dalhart TX                 50  84  47  64 /  20  10  10  30
Guymon OK                  52  83  47  63 /  30  40  20  40
Hereford TX                54  84  52  75 /  20  20  20  40
Lipscomb TX                55  80  52  64 /  40  60  40  50
Pampa TX                   55  81  53  66 /  30  40  30  50
Shamrock TX                56  80  55  70 /  40  50  40  50
Wellington TX              57  80  56  74 /  40  50  40  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
212 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-240715-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
212 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Low chance for afternoon to evening thunderstorms. Some of these
thunderstorms can be strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds being the main threats. Low chance for localized flooding
from the thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Low chance for thunderstorms during Thursday afternoon and evening
along a dry line. Some of these may be strong to severe with large
hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Further rain
showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Low chance that any of
these produce localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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