Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
107 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

-Showers and storms in this afternoon and then again in the
 evening. Low chance for storms to be severe with 1" hail and 60
 mph winds.

-Wednesday through the end of the week will bring daily chances of
 thunderstorms, some that could reach severe criteria. Currently
 best chances remain on Wednesday but overall confidence in any
 severe storms is low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles with rounds of
rain showers and thunderstorms. Currently there is a small
disturbance from this weather system is moving across the
panhandles causing the ongoing line of rain showers and
thunderstorms. The rain showers and thunderstorms along this line
are more potent in the northern panhandles which were not worked
over by the early morning convection. In addition there is a small
MCV that has formed on the northern portions of the line which
will further aid thunderstorm development. Overall dynamics as
such that most of the thunderstorms along this line will remain
weak with a low chance for strong to severe storms. This line of
storms is moving at a fairly fast clip to the east such that it
should eject out of the panhandles by the mid afternoon hours.
Behind this line conditions may clear out allowing for some
daytime heating to rebuild instability. This instability will
come into play late this afternoon through this evening when the
main portions of this weather system passes through the
panhandles. This will have a high chance of flaring up another
line of rain showers and thunderstorms. Since the southern
panhandles is being worked over less by the current wave it stand
to reason that high instability will be located there. This means
the main portion of the weather system may be more active in the
southern panhandles than the northern. There is a low chance that
the storms with the main wave may become strong to severe with
winds and hail remaining the main threats. This activity has a
high chance of continuing into the overnight hours before finally
moving out of the panhandles along with the main portions of the
weather system. While all the rain and thunderstorms are occurring
there is a low chance for flooding through multiple rounds of rain
hitting the same spot. There is then a moderate chance for misty
to foggy conditions to develop during the early morning hours of
Tuesday following the departure of the rain/thunder. Then for
Tuesday a brief ridge have a high chance of passing across the
panhandles bringing more stable conditions. However this ridge
will not be sufficient to stop all convection with there being a
low chance for isolated thunderstorms during Tuesday afternoon. As
there is little in the way of upper level support it is very
unlikely that any storms on Tuesday will become strong much less
severe.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Another weather system has a high chance of impacting the southern
plains including the panhandles on Wednesday. The dynamics and
moisture of this system are such that it will have a moderate to
high chance of causing thunderstorms. In fact it looks like this
system may be capable of producing strong to severe thunderstorms
during the afternoon to evening hours of Wednesday. Thursday the
weather system pushes eastward which will still allow rain showers
and thunderstorms to form just at a lesser amount and intensity
compared to Wednesday. Then for the weekend there is a low to
moderate chance that high pressure starts to build back into the
southern plains. This would lead to only a low chance for daily
rain showers and thunderstorms as the high pressure would not be
strong enough to suppress all convection. However there is a
chance that tropical system formation off the SW coast of Mexico
get ingested within the large scale flow. If this comes to pass
then more moisture and instability may arrive in the southern
plains for the weekend instead of the high pressure. So confidence
in any forecast for the weekend into next week remains low at this
time as many uncertain variables remain in play.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles and all
terminals with rain showers, thunderstorms, low clouds, and
mist/fog. Currently a band of rain showers and thunderstorms is
passing across the panhandles impacting all terminals through the
early afternoon with MVFR or worse conditions. This band then
will move to the east allowing a brief window of improved
conditions at all terminals for the mid afternoon up to VFR. Then
for the late afternoon and evening another round of rain showers
and thunderstorms passed through degrading conditions again to
MVFR to IFR. Once this band departs in the late evening a deck of
low clouds will have a high chance of staying across all
terminals with IFR conditions. Then during the overnight hours
fog may develop under this low cloud deck leading to further
reduced conditions LIFR or below.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  74  56  77 /  50  10  10  40
Beaver OK                  50  71  52  76 /  30  10  20  60
Boise City OK              47  75  51  77 /  50  10  20  60
Borger TX                  54  76  56  80 /  40  10  10  40
Boys Ranch TX              52  76  56  81 /  50  10  20  50
Canyon TX                  52  75  55  78 /  50  10  20  40
Clarendon TX               54  73  56  75 /  50  10  10  30
Dalhart TX                 48  74  51  78 /  40  10  10  50
Guymon OK                  49  73  51  76 /  40  10  20  60
Hereford TX                52  77  56  79 /  50  10  20  40
Lipscomb TX                52  71  54  75 /  40  10  10  40
Pampa TX                   52  73  56  75 /  50  10  10  40
Shamrock TX                54  73  55  76 /  40  10  10  20
Wellington TX              56  73  56  77 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-270545-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1232 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms continue to impact the panhandles this afternoon and
then again this evening. A few of these storms may become strong
to severe with large hail and strong winds. Additionally the
storms may produce heavy rainfall that can cause localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

At least a moderate chance for thunderstorms each day Wednesday
through Friday. Then a low chance for thunderstorms through the
weekend. Currently there is a low chance for severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
216 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

TXZ014-015-019-261945-
Gray TX-Wheeler TX-Donley TX-
216 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WHEELER...EASTERN
GRAY AND NORTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles west of New Mobeetie to 3 miles west of
Alanreed. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mobeetie, New Mobeetie, Alanreed, Kellerville, Briscoe, and Mclean.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 127 and 146.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 10069 3519 10088 3562 10058 3561 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 320DEG 17KT 3552 10059 3521 10079

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

COR