Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

-Around a 10-20% chance of seeing a thunderstorm in the eastern
 Panhandles where a severe storm cannot be completely ruled out.

-Critical fire weather conditions expected for all of the
 Panhandles on Thursday.

-Portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle could see a strong or
 severe thunderstorm on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Latest 09Z satellite analysis shows the main H500 ridge axis
centered over the southern High Plains moving slowly to the east.
Once the main ridge axis shifts well to the east later this
morning into the early afternoon hours, this is when we will have
to watch for some thunderstorms to develop. Chances remain mostly
under 20 percent at this time. This is due to mainly weaker large
scale subsidence overall in the upper reaches of the vertical profile.
However, latest 16/00-06Z hi-res model and numerical data shows a
notable area of H850-700 (+)theta-e advecting northeast, well
ahead of the main deepening H500 trough off the southern
California coastline, which will allow Td values in the eastern
Panhandles to jump into the lower and mid 50s by this afternoon.
Coupled by subtle perturbation east of the aforementioned H500
trough moving NE into the Panhandles, in-conjunction with aided
lift within the region of the initial (+)theta-e surge into the
eastern Panhandles, we could see a thunderstorm or two develop, if
they can break the cap located in the 4-7 kft AGL in the log-p
vertical profile as noted by some of the latest data. If said cap
can break, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg as seen in the most
aggressive data sets, along with effective 0-6 km shear as high
as 30-40 kts, we could see a cell or two develop. Hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats with any storm that decide
to go severe. Overall, the environment has more working against
than for thunderstorm develop. But cannot rule out one or two
getting strong to severe. The northeastern combined Panhandles
later this afternoon approaching sunset will have the best timing
for a thunderstorm, but also cannot completely rule out the
eastern TX Panhandle seeing a thunderstorm as well. High
temperatures today will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Going into the day tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are
expected for the majority of the Panhandles, with further details
that can be found in the fire weather section of the area forecast
discussion. Steep sfc-500 height gradients ahead of the
approaching H500 positive tilted trough moving SE through the
Great Basin area with associated height falls throughout the day
will result in breezy to strong SW winds. The northwestern
combined Panhandles could have some wind headline throughout the
day tomorrow if a majority of the hi-res model data show some
accord of this occurrence. Warm SW sfc winds will result in high
temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s with mostly
clear skies throughout the day tomorrow. Clouds will be on the
increase tomorrow night ahead of our potential next round of
precipitation.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

A cold front will move south throughout the day on Friday to start
the long term forecast period. Temperatures on Friday will drop
behind the front to values closer to average for mid April.
Latest 16/00Z model and numerical data overall has the main front
slowly moving south throughout the day on Friday. Enough so where
thunderstorms for the SE Texas Panhandle will be possible.
Parameters are a bit all over, but enough instability and lift
ahead of the main front for the fa eastern TX Panhandle where a
strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.
Timing of cold front could change these thunderstorm probs so
check back for updated info as we get closer to Friday.

The main H500 trough will move eat across the southern High Plains
through Eater weekend. Rain chances will be highest across the
northern and eastern combined Panhandles, closest to the main
areas of lift associated with the system. But all will have some
chance of seeing rain throughout the coming weekend. In the wake
of the departing system early next week, dry conditions should
return before our next system towards the very end of the forecast
period. High temperatures on Saturday will be well below average
warming up back to near and above average going into early next
week.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will mainly be out of the south to southwest in the
15-20kt Gusting 25-30kts at times. After 02z gusts should weaken,
but then will ramp back up after 15z and gusts may be more in the
30-40kt range. Little bit of LLWS from 06-12z around 2kft agl at
KDHT and KAMA. Winds in the 40-45kt range generally out of the
west southwest.

Weber

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for all of the
Panhandles on Thursday. Max RFTI values will range from 4 to 6 in
the SE TX Panhandle to as high as 6 to 9 for the remainder of the
Panhandles. Min RH values by Thursday afternoon will drop to as
low as 6 percent, especially in the NW Panhandles. 20 ft winds
will peak around Thursday afternoon with SW winds peaking around
25-35 mph sustained with higher gusts at times. ERC values will
range quite a bit depending where in the Panhandles you are. Green
up has certainly begun in some locations. Based off the latest
data from our fire weather partners, ERC values will range the
40th to 60th percentile for the south central TX Panhandle to 70th
to 90th percentile for the remainder of the Panhandles with cured
fuels still reported in the NW combined Panhandles in particular.
Mostly clear skies throughout the day on Thursday will then have
increasing cloud coverage by Thursday evening ahead of our next
system with the potential for some rain.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                88  56  91  57 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  92  56  94  47 /  20  20   0   0
Boise City OK              86  50  86  40 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  92  59  95  55 /  20  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              90  54  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  88  54  91  56 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               87  59  93  61 /  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 87  48  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  89  51  91  43 /  20  10   0   0
Hereford TX                88  52  90  54 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                88  60  93  55 /  20  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   87  59  92  57 /  20  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                86  61  96  62 /  10  20   0   0
Wellington TX              86  59  96  62 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89

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