Wind Advisory 5, NWS Albany, NY

700 
WWUS71 KALY 130326
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-VTZ013-014-131100-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250213T1500Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-Eastern
Columbia-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Hancock, Berlin, Pittsfield, South
Egremont, Eagle Bridge, Dalton, Bennington, Stratton, North
Adams, Hoosick Falls, Great Barrington, Sandisfield, New Lebanon,
Stephentown, Florida, Londonderry, Woodford State Park, Pownal,
and Stamford
1026 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Berkshire County. In New York, Eastern 
  Columbia and Eastern Rensselaer Counties. In Vermont, Bennington 
  and Western Windham Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

TAW

805 
WWUS71 KALY 130802
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
302 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-VTZ013-014-132200-
/O.NEW.KALY.WI.Y.0006.250213T2200Z-250214T0900Z/
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250213T1500Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-Eastern
Columbia-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Berlin, North Adams, Sandisfield,
Bennington, Eagle Bridge, Pownal, Stratton, Hoosick Falls, South
Egremont, Great Barrington, Londonderry, Stamford, Florida,
Dalton, New Lebanon, Woodford State Park, Pittsfield, Hancock,
and Stephentown
302 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the first Wind Advisory, east to southeast winds 10 to 
  20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. For the second Wind Advisory, west 
  winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and Southern 
  Berkshire Counties. In New York, Eastern Columbia and Eastern 
  Rensselaer Counties. In Vermont, Bennington and Western Windham 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the first Wind Advisory, until 10 AM EST this morning. 
  For the second Wind Advisory, from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST 
  Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

VTZ015-132200-
/O.NEW.KALY.WI.Y.0006.250213T2200Z-250214T0900Z/
Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Guilford Center, Bellows Falls,
Brattleboro, and West Brattleboro
302 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Windham County.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Frugis

338 
WWUS71 KALY 131416
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
916 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-VTZ013-014-132230-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250213T1500Z/
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0006.250213T2200Z-250214T0900Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-Eastern
Columbia-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Florida, Stamford, Woodford State Park,
Pittsfield, Dalton, South Egremont, Sandisfield, Londonderry,
North Adams, Berlin, Pownal, New Lebanon, Hoosick Falls, Great
Barrington, Stephentown, Eagle Bridge, Hancock, Bennington, and
Stratton
916 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM 
EST FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and Southern 
  Berkshire Counties. In New York, Eastern Columbia and Eastern 
  Rensselaer Counties. In Vermont, Bennington and Western Windham 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

VTZ015-132230-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0006.250213T2200Z-250214T0900Z/
Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Bellows Falls, West Brattleboro, Guilford
Center, and Brattleboro
916 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM 
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Windham County.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

CS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
158 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cloudy and chilly day, expect wintry mix to overspread
the region tonight including freezing rain before temperatures
warm enough to transition mix to light rain showers for many
areas tomorrow morning before ending tomorrow afternoon. As
colder air returns, lake effect snow will impact the western
Mohawk Valley Thursday night into Friday before another storm
impacts the entire region over the weekend with more rain and
snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...

Key Message:

- Slippery travel conditions tonight into early Thursday due
  incoming wintry mix including a glaze of ice from freezing
  rain for all of eastern NY and western New England. Winter
  Weather Advisory will go into effect at 7PM tonight.

- Gusty winds reaching 30 to 40kts in western New England and
  the western Adirondacks tonight into early Thursday can
  result in downed tree limbs and isolated power outages.

Temperatures have struggled to warm today likely due to a
strengthening inversion aloft which is keeping the colder air
mass wedged near the surface. Most of the region remains in the
low to mid 20s early this afternoon with upper 20s to near 30 in
the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT. Mid and upper level clouds will
continuing streaming northward this afternoon and will lower
late this afternoon into this evening in response to strengthening
warm air advection ahead of our next incoming disturbance.

The leading edge of the strongest warm air and moisture advection
advances from southwest to northeast into eastern NY and western
New England this evening mainly from 00 UTC to 03 UTC. Strong
southwest flow aloft will support downsloping off the northern
and eastern Catskills leading to lower POPs for the Schoharie
County, parts of the Mohawk Valley and Capital District and only
expecting spotty/light snow showers to develop. In fact, looking
at the thermal profiles, the cloud temperatures look milder than -10C
so there may not be sufficient ice nuclei in the clouds to
supporting snow and p-type may end up being more freezing
rain/drizzle. Given some uncertainties, we maintained light
snow and slight chance freezing rain for these areas. It's
important to note that overall QPF and POP amounts for these
areas have decreased with the 12 UTC guidance today (especially
on the HRRR) and we trended our forecast downwards as well.
Thus, only expecting coating to less than an inch of snow/sleet
with a glaze of ice from freezing rain/drizzle overnight.
However, this wind regime should support upsloping across the
southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, southern
Greens and Berkshires so expecting snow to turn steady in these
areas shortly after onset this evening.

As our parent cyclone tracks up the Saint Lawrence River Valley
after Midnight tonight into early Thursday and southerly winds strengthen
in the low and mid-levels, the warm sector will race northward.
This will allow any snow to transition to sleet and eventually
freezing rain as the warm nose aloft strengthens. The southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens will hang onto to the snow the
longest and be the last to transition over to wintry mix by the
pre-dawn hours Thursday. Overall, expecting just coating to less
than an inch of snow in most valley areas of snow/sleet with a
glaze of ice from freezing rain/drizzle. Southern Adirondacks,
southern Greens, eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and Berkshires
look to receive 1 to 3 inches of snow/sleet and snow should be a
wetter consistency as SLRs decrease overnight in response to the
incoming warm nose. Despite the low snow/sleet amounts and ice,
still expecting slippery travel overnight as even a glaze of
ice on any untreated surfaces can be quickly lead to slippery
conditions.

Besides the wintry mix overnight, easterly to southeasterly sfc
winds in western New England and the western Adirondacks will
become quite breezy overnight with surface winds becoming
sustained 15 - 25kts and gusts reaching 30 to 40kts. Easterly
winds in Bennington County, VT will especially turn gusty thanks
to downsloping effects off the southern Greens with occasional
higher gusts up to 40-45kts possible. Probabilistic guidance
shows 30 to 50% probabilities for gusts to exceed 35kts in these
areas.

Temperatures tonight begin in the mid to upper 20s with upper
teens in the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley before
temperatures gradually warm after Midnight. Temperatures trend
into the low to mid 30s in the Hudson Valley from the Capital
District southward into the mid-Hudson Valley by early Thursday
with mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 -Winter Storm Watch issued for western Mohawk Valley for
  Thursday night into Friday, as localized lake effect snow
  totals may approach 7 inches for areas close to the Oneida
  County border.

Discussion:

Most areas will only see a coating to an inch or two of snow.
Some colder areas of southern VT and the Adirondacks could
locally see up to 4 inches, although most locations will not see
much snow with this system due to the limited QPF, poor ratios
and mixing with sleet/zr. A light glaze of ice can be expected
as well (locally up to two tenths across sheltered high terrain
areas) and a tenth or two of sleet is possible as well. Slippery
travel is anticipated for the Thursday morning commute,
especially on untreated surfaces and across northern areas and
higher elevations. After overnight lows rising through the 20s,
temps on Thursday will reach into the 30s, with some lower to
middle 40s possible across far southern areas. In addition,
gusty winds are possible on late Wed night into Thursday
morning, especially for western and high terrain areas, with
some gusts up to 30-35 mph at times.

By Thursday evening, the storm will be well past the area and
colder air will start to filter in behind the departing storm.
With temps cooling off at the surface and aloft, a band of lake
effect snow looks to develop off Lake Ontario. With the
northwest flow in place, this will primarily impact central NY
and into parts of the western Mohawk Valley. The band may drift
from the western Mohawk Valley towards parts of Schoharie County
at times, but a moderate accumulation is possible for parts of
far southwestern Herkimer County. Locally heavy accumulation
can't be ruled out between late Thursday night into Friday, so a
Winter Storm Watch has been issued for that area. Elsewhere, it
will be colder and windy for Thursday night into Friday with
some passing flurries. Temps will be in the teens and 20s on
Thursday night and won't be rising too much more on Friday
thanks to the strong cold advection in place.

Lake effect snow may start to wind down on Friday night, but it
will remain cold with a diminishing wind. Although skies will be
fairly clear to start Friday night, some clouds will be increase
late ahead of the next storm system, with lows in the single
digits and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Another potentially high-impact storm system is expected to bring
widespread precipitation, including snow, a wintry mix, and/or rain,
to the entire region Saturday and Sunday.

- Confidence in precipitation types and the timing of the transition
from snow to a mix or rain remains low.

- A period of very cold and windy weather with lake effect snow is
possible behind the departing storm system early next week.

Discussion: Very active long term period begins at 12z Saturday. A
TPV lobe centered over south-central Canada will eventually phase
with a potent southern stream shortwave disturbance Saturday night
into Sunday. The resulting surface low that forms near the lower
Mississippi River Valley will rapidly strengthen as it tracks towards
the northeast Saturday night and Sunday. The storm system will
likely track over NY State, as opposed to off the coast.

Out ahead of this system, an area of light to possibly moderate snow
is expected to overspread the region from west to east during the
day Saturday. This will be forced by isentropic lift along the
system's warm front and will occur beneath the right entrance region
of an anti-cyclonically curved upper jet streak that will be lifting
to our northeast. As the surface low intensifies and tracks closer
to our region, the warm front will eventually lift northwards,
allowing for the snow to transition to a wintry mix from south to
north, with a changeover to a cold rain possible on Sunday,
especially south of I-90. Precipitation could be heavy at times
Saturday night and Sunday, but will taper off to snow showers Sunday
evening or night.

Now, there remains considerable uncertainty in the exact storm
track, which will have large implications for how much wintry precip
(snow, sleet, freezing rain) our area sees. Confidence is fairly
high that even the Mid Hudson Valley will start as snow Saturday,
but confidence decreases substantially beyond that. Recent trends
have been for the TPV lobe in southern Canada to be located further
to the west, as well as for stronger downstream ridging over the
North Atlantic. Both of these trends are associated with a further
west shift in the storm track, and we have indeed seen that in the
ensemble mean MSLP fields over the past 24 hours or so. This is why
there has been a trend towards a warmer solution with higher
probabilities for a changeover to rain Sunday, especially south of
the Capital District. Nevertheless, there are still several ensemble
members, as well as the deterministic CMC, that have a colder
solution with more snow for our region. Even with this recent trend
warmer, NBM probabilities still show around a 25% chance of
exceeding advisory criteria (>4" of snow) near the I-84 corridor,
with higher values further north/in the higher elevations where
probabilities for >4" of snow are over 90%. Will mention that
despite the uncertainty, qpf amounts look to be over 1" for most of
the region, so this storm does have some potential for higher
impacts especially if the forecast trends back colder.

The surface low continues to intensify as it tracks into
southeastern Canada and becomes occluded beneath the upper low. The
cold front will track through the region Sunday night into Monday,
ushering in a very cold airmass in the storm's wake as the TPV lobe
swings by to our north through the first half of the week. Guidance
suggests 850 mb temperatures could approach -25C, which would
translate to highs in the 10s to 20s Monday and Tuesday with
overnight lows in the single digits to below zero. With a very tight
pressure gradient between the deep low to our northeast and a strong
high building over the center of the country, winds could become
quite gusty, making for wind chills that are substantially colder
than the actual air temperature. The combination of very cold
temperatures and strong low-level W/NW winds could also lead to the
development of a band of lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario that
could extend well into our forecast area early next week. While the
potential is there, will note that it is rather early to get any
more specific regarding the lake effect potential as even the larger-
scale details surrounding the track of the weekend storm remain
uncertain. Temperatures should begin to moderate more towards the
middle of the week, but then we will be monitoring the potential for
yet another storm system that could track somewhere near the east
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z/Thu...VFR conditions will continue through most of
the afternoon hours with cigs trending down toward lower VFR
levels if not high end MVFR. Low pressure system approaches
tonight with a period of snow or snow showers to start (TEMPO
included at all sites for onset), then transitioning to a wintry
mix overnight then rain, in some areas, Thursday morning,
before ending. Cigs/vsbys will fluctuate between IFR/MVFR during
times of precipitation. There could be some periods of drier
weather overnight as precipitation is trending more showery.
Cigs may trend mostly IFR after precipitation ends or tapers off
Thursday morning.

East to northeast wind will become south to southeasterly
tonight. A few gusts over 20 kt are possible at KALB/KPSF. Wind
will become variable Thursday morning at less than 10 kt.
Periods of LLWS are favored at KPOU/KPSF tonight into Thursday
morning with low level turbulence favored at KALB/KGFL.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHSN...SN.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN...FZRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN...FZRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Likely SHSN.
Washingtons Birthday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With
Gusts To 37 kts. Slight Chance of SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     evening for NYZ038.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Rathbun

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
404 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-131200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
404 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, most of east central and eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Another storm system is expected to bring another round of
widespread precipitation, including at least some snow or a wintry
mix to the region Saturday into Sunday.

Behind the storm system, much colder air will return to the region
for early next week. A Cold Weather Advisory could be needed for some
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report snowfall and ice amounts
to the National Weather Service in Albany New York via phone, email
or social media.

NYZ038-131200-
Southern Herkimer-
404 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Herkimer County in
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Another storm system is expected to bring another round of
widespread precipitation, including at least some snow or a wintry
mix to the region Saturday into Sunday.

Behind the storm system, much colder air will return to the region
for early next week. A Cold Weather Advisory could be needed for some
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report snowfall and ice amounts
to the National Weather Service in Albany New York via phone, email
or social media.